As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the conflict will be determined not just on the battlefield but also in Western capitals and other places far from the front lines.

Widow of killed serviceman Aloshkin visits a local cemetery, in Dnipropetrovsk region.

With Ukrainian forces on the back foot, short of ammunition and forced to retreat in some areas, Kyiv's ability to repel Russia's invasion depends heavily on Western military, financial and political backing.

Here are some of the factors that may influence Western support for Ukraine in the year ahead:

U.S. AID PACKAGE IN CONGRESS

A bill stuck in the U.S. Congress that includes some $60 billion in aid for Ukraine - much of it military - is vital for Kyiv's forces, Western and Ukrainian officials say.

"Every week we wait means that there will be more people killed on the frontline in Ukraine," NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg told a major security conference in Munich last weekend.

The U.S. Senate passed the bill, which also includes aid for Israel and Taiwan, on Feb. 13. But it faces strong resistance from Republicans close to ex-President Donald Trump in the House of Representatives. House Speaker Mike Johnson has resisted pressure from the White House to call a vote on the bill.

European officials said they were somewhat more positive about the legislation's prospects after discussions with U.S. lawmakers at the Munich conference but expected it would still take some time before the measure passes, if it does at all.

AMMUNITION SUPPLY

Much of the war has descended into grinding artillery battles, with both sides firing thousands of shells every day.

Ukraine could fire more shells than Russia for much of 2023 but the tables have turned as Moscow has ramped up production and imported rounds from North Korea and Iran, analysts say.

Michael Kofman, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think-tank, estimates Russian artillery is firing at five times the rate of Ukraine's.

A vital factor for Kyiv this year will be "whether Western partners can catch up to Russian artillery production and supply Ukraine with the shells and barrels they need", said Professor Justin Bronk, a researcher at British defence think tank RUSI.

WEAPONS DECISIONS

Ukrainian leaders have also been pushing their Western counterparts to deliver new weapons systems, above all longer-range missiles to strike further behind Russian lines such as U.S. ATACMS and Germany's Taurus.

"We can't increase the production of ammunition overnight. But we can take decisions immediately to deliver to the Ukrainians weapons they really need," said former NATO boss Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a close ally of the Ukrainian government.

The U.S. has supplied only older, medium-range ATACMS but the Biden administration is now working towards delivering newer longer-range weaponry. However, any such move may depend on approval of the aid bill currently held up by the House.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has resisted entreaties from Kyiv and some NATO allies to supply the highly advanced Taurus system. German officials have cited concerns that the missiles could escalate the war inside Russian territory and could be seen as more direct German involvement in the conflict.

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The war in Gaza, triggered by the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, means Western leaders have had less time and political energy to devote to Ukraine. If it deteriorates further or escalates into a regional war, that will be even more the case.

Also, leaders in the Global South have accused the West of double standards over its attitudes to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, making it more difficult for Kyiv and its allies to rally support for a summit in support of Ukraine's peace blueprint.

"Russia is definitely benefiting from those developments," said Vsevolod Chentsov, Ukraine's ambassador to the European Union.

"We work with the Global South, we try to engage them as much as possible in our efforts ... We keep working on that, it's a difficult issue."

NATO SUMMIT, WASHINGTON, JULY 9-11

The summit may not directly affect the battlefield but could affect the political mood and morale in Ukraine.

Ukraine and some of its supporters continue to push NATO to invite Kyiv to join the military alliance - whose members pledge to treat an attack on one of them as an attack on all - or at least bring the country closer to membership.

But the United States, NATO's predominant power, and Germany are among those resisting such a step, arguing it could draw the alliance closer to a direct conflict with Russia, diplomats say.

Rasmussen, the former NATO boss, is working with the Ukrainian government and a group of international figures on a proposal that would set out a clear path to membership, with the aim of influencing the outcome of the Washington summit.

U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Trump was a fierce critic of NATO as president, repeatedly threatening to pull out of the alliance. He cut defence funding to NATO and frequently said that the United States was paying more than its fair share.

