Israel is determined to launch a ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost town, a plan that has raised global alarm because of the potential for harm to more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering there.

Even as the U.S., Egypt and Qatar pushed for a cease-fire deal they hope would avert an assault on Rafah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated on Tuesday that the military would move on the town “with or without a deal” to achieve its goal of destroying the Hamas militant group.

“We will enter Rafah because we have no other choice. We will destroy the Hamas battalions there, we will complete all the objectives of the war, including the return of all our hostages,” he said.

Israel has approved military plans for its offensive and has moved troops and tanks to southern Israel in apparent preparation — though it's still unknown when or if it will happen.

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About 1.4 million Palestinians — more than half of Gaza’s population — are jammed into the town and its surroundings. Most of them fled their homes elsewhere in the territory to escape Israel’s onslaught and now face another wrenching move, or the danger of facing the brunt of a new assault. They live in densely packed tent camps, overflowing U.N. shelters or crowded apartments, and are dependent on international aid for food, with sanitation systems and medical facilities infrastructure crippled.

WHY RAFAH IS SO CRITICAL

Since Israel declared war in response to Hamas’ deadly cross-border attack on Oct. 7, Netanyahu has said a central goal is to destroy its military capabilities.

Israel says Rafah is Hamas’ last major stronghold in the Gaza Strip, after operations elsewhere dismantled 18 out of the militant group’s 24 battalions, according to the military. But even in northern Gaza, the first target of the offensive, Hamas has regrouped in some areas and continued to launch attacks.

Israel says Hamas has four battalions in Rafah and that it must send in ground forces to topple them. Some senior militants could also be hiding in the city.

WHY THERE IS SO MUCH OPPOSITION TO ISRAEL’S PLAN

The U.S. has urged Israel not to carry out the operation without a “credible” plan to evacuate civilians. Egypt, a strategic partner of Israel, has said that an Israeli military seizure of the Gaza-Egypt border — which is supposed to be demilitarized — or any move to push Palestinians into Egypt would threaten its four-decade-old peace agreement with Israel.

Israel’s previous ground assaults, backed by devastating bombardment since October, leveled huge parts of northern Gaza and the southern city of Khan Younis and caused widespread civilian deaths, even after evacuation orders were given for those areas.

Israel’s military says it plans to direct the civilians in Rafah to “humanitarian islands” in central Gaza before the planned offensive. It says it has ordered thousands of tents to shelter people. But it hasn't given details on its plan. It's unclear if it's logistically possible to move such a large population all at once without widespread suffering among a population already exhausted by multiple moves and months of bombardment.

Moreover, U.N. officials say an attack on Rafah will collapse the aid operation that is keeping the population across the Gaza Strip alive,. and potentially push Palestinians into greater starvation and mass death.

Some entry points have been opened in the north, and the U.S. has promised that a port to bring in supplies by sea will be ready in weeks. But the majority of food, medicine and other material enters Gaza from Egypt through Rafah or the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing — traffic that is likely to be impossible during an invasion.

The U.S. has said that Israel should use pinpoint operations against Hamas inside Rafah without a major ground assault.

After Netanyahu’s latest comments, U.S. National Security spokesperson John Kirby said, “We don’t want to see a major ground operation in Rafah. Certainly, we don’t want to see operations that haven’t factored in the safety, security of” those taking refuge in the town.

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POLITICAL CALCULATIONS

The question of attacking Rafah has heavy political repercussions for Netanyahu. His government could be threatened with collapse if he doesn’t go through with it. Some of his ultranationalist and conservative religious governing partners could pull out of the coalition, if he signs onto a cease-fire deal that prevents an assault.

Critics of Netanyahu say that he’s more concerned with keeping his government intact and staying in power than national interest, an accusation he denies.

One of his coalition members, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Tuesday that accepting a cease-fire deal and not carrying out a Rafah operation would amount to Israel “raising a white flag” and giving victory to Hamas.

On the other hand, Netanyahu risks increasing Israel’s international isolation — and alienating its top ally, the United States — if it does attack Rafah. His vocal refusals to be swayed by world pressure and his promises to launch the operation could be aimed at placating his political allies even as he considers a deal.

