China's campaign of warplanes, balloons and fearsome rhetoric to intimidate voters in Taiwan's elections may have failed, but few expect President Xi Jinping to deviate from his strategy of maximum pressure.

Taiwan voters on Saturday elected independence-leaning Lai Ching-te as president, handing an unprecedented third consecutive term to the Democratic Progressive Party, which Beijing strongly opposes.

China, which split with Taiwan at the end of a civil war in 1949, regards the island as a renegade province that must eventually be reunified, by force if necessary.

In the days leading up to the vote, China demanded voters reject Lai's "evil path" and make the "right choice", while raising the spectre of war if the DPP retained power.

The rhetoric was backed by China continuing its near-daily military presence around Taiwan. Over the past 18 months, China has also held two rounds of large-scale war games in which it sent warplanes and ships to encircle the island.

After Lai's win, Taiwan told China to "face reality".

But China's campaign of intimidation, which has become widely regarded as one of Xi's signature policies, is likely to grow, according to analysts.

"We can expect Beijing to ratchet up tension and coercion against Taipei," Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told AFP.

"The era of two political parties on both sides of the strait... hashing out some kind of political consensus on unification is slipping away and Beijing knows it."

- No compromise -

China's official reactions immediately after the vote, while relatively muted, also signalled no room for compromise.

"Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

On state-controlled media, some commentary was far more strident.

Influential Chinese nationalist political commentator Hu Xijin wrote that the choices of Taiwan's voters were irrelevant.

"Strength and the existence of the option to use force are the prerequisites for peaceful unification," he wrote on social media site Weibo.

"In his first speech after winning the election, Lai didn't dare to sound as brash as he had previously -- isn't that because of fear?"

- Pressure campaign -

China must contend with the fact that its threats may even have pushed voters into the hands of the "separatist" forces it is set against.

China's leaders have seen a similar dynamic before.

In 1996, Beijing launched a series of missile tests near the island in a failed bid to stop voters from electing independence-leaning Lee Teng-hui.

Xi and his officials could take heart from the fact that many in Taiwan saw a vote for Lai as a vote for continuity -- and not for full independence, one expert said.

"Taiwan's voters demonstrated their preference for preserving the status quo, not for shifting the terms of relations across the Taiwan Strait," Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and a China scholar at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.

"China's leaders understand this," he said. "While Beijing does not celebrate the status quo, there are no indications that it will soon launch conflict to alter it."

The clock is ticking: CIA director William Burns said last year that President Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be ready to carry out a successful invasion of the island by 2027.

That "timetable remains the same", Hong Kong-based Chinese politics expert Willy Lam told AFP.

"The key factor is the Xi leadership's perception of the gap between (his) forces on the one hand, and those of the US and its Asian allies such as Japan on the other."

On Pingtan island -- China's closest point to Taiwan's main island this week -- one local told AFP that he felt unification was closer than ever.

"Hong Kong has returned, Macau has returned, it's just Taiwan," Chen Suqing, a 75-year-old retired businessman, said.

"We must liberate Taiwan in this generation," he said.

"If Taiwan is not unified and becomes independent, we will fight."

Biden says US does not support Taiwan’s independence following election

President Biden had a short message for Taiwan after its election of a new president on Saturday.

“We do not support independence,” Biden said on the South Lawn Saturday.

Taiwan voters elected Vice President Lai Ching-te, who goes by William, as president Saturday, keeping the ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party in power for its third straight term.

The result of the election will determine the country’s relations with China for the next four years. China claims to rule the strip of water between the countries and claims sovereignty over the island despite it being self-governed for nearly three-quarters of a century.

China previously warned that the election was critical, as voters could be choosing between war and peace.

Biden’s stance reinforces the One China policy in recognizing Beijing’s claims that Taiwan is historically part of the mainland. The U.S. has committed to informal relations with Taipei.

After Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Nov., he said he “made clear” China should not interfere in Taiwan’s election. He said the U.S. maintains the One China agreement and he does not have plans to change it.

The U.S. announced Wednesday that it would be sending an unofficial delegation to Taiwan after the island conducted its election. The delegation will include former high-ranking U.S. officials. Biden has sent unofficial delegations to Taiwan in 2021 and 2022.

“Given our unofficial relationship with Taiwan, we often send these high-level unofficial delegations of former government officials to Taipei,” a senior Biden administration official said. “We have a decades-long tradition of doing so.”

