U.S. President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs against Chinese imports, reaching an unprecedented 145 percent in some cases, represent the most dramatic shift in the United States’ economic relationship with China in decades. Trump has correctly identified a genuine problem: The United States’ dangerous dependency on a strategic rival. But his approach reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of both basic economics and sensible strategy.

Economic separation from China commands rare bipartisan support in Washington’s otherwise polarized political landscape. Both Democrats and Republicans recognize that China’s state capitalism, intellectual property theft and market manipulations have distorted global trade in ways that threaten U.S. prosperity. Where that consensus collapses, however, is on implementation, and the Trump administration’s blunt-force approach is creating economic chaos without addressing the United States’ underlying vulnerabilities.

What is needed is a surgical decoupling. By contrast, Trump’s approach is more akin to economic amputation without anesthesia. The consequences of his tariffs will be devastating. Consumer prices will climb. Supply chains will buckle. And Americans will feel every bit of the pain as Trump’s policies create the perfect conditions for stagflation.

Most concerning is that there’s no evidence these tariffs can actually rebuild U.S. manufacturing capacity, which is ostensibly Trump’s objective in imposing them. In fact, there is every reason to suggest they can’t. Tariffs are economically destructive, and the ones imposed by this administration are potentially unconstitutional and therefore possibly transient. What is needed is a real plan to resurrect U.S. domestic manufacturing capabilities that have eroded over decades. Tariffs can only play a limited role in accomplishing this.

The Real Challenge

The Trump administration’s fixation on trade deficits as the primary metric of economic relations with China misses the point entirely. The real concern isn’t whether the U.S. imports more goods from China than it exports—it’s whether the U.S. has become dependent on China for technologies and resources essential to its national security and economic future.

China’s rise isn’t problematic merely because it challenges U.S. economic dominance. It is concerning because the Chinese economic model—state capitalism with authoritarian characteristics—creates fundamentally unequal competitive conditions. When Chinese companies receive massive government subsidies, benefit from forced technology transfers and operate without meaningful environmental or labor standards, the result isn’t fair competition but market distortion.

These distortions, combined with other trends like automation and outsourcing, have hollowed out U.S. manufacturing in critical sectors. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a stark illustration of this, as supply chains snarled and a host of critical supplies, particularly protective medical equipment, were simply not available in sufficient quantities at a time where they were needed most. Similar vulnerabilities exist across technologies that will define the economic landscape of the 21st century. Maintaining dependence on a known rival for critical supplies is simply foolish, and Trump is right to seek to end this.

Targeted Decoupling

However, not all economic entanglement with China threatens U.S. interests. The U.S. need not manufacture every consumer good within its borders. China can continue producing toasters, toys and textiles without compromising U.S. security.

Instead, decoupling should focus on industries critical to national security and future economic competitiveness: advanced semiconductors, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, telecommunications infrastructure, space technologies and critical mineral supply chains. In these sectors, dependence on China creates genuine vulnerabilities requiring immediate attention.

Consider semiconductors, which power everything from smartphones to advanced weapons systems. Currently, the U.S. depends heavily on Taiwan for advanced chip manufacturing. Though Taiwan is a U.S. partner, that still puts the U.S. economy in a precarious position, given China’s territorial ambitions regarding the island. Meanwhile, China is investing hundreds of billions of dollars to develop its own semiconductor industry, aiming to dominate this critical technology.

The CHIPS Act, which was passed in 2022 by former President Joe Biden to incentivize investment in domestic manufacturing of semiconductors, represents a positive step in addressing this vulnerability. However, a broader approach is needed across multiple strategic sectors. This should include graduated tariffs that increase predictably over time, direct investment in domestic capacity and coordinated export controls with allies—all established through legislation rather than executive order to provide the policy stability businesses need for long-term planning.

The Workforce Challenge

Even with financial incentives in place, rebuilding industrial capacity faces a significant constraint: The U.S. lacks the skilled workforce needed for advanced manufacturing. Decades of offshoring, combined with the elevation of four-year college degrees over technical education, has hollowed out the pipeline of qualified workers for modern factories.

Meanwhile, China has positioned itself as a global leader in robotics and automation. Its “dark factories”—manufacturing facilities that operate with such minimal human involvement that they barely need lighting—represent the future of production. China’s investment in this technology creates a double challenge for the United States. Not only must it rebuild manufacturing capacity, but it must do so in a way that leverages automation while creating high-skilled jobs.

This workforce gap cannot be addressed overnight. It was created over decades during which high schools abandoned shop classes, community colleges cut manufacturing programs and generations of students were told that success required a bachelor’s degree. Reversing these trends requires reimagining U.S. education and workforce development.

Alienating Allies

Finally, the Trump administration’s current approach is alienating the very partners needed to make economic pressure on China effective. By implementing tariffs against allies like the European Union, Japan and South Korea, the U.S. undermines the solidarity needed for a coherent China strategy.

This approach is particularly counterproductive given China’s efforts to now position itself as a more reliable economic partner than the United States. When the U.S. appears erratic and punitive in its trade policies, it drives allies toward deeper economic integration with China, undermining the very decoupling strategy we seek to implement.

Effective decoupling requires immediately lifting tariffs on allied nations and developing joint approaches to Chinese economic practices. These could include coordinated investment screening mechanisms, joint technical standards for emerging technologies, shared research initiatives, complementary manufacturing capabilities and multilateral financing alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The Path Forward

A strategic approach to decoupling would begin by identifying critical technologies where dependence on China creates genuine security vulnerabilities. It would implement graduated tariffs that increase predictably over five to 10 years, giving businesses time to adapt while signaling a clear policy direction. Simultaneously, the U.S. would develop comprehensive workforce initiatives to address the skills gap in advanced manufacturing and coordinate closely with allies on a unified approach.

This approach acknowledges that economic security is a marathon, not a sprint. It recognizes that immediate, across-the-board decoupling causes economic disruption without addressing underlying vulnerabilities. And it understands that genuine economic resilience requires patient investment rather than punitive measures.

The U.S. relationship with China represents perhaps the most consequential economic challenge of our time. Addressing it effectively demands more than blunt instruments and rhetorical flourishes. It requires a sophisticated strategy that protects U.S. interests while maintaining the benefits of global economic integration. The Trump administration’s current approach fails this test, but a better path remains available if policymakers have the wisdom to take it.