Or he could bet that international anger will remain largely rhetorical if he goes ahead with the attack. The Biden administration has used progressively tougher language to express concerns over Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, but it has also continued to provide weapons to Israel’s military and diplomatic support.

New diplomatic push in Israel-Hamas war as deadly strikes hit Rafah

A Palestinian embraces the body of a child, where nine members of the Abu Radwan family were killed following an Israeli air strike.

At least 27 Palestinians were killed in fresh Israeli attacks on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, the territory's Hamas-controlled Health Ministry said on Monday, as diplomatic efforts intensified with talks in Cairo and Riyadh.

Authorities said 20 people in residential buildings in the border city were killed in various attacks during the night.

Seven members of a family in Rafah were also reportedly killed in a separate attack on Monday morning, they said.

An Israeli army spokesman said he could not comment without the exact coordinates of the incidents.

Israel has vowed for months to launch an offensive in Rafah, on the border with Egypt, to eliminate the remaining strongholds of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Israel's allies have repeatedly urged caution, as hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinian civilians are sheltering in the city.

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The planned military operation could yet be delayed, as there was some movement on Monday in the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, in which Egypt, Qatar and the United States are acting as mediators.

A three-member Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Monday to hold negotiations on the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners.

Israeli news website ynet reported that the proposal envisages the release of 33 hostages in return for the freeing of several hundred Palestinian prisoners. These are to include women, including female soldiers, elderly people, the injured and the "mentally impaired."

Citing a senior Israeli government representative, ynet reported that the duration of a simultaneous ceasefire would depend on the number of hostages released. Hamas is demanding the release of 50 prisoners for every soldier and 30 prisoners for every civilian, according to the news outlet.

The last ceasefire was in November, when more than 100 hostages were freed.

Meanwhile, Several Western and Arab foreign ministers were due to meet on the fringes of a World Economic Forum (WEF) conference in Riyadh, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock among them.

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Palestinian civilians living in Gaza were suffering "collective punishment" from Israel's retaliatory military campaign for October 7 attacks led by Hamas which triggered the war in Gaza.

"What has taken place, all Palestinians in Gaza have to pay for it," Madbouly said. "It was collective punishment - not punishment for Hamas, but for all Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip."

Israel's response to the massacre that left some 1,200 people dead and hundreds more taken hostage "was unbelievable," he said at the economic conference in Riyadh. More than 80% of the health facilities in Gaza had been destroyed, he said, while an "estimated 7,000 [people] remain under the rubble."

The Egyptian prime minister said it would take "decades" for Gaza to recover.

Blinken pointed the finger squarely at Hamas and said it had to act: "We strongly support Israel and its effort to ensure that what happened on October 7 never happens again, but at the same time we are determined to do everything we can to bring an end to the terrible human suffering that we are seeing every single day in Gaza among children, women, men who've been caught in a terrible crossfire of Hamas' making.

"Right now, Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel and in this moment the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas ... They have to decide and to decide quickly," Blinken said.

The White House urged Hamas to accept the ceasefire and hostage exchange deal.

"In recent days, there has been new progress in talks and currently, the onus is indeed on Hamas," White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said on Monday. "There is a deal on the table and they need to take it," she added.

"We believe that all efforts need to be brought to bear to convince Hamas to accept the proposal immediately."

"It is way past time to get these hostages home" Jean-Pierre added.

"It was way past time to get to a ceasefire, and we need to make sure we continue to get that humanitarian aid, as we know it is a dire situation in Gaza."

US President Joe Biden urged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on the phone to make every effort to secure the release of the hostages held by Hamas, the White House said on Monday evening.

If an agreement accepted by Israel were to be reached, the US would endeavour to ensure that it was adhered to, the statement continued.

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In his talks with al-Sissi, Biden also emphasised that Palestinians should not be expelled to Egypt or any other place outside the Gaza Strip.

As of Monday, the Gaza health authority put the number of people killed in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war at 34,488. More than two thirds of those killed are women and children. The figures are regarded as largely credible by the UN and human rights organizations.