It’s unknown how China will react to the new delegation and Lai’s win, but the country previously told the U.S. that it will “not make any concession or compromise” on Taiwan.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Lai on his victory in a statement Saturday and offered congratulations to the Taiwan people for “demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process.”

Lai, who said he is open to talks with China, posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter thanking voters for electing him and pledged to uphold peace in the Taiwan Straight and to be “a force of good in the international community.”

'No to the old path': Taiwan's voters move on from China conflict

Taiwanese newspapers show the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's victory in the presidential election on the front pages a day after the poll 

A day after defying Beijing's threats by electing a new president that China regards as a dangerous separatist, Taiwanese voters brushed off their sabre-rattling neighbour across the narrow strait.

Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won comfortably in Saturday's election -- despite China repeatedly warning the Taiwanese that electing him would put the island on an "evil path" to war.

Communist China, which claims self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory, strongly opposes Lai and the DPP, seeing them as too favourable to independence -- a red line for Beijing.

China has never ruled out using force to take Taiwan, and Beijing's threats have loomed over the election campaign.

Retiree Cindy Huang told AFP that Lai's victory over Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) -- seen as more favourable to Beijing -- showed that Taiwan wanted to move on from decades of anxiety about China.

"Taiwan has come out, we don't want to go back to the old path," the 58-year-old told AFP.

"We don't want to be tied to China anymore."

- Dire straits -

Beijing insists Taiwan is part of China in the same way as Macau and Hong Kong are, but the experience of the former British-ruled banking hub has alarmed Taiwanese voters.

After years of allowing Hong Kong limited freedoms under the "one country, two systems" doctrine, Beijing has cracked down hard on dissent with a national security law implemented after city-wide protests for greater liberty.

"That protest (in Hong Kong) had a profound impact on young people in Taiwan, and made us want Taiwan to be recognised separately and independently in the world," university clerk Hana told AFP.

Her friend Mike, a construction worker, said the current set-up, in which Taiwan is independent in practice -- with its own government, flag, military and economy -- was working.

"I just want to maintain the status quo, meaning not getting any worse," he said, dismissing the idea of China seizing the island as empty threats.

"China has been chanting those strong words for 70 years but they have not invaded us."

Lai and the DPP have toned down past rhetoric pushing for full independence, arguing that since Taiwan is essentially sovereign, there is no need for a formal declaration that would enrage Beijing.

A 40-year-old factory worker surnamed Wang, enjoying the warm Taipei sunshine with her two chinchillas, said she was happy with the arrangement.

"Taiwan is a de facto independent country so it doesn't really matter whether the world will recognise that," Wang said.

"I think the election results show that Taiwanese people want to maintain the status quo and preserve our own way of life."

Saturday's election saw a shift in the island's political dynamics as the upstart populist Taiwan People's Party (TPP) won more than 25 percent of the vote, disrupting the traditional DPP-KMT duopoly.

TPP and its charismatic presidential candidate Ko Wen-je promised a "reasonable and pragmatic" option for voters weary of the two main parties.

While Ko finished in third place, for some younger Taiwanese his party represents a refreshing alternative to the two establishment outfits.

- Status quo -

University student Stephanie Chen missed the election as she is still a few days from her 20th birthday -- the legal voting age in Taiwan.

For her, despite China's dire warnings across the Taiwan Strait, war is a distant prospect -- unimaginable almost -- and TPP offered inspiring new ideas.

Chen said she would have voted for TPP if she could "because Ko's initiatives seem more creative and less conservative".

"I prioritise those who can do better in managing public finance and the government," she said.

Alan Li, a civil engineer who voted for TPP, said that for him too, domestic rather than diplomatic policies were his priority.

The 30-year-old said he wanted a change in government as the rise in property prices in the past few years had become intolerable for young people like him.

His partner, Jane Wu, also 30, echoed other voters' calls to maintain the status quo with China, hoping Lai would not push too hard for independence.

"Taiwan and China are de facto two countries and have been so for a very long time. An official recognition in law is not really necessary," said Wu, who works in manufacturing.

Taiwan president-elect Lai Ching-te has steered the island toward democracy and away from China

 

APTOPIX Taiwan Election

Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, left, celebrates his victory with running mate Bi-khim Hsiao in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in Taiwan’s presidential election on Saturday and his opponents conceded, a result that will chart the trajectory of the self-ruled democracy’s relations with China over the next four years.