On Russia's war in Ukraine, Trump has called for de-escalation and complained about the billions spent so far, although he has put forward few tangible policy proposals.

President Joe Biden, 81, made the controversial decision to run for a second term in large part because he was convinced he would face Trump, 77, and because he thinks he is the Democrat who can beat him in the November election.

But public opinion polls show the him tied with Trump and Americans continue to worry about high prices and question his age, his economic plans and his policies on the border and in the Middle East.

Trump has held a commanding lead against his rivals for the Republican nomination despite his mounting legal troubles. However, a Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month showed that one in four self-identified Republicans and about half of independents responding said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury.

Russia claims gains in east Ukraine as war anniversary approaches

Russia claimed the capture of Avdiivka.

Russia claimed on Thursday its forces had advanced further in east Ukraine, putting Kyiv on the defensive days before the two-year anniversary of the war.

Ukraine has faced intense pressure on its eastern front in recent months as it grapples with ammunition shortages and hold-ups to much-needed Western military aid.

The Russian defence ministry said Thursday it captured Pobeda, a small village about five kilometres (three miles) west of Donetsk city on the front line.

"On the Donetsk front, units of the 'Southern' group of troops liberated the village of Pobeda and improved their position along the front line," it said.

The capture, if confirmed, would mark another step westwards for Moscow, which last week seized the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka after months of battle.

Ukraine said in a briefing later Thursday that it was "holding back enemy forces" in Pobeda, but did not explicitly refute Moscow's claim.

"Russians are concentrating their main activity on the Donetsk region," Ukraine's senior commander in the area Oleksandr Tarnavsky said, without elaborating.

The capture of Avdiivka last week, weeks after the nearby town of Marinka fell to Russian forces in December, marked a turning point for Moscow after months of deadlocked fighting.

Russia has for months been ramping up arms production and driving massive human resources into its offensive, at what Kyiv says is an enormous human toll.

- Kherson bridgehead -

As Russia claimed advances in the east, Ukraine said its forces had struck a Russian training ground in the south, on the Moscow-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro river.

Kyiv has managed to hold a thin bridgehead on the eastern bank of the river in the southern Kherson region since last year, but its forces have not claimed substantial progress since.

Ukraine struck Wednesday, hitting a range where Russian storm troops were training, military spokeswoman Nataliya Gumenyuk said.

She told AFP that around 60 Russian troops were "killed or seriously wounded" when three strikes hit the training ground near the village of Podo-Kalynivka.

The Telegram channel of the southern defence forces posted aerial video footage showing explosions and soldiers lying on the ground.

The training ground Ukraine targeted was being used by soldiers deployed to attack the bridgehead, Gumenyuk said.

Ukraine reportedly carried out a similar strike on a training ground near the Russian-controlled eastern town of Volnovakha in the Donetsk region on Tuesday, with numerous casualties.

Neither side officially confirmed this.

Putin's regime lacks domestic capacity to supply enough ammunition for his Ukraine forces, say western officials

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is set to enter its third year.

Vladimir Putin’s regime does not have sufficient domestic capacity to supply enough ammunition for his forces locked in the Ukraine war, western officials said on Wednesday.

But they do not believe he has given up on his “maximalist goals of subjugating Ukraine”.

However, they questioned whether Putin has a “meaningful plan” beyond continuing the conflict in the hope that his willingness to throw Russian manpower and equipment in sufficient quantity into the warzone will eventually pay off.

“Russia’s domestic ammunition production capabilities are currently insufficient for meeting the needs of the Ukraine conflict,” said one western official.

North Korea is reported to have been shipping large quantities of ammunition to Russia, and Iran to have provided hundreds of “kamikaze” drones.

Putin’s regime has also reportedly been “requisitioning military equipment” which it was planning to send to other states.

But Russian forces have seized the city of Avdiivka as Ukrainian troops, suffering ammunition and artillery shortages, were forced to withdrew.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN that Avdiivka would not have fallen had Kyiv received weapons held up by the US Congress’ failure to approve a large aid package.

