If you wrote a novel in which the first Latin American pope died on Easter Monday — which happened to fall on April 21, the traditional anniversary of the founding of the city of Rome — it would be rejected by any decent editor. But that is precisely what has happened. Pope Francis, a symbol for many of the possibility of a more compassionate Christianity, has died. The apostolic throne of St. Peter is now empty.

The period between the death of one pope and the election of his successor by the College of Cardinals is known rather ominously as a “sede vacante” (the vacant seat). It ordinarily lasts about 15 to 20 days, nine of which are the official mourning period known as the novendiale. Shortly after the nine-day period, after funeral rites for the recently deceased pope have been concluded, the Catholic Church’s leading cardinals will meet privately to elect a new pope in a conclave.

The word conclave, from the Latin “with key,” comes from the 13th century when, following the death of Pope Clement IV, the cardinals were unable to agree on a new pope for almost three years. As frustration grew, it was decided to lock the cardinals away, providing them with only bread and water until they came to a decision. This practice of secluding the cardinals while they name their choice is now a matter of canon law. Even though the conclave has not begun, in our anxious times many are already starting to consider who might be the next Bishop of Rome.

Factors at play

The election of a new pope has always been as much political balancing act as spiritual exercise. Most of the current conversation has focused on the “progressive” versus “traditionalist” strands of the global culture wars. Broadly speaking, this refers to the growing divide in the Catholic Church between the so-called progressives who favor reforms to the church’s attitude toward cultural and social issues (particularly those related to gender and sexuality) and the “traditionalists” who oppose such reforms, often advocating for creating even stricter norms in light of liberalization in the wider society. (Francis was considered more progressive, whereas his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI was a traditionalist.) This divide is not unique to the Catholic Church and can now be seen in nearly every religious tradition. But while this conflict will likely dominate the conclave and coverage of it, there are also other factors at play.

In trying to forecast the next papacy, it is also crucial to focus on the question of national — or more accurately, regional — origin.  This has always been a factor in choosing a pope, the vast majority of whom have been Italians. The election of Polish Pope John Paul II in 1978, the first non-Italian in over 500 years, was considered an important show of support to the Catholics still living behind the Iron Curtain. So where might the next pope come from — and who might he be, and what might that signal about the future of the church?

The future of Catholicism

The fact is that what the average Christian looks like and where the average Christian lives is changing faster now than ever before, which will inevitably shape the next papacy. Christianity is on the decline in North America and Western Europe, even if that decline seems to have slowed in the United States, at least recently. But in Latin America, Asia, and Africa (a region some call the “Global South,” though the term hits a colonialist note), Christianity is growing, both because of higher birth rates and conversions. Some estimates suggest that by 2050, 78 percent of the world’s Christians will live in the Global South. African Christianity, in particular, has experienced tremendous growth, with data suggesting that by 2050, 40 percent of the world’s Christians will live in Africa. For Catholicism in particular, these numbers are even more stark, and the Vatican’s own reports suggest that the future of the Catholic Church is undeniably in Africa.

While the demographic center of the Christian world has been shifting, the power centers have stayed firmly in the West. No African or Asian leader has been elected head of a major global Christian denomination since Late Antiquity. (The last pope born in Africa was Pope Gelasius I, who died in 496.) And though Pope Francis was indeed the first pope from Latin America, as the son of Italian immigrants to Argentina, he came firmly within the cultural framework and historical trajectory of southern European Catholicism. It is difficult to see him entirely as a “Pope from the Global South.”

One might assume that progressives within the Catholic Church would be championing the rise of leaders from outside Europe. Yet an uncomfortable truth for many of these progressives is that the Global South, and particularly Africa, has become a significant power center for traditionalists in the fierce cultural debates that have rocked Christianity over the past four decades. This has been true not just for Catholics, but Anglicans, Methodists, and others. Of course, it is important to note that millions of dollars have been spent pushing a conservative social agenda in Africa and that African Christians are far from a monolith. But in broad demographic terms, a betting progressive Catholic would likely prefer a European pope over an African one.

