The surprise appearance of China’s newest stealth fighter on China’s oldest aircraft carrier raised eyebrows this month. Is the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy planning to deploy the Shenyang J-35 aboard the aging flattop Liaoning and her sister vessel Shandong, and not just on the newer – and much bigger – carrier Fujian?

If so, it could complicate US Navy war plans as the Americans factor in the growing capability of the PLAN’s growing carrier fleet.

At present, the PLAN – which by some measures is the world’s biggest navy – has just two operational carriers, compared to the US Navy’s 11. The 61,000-ton Liaoning, a rebuilt ex-Soviet carrier that entered Chinese service in 2012, was the first. The slightly improved and newly-built sister ship Shandong joined the fleet in 2019.

The non-nuclear Liaoning and Shandong represent huge leaps forward for the Chinese fleet, but they’re not without their liabilities. Most seriously, both lack the steam- or electrically-powered catapults that are standard on the Americans’ 100,000-ton, nuclear-powered carriers.

The Chinese carriers launch their planes under their own power via an angled ramp on their bows. That method imparts much less energy than a catapult does, and that in turn weighs on a plane’s payload. The Boeing F/A-18E/F, the US Navy’s main carrier-borne fighter, can launch with eight tons of weapons under its wings. A J-15 can launch with just 1.5 tons of weapons.

All that is to say, China’s carriers are much less useful than America’s carriers, because China’s carrier planes can’t carry very much and still get safely off their carriers’ decks.

The PLAN’s newest carrier, the 80,000-ton Fujian, promises to change that when she finally completes sea trials and joins the fleet sometime in the next few years.

The non-nuclear Fujian has catapults. So she can launch older, non-stealthy J-15 fighters with heavier payloads. And she can safely operate a wider array of aircraft, as well – including heavy radar-early-warning planes. It’s not for no reason that Chinese industry is racing to develop new carrier plane types for Fujian.

The still-in-development J-35 is the most advanced of these new planes. A rough analogue to the Americans’ Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter, the J-35 appears to possess impressive radar-evading features and should be compatible with all of the PLAN’s best munitions.

Fujian embarking J-35s should be a tough opponent for US carriers, which are just beginning to embark their own F-35C stealth fighters. And the appearance of a non-flying J-35 mock-up on Liaoning’s deck this winter hints that the Chinese plan to fly the new jet from their older carriers, too – compounding the threat. If China ever makes good on its threats and invades Taiwan, and the United States honors its commitment to defend the island democracy – far from a foregone conclusion, given the increasing isolationism of the US Republican Party – American and Chinese flattops and their stealth fighters could clash in the western Pacific.

The Americans could face Chinese carrier-borne stealth fighters coming from three directions. If there’s any comfort to be found in this dire scenario, it’s that J-35s flying from Liaoning and Shandong will suffer the same constraints the older vessels’ current J-15 fighter suffer.

Specifically, they might carry modest loads of weapons in order to ensure they can get into the air via a simple ramp. So J-35s operating from Liaoning and Shandong might not haul heavy anti-ship missiles and make a run at American vessels. Instead, they might stick to lighter air-to-air missiles – and focus on fighting American aircraft – or carry a few precision bombs for strike missions.

This is an impairment, but not necessarily a crippling one. Just ask the Royal Navy, which flies vertical-landing F-35B jump jets from its two 72,000-ton, non-nuclear carriers HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales. The British carriers have ramps, not catapults, just like the older Chinese carriers do.

Better yet, ask the US Marine Corps, which flies vertical-landing F-35B jump jets from nine US Navy amphibious assault ships, all of which burn conventional fuel and none of which have catapults or ramps.

Launching without assistance, a Marine F-35B usually carries just a few tons of weapons, and counts on its stealth to compensate for its relative lack of firepower. A J-35 flying from Liaoning or Shandong could do the same.

All that is to say, the Americans should assume all of China’s aircraft carriers are about to embark stealth fighters. They should get ready to fight them.