The United States has provided Ukraine with about $111 billion (£88 billion), largely in weapons but also equipment and humanitarian assistance, and a new aid package of $95 billion (£75 billion) is stalled in Congress after passing the Senate, with Republicans blocking the move to further support Kyiv.

Britain has urged Allies to continue to provide military, aid and diplomatic support to Ukraine to defeat Putin.

After the failure of Ukraine to pierce Russian front lines in the east and south last year, Moscow has been trying to grind down Ukrainian forces just as Kyiv ponders a major new mobilisation.

Meanewhile, European Union states on Wednesday approved a 13th package of Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia, banning nearly 200 entities and individuals accused of helping Moscow procure weapons or of involvement in kidnapping Ukrainian children.

“We must keep degrading Putin’s war machine,” tweeted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“We are also further cutting Russia’s access to drones.”

The new package will see 193 entities and individuals added to the list of those banned from traveling to the EU or doing business there, but no fresh measures against specific economic sectors, EU diplomatic sources said.

The sources said the focus of the listings is roughly split between entities and individuals that are part of Russia’s military industrial complex and those involved in trafficking and kidnapping Ukrainian children.

One North Korean and one Belarusian firm were also added, the sources said.

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court said last March that Russia had transferred “at least hundreds” of children from orphanages and care homes in occupied regions of Ukraine, and “many” have been given up for adoption.

The ICC indicted officials including Putin for abducting Ukrainian children, which it called a war crime.

Ukraine says Russia has removed more than 4,000 children.

The new measures also focus on the procurement network supporting Russia’s military, especially the supply chain to make drones. Twenty-seven companies were added to the Annex IV list, which means European firms cannot sell dual-use goods to them.

The companies added are mostly Russian and include three mainland Chinese firms and one Hong Kong-based company, the sources said.

The package will be formally approved in time for the second anniversary of the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

In eastern Ukraine, Russia’s top general, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, visited Russian troops to discuss the next steps after capturing Avdiivka in the Donetsk province, state media reported on Wednesday.

Putin’s forces seized the city after suffering heavy losses, with reports of more than 1,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded in a single day.

The Russian president said on Tuesday that his military would push further into Ukraine after the fall of Avdiivka.

Gerasimov was shown awarding medals to Russian troops involved in taking Avdiivka and he was given a report by the commander in charge of the Russian assault, Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev, state media said.

War in Ukraine Is Turning in Putin’s Favor After Months of Stalemate

As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters a third year, President Vladimir Putin’s forces have shifted to the offensive and captured the eastern city of Avdiivka after months of fighting. In a conflict where momentum has ebbed and flowed, the mood is now noticeably darker in Kyiv.President Volodymyr Zelenskiy changed his military leadership amid disputes over conscription of new soldiers and battlefield strategy. His troops are running low on ammunition and weapons, with political infighting in Western capitals holding up deliveries and aid.

Millions of Ukrainians are still displaced from their homes. The death toll has been the highest in any European conflict since World War II, but Russia and Ukraine are treating their losses as state secrets.

Here’s a timeline of key events.

Avdiivka Falls

Feb. 17, 2024

Ukraine’s military withdrew from Avdiivka, giving the advancing Russian forces a major battlefield victory. Troops will move to the defensive “on more favorable lines,” army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

Navalny Dies in Prison

Feb. 16, 2024

Russian activist Alexey Navalny, who had come out strongly against the war, fell ill and died at a maximum-security camp, Russia’s prison service said, triggering global outrage.

His death sent an unmistakable signal of the dangers of standing up to Putin’s increasingly repressive regime.

Military Chief Replaced

Feb. 8, 2024

Zelenskiy replaced army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, ending weeks of speculation over a deepening rift in Ukraine’s leadership and stoking uncertainty over the direction of the war.

EU Approves Ukraine Funding

Feb. 1, 2024

European Union leaders clinched a deal on a €50 billion ($54 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban caved to their demands and lifted his veto.

