Israel has intelligence to show that Iran was planning to weaponise its enriched uranium and that it posed an “immediate existential threat”, the country said.

On Saturday, a senior Israeli Defence Forces official said ongoing operations against Iran would continue until that threat was removed.

Israel claims Iran has enough enriched uranium to build 15 nuclear bombs. While not independently verified, this would surpass previous estimates. On Thursday, the UN’s nuclear watchdog estimated that Iran had enriched enough uranium for nine bombs.

The IDF official also told a briefing for journalists that overnight strikes on Iranian air defence systems meant that the “aerial road to Tehran was now effectively open”.

They said the threat that Israel faces from Iran consists of three elements: Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles and its sponsorship of cross-border terrorism through proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

“This is not necessarily over. We are prepared for more rounds,” the official added.

“Our goal in these operations is to remove an existential threat; to remove a ticking time bomb.”

Israel has been warning since 2009 that Iran was “months away” from developing a nuclear bomb, but the claim that it had gone beyond enrichment towards developing a weapon is new, as is the number of 50 bombs.

The IDF official said its intelligence had been shared with other intelligence agencies and showed that “concrete progress” had been made in the Iranian regime’s efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb, including a uranium metal core and initiator for triggering an explosion.

This stands in contrast to recent assessments made by the US and its security agencies.

Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, told Congress in March that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was “at its highest levels” and “unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons”.

But she added that US intelligence “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003”.

Credit: X

Three people were killed in Israel in barrages of Iranian ballistic missile fire on Friday night and early on Saturday morning.

In addition, some 70 people were wounded by the estimated 200 ballistic missiles fired from Iran in four waves.

Most of the missiles were intercepted by air defences. But a “small number” made it through air defences, the IDF said.

It was clear from live television images that at least one target of the Iranian strikes was the Kirya, a densely built-up area in central Tel Aviv that houses a number of military offices including the IDF’s headquarters.

The IDF warned that further ballistic missile attacks on Israel were expected but it claimed that Iran’s ability to launch missiles at Israel would slowly degrade.

The Israeli military released footage showing the identification of Iranian ballistic missile launchers in Tehran, shortly before they were targeted.

Israel believes that Iran has an arsenal of about 2,000 ballistic missiles it could use against Israel and which – until the current strikes – was growing quickly.

David Lammy, the UK Foreign Secretary, has expressed concern at the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

He wrote on X: “Alarmed by further strikes in the Middle East overnight, with reports of fatalities and injuries in Israel. We must urgently de-escalate and prevent any further harm to civilians.”

He added that he had spoken to Abbas Araghchi, his Iranian counterpart, “to urge calm.”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Israel’s stated aim is the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons – but the real goal is regime change in Tehran

Israel’s campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme and decapitate its military with bombardments across the west of the country is part of a comprehensive plan to remove the existential threat Iran posed to the Jewish state. The “second-order effect” may be no less important – regime change.

Israel has been planning this for years. It has shaped the battlefield with assassinations of nuclear scientists, the destruction of Iranian regional proxy militias, and bombing of its missile facilities last year.

This year, it has slipped Mossad intelligence agency commandos into the country where they’ve shown Ukrainian levels of innovation and used drones to snuff out Iran’s air defences and target missile launch sites.

Two more top leaders of the Iranian forces have been slain in meticulously targeted strikes.

Politicians, though, have not yet appeared on the Israeli kill lists. That is deliberate. Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly tried to appeal to the Iranian people to rise against the Islamic regime that has ruled over them since 1979.

On Friday, as Israel’s first waves of 200 aircraft were conducting their first sorties against Iran, he broadcast an appeal directly to the Iranian people.

“Israel’s fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,” Netanyahu said.

“The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,” he added. “This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard.”

Iran’s regime is oppressive. It hangs poets and journalists, gasses schoolgirls for protesting against being forced to wear head scarves and takes foreigners hostage. It has backed murderous campaigns by Hamas, created the militia-cum-mafia that is modern Hezbollah, and used the Houthis of Yemen to destabilise world trade through the Red Sea.

