Just a few months short of a quarter-century as Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin on Tuesday will put his hand on a copy of the constitution and begin another six-year term as president wielding extraordinary power.

Since becoming acting president on the last day of 1999, Putin has shaped Russia into a monolith — crushing political opposition, running independent-minded journalists out of the country and promoting an increasing devotion to prudish “traditional values” that pushes many in society into the margins.

His influence is so dominant that other officials could only stand submissively on the sidelines as he launched a war in Ukraine despite expectations the invasion would bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, as well as cost Russia dearly in the blood of its soldiers.

With that level of power, what Putin will do with his next term is a daunting question at home and abroad.

The war in Ukraine, where Russia is making incremental though consistent battlefield gains, is the top concern, and he is showing no indication of changing course.

“The war in Ukraine is central to his current political project, and I don't see anything to suggest that that will change. And that affects everything else,” Brian Taylor, a Syracuse University professor and author of “The Code of Putinism,” said in an interview with The Associated Press.

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“It affects who's in what positions, it affects what resources are available and it affects the economy, affects the level of repression internally,” he said.

In his state of the nation address in February, Putin vowed to fulfill Moscow’s goals in Ukraine, and do whatever it takes to “defend our sovereignty and security of our citizens.” He claimed the Russian military has “gained a huge combat experience” and is “firmly holding the initiative and waging offensives in a number of sectors.”

That will come at huge expense, which could drain money available for the extensive domestic projects and reforms in education, welfare and poverty-fighting that Putin used much of the two-hour address to detail.

Taylor suggested such projects were included in the address as much for show as for indicating real intent to put them into action.

Putin “thinks of himself in the grand historical terms of Russian lands, bringing Ukraine back to where it belongs, those sorts of ideas. And I think those trump any kind of more socioeconomic-type programs,” Taylor said.

If the war were to end in less than total defeat for either side, with Russia retaining some of the territory it has already captured, European countries fear that Putin could be encouraged toward further military adventurism in the Baltics or in Poland.

“It's possible that Putin does have vast ambitions and will try to follow a costly success in Ukraine with a new attack somewhere else,” Harvard international relations professor Stephen Walt wrote in the journal Foreign Policy. “But it is also entirely possible that his ambitions do not extend beyond what Russia has won — at enormous cost and that he has no need or desire to gamble for more.”

But, Walt added, “Russia will be in no shape to launch new wars of aggression when the war in Ukraine is finally over.”

Such a rational concern might not prevail, others say. Maksim Samorukov, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that “driven by Putin's whims and delusions, Moscow is likely to commit self-defeating blunders.”

In a commentary in Foreign Affairs, Samorukov suggested that Putin's age could affect his judgment.

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“At 71 ... his awareness of his own mortality surely impinges on his decision-making. A growing sense of his limited time undoubtedly contributed to his fateful decision to invade Ukraine.”

Overall, Putin may be heading into his new term with a weaker grip on power than he appears to have.

Russia's “vulnerabilities are hidden in plain sight. Now more than ever, the Kremlin makes decisions in a personalized and arbitrary way that lacks even basic controls,” Samorukov wrote.

“The Russian political elite have grown more pliant in implementing Putin's orders and more obsequious to his paranoid worldview,” he wrote. The regime “is at permanent risk of crumbling overnight, as its Soviet predecessor did three decades ago."

Putin is sure to continue his continue animosity toward the West, which he said in his state of the nation address “would like to do to Russia the same thing they did in many other regions of the world, including Ukraine: to bring discord into our home, to weaken it from within.”

Putin's resistance to the West manifests not only anger at its support for Ukraine, but in what he sees as the undermining of Russia's moral fiber.

Russia last year banned the notional LGBTQ+ “movement” by declaring it to be extremist in what officials said was a fight for traditional values like those espoused by the Russian Orthodox Church in the face of Western influence. Courts also banned gender transitioning.

“I would expect the role of the Russian Orthodox Church to continue to be quite visible," Taylor said. He also noted the burst of social media outrage that followed a party hosted by TV presenter Anastasia Ivleeva where guests were invited to show up “almost naked.”

“Other actors in the system understand that that stuff resonates with Putin. ... There were people interested in exploiting things like that,” he said.

Although the opposition and independent media have almost vanished under Putin's repressive measures, there's still potential for further moves to control Russia's information space, including moving forward with its efforts to establish a “sovereign internet.”