The agreement proves “that we stand by Ukraine and I think it will be an encouragement for the US also to do their fair share,” Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, said as US funding remained stalled in Congress.

Massive Attack Across Ukraine

Dec. 29, 2023

Russian forces pounded mostly civilian targets in Ukraine with the largest missile and drone barrage of the invasion to date — days after Moscow blamed Kyiv for a strike on a military ship in Crimea.

Homes, schools, a shopping mall and a maternity center were among the targets. At least 33 people were killed.

EU Opens Membership Talks With Kyiv

Dec. 14, 2023

EU leaders agreed to open membership talks with Ukraine in a historic win for the nation.

“A clear signal of hope for their people and for our continent,” European Council President Charles Michel wrote in a post on X.

Putin Makes Bid for Fifth Term

Dec. 8, 2023

Putin said he’d run for a fifth term, kicking off a widely expected campaign in which the Kremlin will seek to show he retains broad popular support for the war.

Zaluzhnyi Declares Stalemate

Nov. 1, 2023

Zaluzhnyi, then still Ukraine’s top military commander, told The Economist the war had reached a stalemate and made a comparison to World War I trench warfare.

The comments irked Zelenskiy, who publicly contradicted the characterization.

Biden Vows Funding Fix

Oct. 2, 2023

President Joe Biden urged House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to follow up quickly with funding for Ukraine hours after Congress passed a spending bill without it to avoid a US government shutdown.

The standoff foreshadowed a long battle in Congress over financing for Kyiv, leaving the US with no money to finance more weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Skepticism Grows in Washington

Sept. 22, 2023

Zelenskiy said Ukraine would continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, during a trip to Washington, vowing to keep the pressure up on Russian forces despite slow progress.

In contrast with his visit during the first months of the war, the Ukrainian leader faced growing skepticism, particularly from Congressional Republicans.

Grain Ship Leaves Ukrainian Port

Sept. 19, 2023

The first grain ship in over two months left one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, as Kyiv defied Russia’s effective maritime blockade following the collapse of a safe-passage deal.

Zelenskiy Fires Defense Minister

Sept. 4, 2023

Zelenskiy announced a significant wartime cabinet shakeup as he ramped up an anti-graft crackdown.

Kyiv Cites Progress on Southern Front

Aug. 28, 2023

Ukrainian forces pierced the first line of Russian fortifications in the nation’s southeast. The defense ministry said Ukrainian soldiers had made slow progress in clearing heavily mined areas to create approach corridors for a larger force to fight through the first main line of Russian trenches, bunkers and tank traps.

Russia Raises Threat Level in Black Sea

Aug. 5, 2023

Ukraine attacked an oil tanker it said was supplying Russian forces and warned that ports, including commodity hubs, could be at risk in the escalation in the area around the Black Sea.

Russia Ends Grain Deal

July 17, 2023

Russia quashed the Ukraine grain-export deal nearly a year into the agreement, heightening uncertainty over global food supplies and escalating tensions in the region. The deal had marked a rare example of cooperation during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The corridor’s shutdown hit key buyers like China, Spain and Egypt.

Prigozhin Revolts

June 24, 2023

Putin condemned leaders of the Wagner mercenary group as traitors to Russia in a late-night speech to the nation, after Yevgeny Prigozhin's mercenaries came within 200 kilometers of Moscow. Prigozhin's men turned back after their leader struck a deal with Putin and the Wagner chief died two months later when a private plane crashed, killing everybody on board.

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Begins

June 9, 2023

Ukraine’s new NATO-standard tanks and fighting vehicles appeared in battlefield images as Kyiv’s long-awaited counteroffensive got underway.

Kakhovka Dam Destroyed

June 6, 2023

Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up a giant dam and unleashing an environmental catastrophe, with floodwater sweeping across the south of the country. The Kremlin denied responsibility and said Ukraine was behind the breach at the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant.

