Handout footage shows smoke rising from what Ukrainian military intelligence said is the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergey Kotov.

The Russians are giving the world a maritime headache. In the High North, their uneasy teamwork with China continues. Moscow and Beijing have recently announced a “joint commission for the development of the Northern Sea Route”. Plenty of analysts, those of RUSI included, believe that this benefits Xi more than Putin, but either way, Russia’s desire to use the High North for grey-zone activities is only going to increase.

The so-called “dark fleet” of tankers smuggling Russian oil is now at 1,400 strong, and continues to flaunt international maritime conventions in addition to using unsafe and often uninsured ships. New and unproved registries and insurance companies are popping up in Africa and India to cover this whilst those who are trying to ship the oil legally (below the agreed price cap) find themselves bogged down by inconsistently applied bureaucracy from across G7, US, EU and UK authorities. Constrained as we are by the rule book, taking action against these ships at sea is nearly impossible so instead we rely on slow-moving levers of diplomacy whilst bracing for the inevitable environmental disaster.

In the North Atlantic, Russia maintains a steady stream of submarine deployments in and around our Critical Undersea Infrastructure, requiring an equally steady stream of combined Royal Navy, RAF and international assets in response.

People who track these things will tell you that there are a number of Russians on the ground in Western Yemen. Classifications mean you never know exactly what they are doing but that doesn’t really matter, “helping the Houthis interdict shipping in the chokepoint” will suffice.

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One area where they are not causing a headache is the South China Sea, probably because they figure China has that covered. However, they are increasingly copying the Chinese “fisher militia” model and fitting out dozens of fishing boats with everything but fishing gear in order to sail the seven seas and provide a low-level intelligence network.

In the Weddell Sea to the East of the Antarctic Peninsula, Russia recently announced the discovery of oil fields ten times the size of the North Sea’s entire output over the last 50 years. Written up here, this sparked a debate as to the vast difference between knowing it’s there and extracting it, particularly in the harsh conditions of the deep south. This misses a large part of the reason the Russians are declaring their findings: making a noise and challenging thinning NATO and Western resources for a response. The oil would be of use as well, of course, but that is for another time.

However, in amongst all this Russian grey zone activity, there is reason to be optimistic: their poor performance in the maritime environment when operations become conventional. In the Black Sea, Russia has now seen 25 per cent of its vessels sunk or damaged.

Analysis of the flagship Moskva sinking showed an almost total absence of basic air defence measures, much less the enhanced ones of a navy at war. She was sunk by surface-to-surface missiles, but Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs) such as the Magura V5 have been equally effective since, costing Moscow more than $500 million in lost platforms.

Attacks alongside by cruise missiles and drones have had similar success, taking out ships, a submarine, headquarters and docking facilities. Forced to abandon the base in Sevastopol and seek refuge further east in Novorossiysk, they are rapidly finding that nowhere is safe; this haven has just been struck by multiple drone attacks. What this has done to the part of the fleet that was hiding there isn’t clear yet, but the emerging videos show, once again, an absence of air or surface defence during the attacks.

There are three bits of good news for the West here. First, Russia’s Black Sea fleet is now almost totally ineffective. While they still have Kalibr missiles they mustn’t be written off totally, but for now their fighting morale must be rock bottom. That they are not innovating or learning in the face of these quite basic attacks is a clear sign of this. Second, following on from this, Russian attempts to block ships from leaving the Black Sea continue to fail. This is good news for both Ukrainian exports and the countries at the other end who are dependent on them.

Lastly, the inability of Russia to control its own near waters shows that, with the exception of their nuclear submarine operations, Moscow’s increasing grey zone activities around the world, whilst annoying and resource-draining, lack the conventional naval backing to make them anything more than this.

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