The inauguration comes two days before Victory Day, Russia's most important secular holiday, commemorating the Soviet Red Army's capture of Berlin in World War II and the immense hardships of the war, in which the USSR lost some 20 million people.

The defeat of Nazi Germany is integral to modern Russia's identity and to Putin's justification of the war in Ukraine as a comparable struggle.

G-7 Eyes Plan on US-Led $50 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine

 The US is in talks with close partners to lead a group of allies that would give as much as $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the massive outlay being repaid with the windfall profits from sovereign Russian assets that have been frozen – and are accruing interest — mostly in Europe.

The plan is being discussed among the Group of Seven nations, with the US pushing to have an agreement when G-7 leaders meet in Italy in June, according to people familiar with the proposal. Discussions on this topic have been difficult and an agreement could still take months, they said.

The plan signals a strong show of support from Washington after Congress approved $61 billion in assistance for Kyiv in April that had been held up for months due to partisan wrangling. The move will also put renewed pressure on the European Union to drop its objections to utilizing the immobilized Russian assets.

Spokespeople for the US Treasury Department and White House National Security Council declined to comment.

When asked about this type of proposal in which the US, or a subset of G-7 countries, put up the aid money, which the EU would repay using the frozen assets, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “it’s something we’re discussing.”

“Ideally, this is something we would like the entire G-7 to participate in, be part of, not just have the United States doing it alone,” she told Bloomberg in an interview in Sedona, Arizona, Friday.

The delay in financial and military aid has prompted increasingly urgent warnings from officials in Kyiv of the risk of a Russian breakthrough in the war as Ukrainian forces struggled with dwindling supplies of munitions.

The latest development follows months of discussion among allies over how to take on board European fears about EU exposure to risks of using the frozen Russian assets, while also putting aid for Ukraine on a more sustainable footing.

Most European nations have pushed back against outright confiscation of the assets and have been skeptical of proposals they fear would undermine the euro’s stability or expose them to Russian retaliation. The US push essentially boils down to finding a way to provide Ukraine with the largest possible support quickly rather than in smaller amounts, by better mobilizing the profits produced by the frozen assets, said the people.

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With President Joe Biden facing a challenge from his Republican predecessor Donald Trump in November’s election, a key element of the US push is also to shield allied assistance to Ukraine from political shifts on both sides of the Atlantic. Trump has expressed skepticism about aid to Ukraine and political divisions in the US may make it hard to approve further support for Kyiv.

The G-7 countries have immobilized about $280 billion of Russian central bank assets in response to President Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with the majority held in Europe through the Belgium-based clearing house Euroclear.

Windfall Profits

Some €159 billion of frozen Russian assets have generated net profit of €557 million ($601 million) from Feb. 15, according to Euroclear’s first quarter financial results. Since last year, the assets have generated about €3.9 billion in net profit.

Russian sovereign assets held by the company could grow to as much as €190 billion by 2028 as they mature into cash, one of the people said.

The assets are expected to generate about €5 billion in windfall profits annually and a central element of the US proposal is to bring forward those proceeds to increase the amount of support Ukraine receives in the near term.

The size of the aid that would be immediately provided to Kyiv would depend on the length of their repayment terms and how long the assets were immobilized to fund the bonds, according to the people.

Another option, previously reported by Bloomberg, would see allies issue some $50 billion worth of bonds through a special purpose vehicle backed by the windfall profits. The updated plans would look to raise similar amounts.

Russian Advance

The debate is taking place with Russia’s military seeking to advance along the front line against outgunned Ukrainian forces. Kyiv’s US and European allies have struggled to supply it with munitions, and Ukrainian efforts to boost troop numbers have been slow.

One unresolved issue is who would provide guarantees that the funds would be repaid if the Russian assets become unfrozen. That risk is regarded as low, given that G-7 nations have pledged to continue blocking the funds until Russia agrees to pay toward Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, one of the people said.

The latest US proposal seeks to address earlier worries among some allies that using the assets themselves could amount effectively to seizing them. It also avoids placing a disproportionate burden on the EU.

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Still, reaching agreement remains fraught with difficulties, said the people.

The deal, if agreed, would replace one drawn up by the EU to transfer windfall profits from Euroclear generated by the frozen assets from Feb. 15 to support Ukraine twice a year. Agreement on that EU-only plan is expected as early as this month, some of the people said.

Under the EU’s plan, Euroclear would hold on to profits made before that date and retain some of the later proceeds to cover costs and risks such as potential retaliatory asset seizures in Russia. The proceeds are also subject to tax, a detail that has annoyed several EU states.