Russia Picks Up Missile Barrage

May 29, 2023

Russia ramped up air strikes on military facilities and infrastructure across the country, as Ukraine prepared a counteroffensive to try to take back territory. Russia hit an airbase in western Ukraine, damaging five aircraft and the runway, and targeted the nation’s capital with ballistic missiles.

Bakhmut Falls

May 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces lost control of Bakhmut after months of fierce fighting. Russia claimed that the Wagner mercenary group had taken the embattled eastern city.

Kyiv Shoots Down Hypersonic Missile

May 6, 2023

Ukraine’s military confirmed the interception of a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile after it deployed Patriot air-defense systems obtained from Western allies.

IMF Changes Rules, Approves $15.6 Billion

March 31, 2023

The International Monetary Fund’s board signed off on a $15.6 billion aid package for Ukraine, the final approval for the institution’s first-ever loan to a nation at war.

A group of Ukraine’s creditors supported the unprecedented deal, which required the IMF to change its lending rules, with assurances that they’d extend a debt-repayment standstill for the duration of the program. The creditors — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US — urged other bilateral and private lenders to help restore debt sustainability for Ukraine.

Read More: IMF Board Approves $15.6 Billion Loan for Ukraine Amid War

ICC Issues Arrest Warrant for Putin

March 17, 2023

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes related to the alleged abduction of children from Ukraine, a largely symbolic move that the Kremlin shrugged off. A year earlier, atrocities committed by Russian troops were discovered after they retreated from areas near Kyiv and in the north.

US, Germany Announce Tank Deliveries

Jan. 25, 2023

The US announced it would send Ukraine 31 M1 Abrams battle tanks, adding to a German commitment to supply some of its top-line armor and infusing the country with a major new capability as it looked to pry Russian forces from the east.

Zelenskiy Goes to Washington

Dec. 22, 2022

On his first trip outside Ukraine since the war began, Ukraine’s president delivered an address to the US Congress, pressing Washington for planes and more money, portraying the war as a battle of democracy against tyranny.

US Sends Patriots

Dec. 14, 2022

The US opted in favor of sending Patriot air and missile defense batteries to Ukraine, fulfilling a key demand from Kyiv. Zelenskiy had urgently sought the system, saying it was needed to counter the relentless barrage of Russian missiles targeting Ukraine’s military as well as civilian and energy infrastructure.

NATO Defuses Standoff After Missile Hits Poland

Nov. 16, 2022

NATO and Poland said there was no evidence that a missile which struck Polish territory was an intentional Russian attack as governments in the military alliance moved to defuse the incident. Biden informed G-20 counterparts that the strike was a result of Ukrainian air defense. The dial-back meant NATO wouldn’t invoke Article 4 of its charter, which would trigger consultations on a military response.

Ukraine Retakes Kherson

Nov. 11, 2022

Ukrainian troops entered the southern city of Kherson after Russian forces abandoned the regional capital which they had taken during the first months of the war and fled across a major waterway — marking a significant setback for Moscow as the two sides dug in for winter.

Russia Claims to Annex Occupied Territory

Sept. 30, 2022

Putin vowed his annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine was irreversible, as he formalized Europe’s biggest land grab since World War II, and accused the West of trying to subjugate his country.

Grain Corridor Established

July 22, 2022

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a deal aimed at releasing millions of tons of grain through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports that aimed to help shore up global food supplies.

Mariupol Falls

May 18, 2022

Russian authorities said nearly 1,000 Ukrainian fighters defending Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant “surrendered” after a months-long battle. Moscow captured the important port, where Russian forces established a land bridge between Crimea and separatist republics in the Donbas.

The resistance of the Azovstal fighters against overwhelming odds brought them heroic status among Ukrainians.

Russia Attacks

Feb. 24, 2022

Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine after Putin vowed to “demilitarize” the country and replace its leaders. The government in Kyiv called Russia’s actions a “full-scale invasion” as it declared martial law, called for international support including harsher sanctions and for citizens to take up arms.