Possible contenders

There are only a few realistic African contenders at the moment, both deeply traditionalist. There is Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76. Brought to the Vatican by Pope Francis’s conservative predecessor, Turkson is best known outside of Vatican circles for his anti-gay attitudes, including endorsing Ghana’s draconian anti-homosexuality law. He is joined by Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, from Guinea, who once positioned himself as a “parallel authority” to Pope Francis. He has defended clerical celibacy, denounced “gender ideology,” and argued that there can be “no theological dialogue” with Islam. These men are among the most conservative potential candidates to be the next pope.

Meanwhile, the majority of the progressive candidates, including the most progressive, are nearly all from Europe. There is Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça from Portugal. His relatively liberal views on same-sex relationships as well as his sympathies with a pro-choice Benedictine nun who favors women’s ordination put him firmly in the progressive camp. However, at 59, he is the youngest among the candidates and thus unlikely to get the job on those grounds. More likely would be the Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (and what is more conventional than an Italian pope?). Largely in the theological and pastoral image of Pope Francis, Zuppi would in some ways be the most “Eurocentric” choice, having spent time as the Vatican’s peace envoy to Ukraine and Russia and seen as largely focused on the European church.

Given the demographic realities facing the Catholic Church, a progressive European cardinal seems highly unlikely, even though a progressive, at least on issues of gender and sexuality, is likely needed to stem the bleeding in Europe in particular. Even a traditionalist European cardinal, of which there are many, might be seen as out of step with where Catholicism is headed. All this puts the coming conclave in a seemingly impossible situation.

The man who might offer a way around this impasse comes from the traditionally Catholic, Asian country of the Philippines, a progressive candidate from outside Europe (and this time with no European immigrant parents): Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle. Cardinal Tagle has been dubbed the “Asian Francis” in some circles because of his commitment to social justice. Yet, he is still not a European and would be the first Asian pope, and the first non-white pope since the early Middle Ages. (It is possible, even likely, that the three African-born popes of Late Antiquity were Black.)

His election would pacify Western progressives, who have proven all too ready to jump ship should the church maintain too conservative of a position on key social issues, while offering the Global South — and the new Christian majority — a leader who looks and has lived more like his flock. It seems a clear way forward for a church increasingly divided not just along ideological lines, but geographic ones as well. And, for what it’s worth, Tagle currently leads the Vegas betting odds — as good an indication as any about who will step out onto the balcony in St. Peter’s Square after the white smoke rises.

Whoever appears before the crowd that day will be a compromise, a man who in his life and theology must satisfy, to some degree, the varying factions of a changing Catholic Church that is increasingly divided by geography and politics — a reflection of the wider world. He will have just been handed the world’s loudest pulpit and what he does with it will affect not only the faithful, but the world.

The College of Cardinals, Explained

With the death of Pope Francis on Monday, the process to choose a new pope will begin after a period of mourning and Francis’ funeral Mass at the Vatican. The group that will select a new pope is the College of Cardinals.

What is a cardinal of the Catholic Church?

A cardinal is appointed by the pope. They are all considered advisers to the pope and must be bishops. Many of them are archbishops of large urban archdioceses around the world. Some of them are members of the Roman Curia who lead and administer major departments (called dicasteries) of the Catholic Church. A select few cardinals may be prominent clerics the pope wishes to honor. The majority of cardinals vote in papal conclaves to elect the new pope, but there are also numerous non-voting cardinals. Once a cardinal reaches 80 years of age, he may no longer vote in a papal conclave. At last count there were 252 cardinals, of whom 141 were eligible to vote in a papal conclave (though there is no definitive public list of cardinal electors).

What is the origin of the College of Cardinals?

The College of Cardinals traces its origins to the early centuries of the Catholic Church in Rome, evolving into its current form under Pope Nicholas II in 1059. Initially serving as key advisers to the pope, the cardinals’ role expanded significantly as the papacy sought to consolidate its authority and regulate administration of the Catholic Church. Cardinals became the primary electors of the pope, ensuring continuity and ecclesiastical autonomy from secular rulers who often sought to influence and control the great authority of the church for their own ends. The red color of cardinals’ vestments symbolizes their willingness to defend the faith even to the point of shedding their blood as martyrs.

The collective influence of the cardinals shapes Catholic doctrine, global church policy, and diplomacy—which often positions them as intermediaries between the Vatican, national governments, and other large national and international institutions. In modern times, popes have sought to internationalize the College of Cardinals, appointing more cardinals from regions in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. There are currently 17 cardinals from the United States. While their spiritual authority is considerable, their authority and influence within the church fluctuates depending on the reigning pontiff and the particular responsibilities of each cardinal. Ultimately, the role of a cardinal embodies both the sacred and administrative dimensions of church governance. The role reflects a delicate balance between faith, tradition, contemporary issues, politics, finance, and the practical issues of administering a global church of 1.3 billion Catholics.

What is a papal conclave?

The papal conclave is the solemn and secretive process of electing a pope. It unfolds within the Sistine Chapel in Rome under strict protocols designed to ensure confidentiality and spiritual discernment. Following the death or resignation of a pope, the College of Cardinals convenes in Rome, spending days in pre-conclave meetings known as general congregations, in which they discuss the state of the church and potential candidates. Once inside the Sistine Chapel to vote, the doors are locked, and security sweeps try to ensure there is no external communication with the outside world. Cardinals cast their votes in multiple rounds per day, writing their chosen name on a ballot—which is then counted, verified, recorded, and burned. To be elected, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority—a safeguard against factionalism, hasty decisions, and to ensure the new pope has a super-majority of the support of the cardinals. One of the most well-known elements of a papal conclave is the smoke that emerges from the chapel chimney after a vote. The smoke color signals the outcome: black for an inconclusive vote, white for the successful election of a pope.

The new pope is nearly always someone from the College of Cardinals itself, but that is not a requirement. Canonically, he must be a baptized male Catholic who has the capacity to accept his election as pope. Once elected, the new pope is asked if he accepts the position. When he accepts, he is then asked by what name he wishes to be called—putting behind him his old name and identity. The newly elected and named pontiff then steps out onto the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica to deliver his first blessing, Urbi et Orbi—to the city and the world.

When was the last papal conclave?

The 2013 conclave following Pope Benedict XVI’s historic resignation was one of the shortest in modern history, lasting only two days and five ballots. It convened 115 cardinals from across the globe, reflecting the increasingly international character of the church’s leadership. Consensus quickly coalesced around Jorge Mario Bergoglio, an Argentine cardinal known for his personal humility and pastoral approach. His election was marked by a desire for reform, particularly in response to scandals involving financial mismanagement and clerical sexual abuse. Upon accepting the role, Bergoglio took the name Francis, signaling his commitment to simplicity in the spirit of St. Francis of Assisi. His election was groundbreaking: He was the first Jesuit ever elected pope, and the first non-European pontiff of the Catholic Church in more than 1,200 years.

Those who think a papal conclave is primarily about politics (or is predictable) should remember that a College of Cardinals made up entirely of men elevated there over the span of 35 years by Pope John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI (considered by most to both be traditionalists) was the same College of Cardinals that elected Pope Francis, a pope beloved by progressive Catholics and non-Catholics alike.

What will the next papal conclave be like?

The next papal conclave will be shaped by the pressing challenges facing the church and by some of the ideological divisions within the College of Cardinals. Key issues may include the ongoing pressures of modern views of human sexuality, the future of deeply troubled Vatican financial reforms, the oppression of Christians in various countries of the world, the decline of the Catholic Church in Europe and the Americas, and the tremendous growth of the Catholic Church in Africa and Asia. The cardinals will face decisions between continuity and change, determining whether to elect a pope who will advance Francis’ agenda, one who will implement a more traditional interpretation of church doctrine and practice, or one who might take the Catholic Church in a new, unforeseen direction.

Front-runners (also called papabile) may include: Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s powerful secretary of state; Cardinal Robert Sarah, considered a traditionalist from Africa; Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, a strong supporter of Pope Francis; and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy. The age of papal candidates is often of great interest. Pope John Paul II was 58 years old when elected and served for 26 years. Pope Benedict XVI was already 78 and unexpectedly retired as pope just eight years later. But past prognostications and predictions going into papal elections have rarely reflected the issues in the conclave that actually produced the new pope (266 popes in all). There is a saying in the Vatican about papabile: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”