These are “military” operations, and so, for now, Israel is focusing its efforts on Iran’s military officers and capabilities. The message from Israel, though, to politicians and surviving soldiers, is that the smart money lies in removing the mullahs who have ruled Iran before Israel kills them, or another revolution sweeps every element of the current system away.

“Pandora’s box has been cast wide open with Israel’s sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets — an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East. By targeting senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership and nuclear infrastructure deep inside Iranian territory, Israel has signalled a willingness to confront Tehran at a scale and depth previously unseen,” said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow, Middle East security, at the Royal United Services Institute.

The exiled son of Iran’s last shah, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, blamed the Israeli attacks on Iran’s supreme leader, ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying it was “Khamenei’s war, not Iran’s”.

In a statement shared online, Pahlavi appealed directly to Iran’s military, police, and intelligence personnel, urging them to “separate yourselves from this corrupt and incompetent leadership” and “join the people”. He said that the Islamic Republic’s leadership “values neither your lives nor the future of Iran… The solution is the overthrow of the Islamic Republic through street protests and nationwide strikes,” he said.

Iran has fired 200 ballistic missiles in four waves against Israel in its first round of retaliation. Most have been shot down, but at least three Israelis have been killed by the counterattacks.

This provoked Israel Katz, Israel’s defence minister, to threaten the kind of revenge that would destroy any hope of an uprising against the Islamic regime.

“The Iranian dictator is taking the citizens of Iran hostage, bringing about a reality in which they, and especially Tehran’s residents, will pay a heavy price for the flagrant harm inflicted upon Israel’s citizens. If Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn,” Katz raged.

Israel has said that its campaign, which has already involved attacks on 150 sites, could take a week or even two. The military aim is clear – the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme and the emasculation of its conventional military capabilities.

With every wave of ballistic missiles Iran fires, its inventory falls and Israel’s ability to identify launch sites increases.

Israel says it has killed nine nuclear scientists but avoided other civilian casualties. Iran’s state media has said that 60 civilians, including 20 children, have been killed by Israel so far.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza has shown that a Katz-style blitzkrieg of Iran is not a threat that the Jewish state is afraid of carrying out. So far, Israel has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, at least half of whom have been women and children in Gaza.

The Trump administration has protected Israel from much of the criticism for its operations in Gaza. But when it comes to Iran, there is unanimity in what Western leaders would like to see as an outcome. They all want to see a regime change no matter how much they call for “restraint”.

Prising Iran out of its close relationship with Moscow, which is its biggest civilian nuclear power backer and which supports its operations in Ukraine, would be a huge bonus. Regime change in Iran, an oil-rich nation with an ancient culture, an educated population, that sits at the centre of geopolicy, would be an ideal outcome for the West.

Tehran knows this, which is why it has threatened to attack British and French interests if they get involved in even helping to defend Israel against its rockets.

Paris and London, meanwhile, are sitting back and enjoying the demise of Iran’s nuclear programme while hoping to see the “second-order effect” of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion emerge as a revolution in Iran.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Netanyahu says regime change in Iran could be result of Israel's attacks

Regime change in Iran could be a result of Israel's military attacks on the country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday, saying Israel would do whatever is necessary to remove the "existential threat" posed by Tehran.

Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" with a surprise attack on Friday morning that wiped out the top echelon of Iran's military command and damaged its nuclear sites, and says the campaign will continue to escalate in coming days. Iran has vowed to "open the gates of hell" in retaliation.

Israel's military has said the current goal of the campaign is not a change in regime, but the dismantling of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Asked by Fox's Bret Baier on his "Special Report" program if regime change was part of Israel's military effort, Netanyahu said: "Could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak."

"We're geared to do whatever is necessary to achieve our dual aim, to remove ... two existential threats - the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat," Netanyahu said in one of his first interviews since Israel's attacks began.

"We did act - to save ourselves, but also, I think, to not only protect ourselves, but protect the world from this incendiary regime. We can't have the world's most dangerous regime have the world's most dangerous weapons," he said.

Israel has said its operation could last weeks, and Netanyahu has openly urged the Iranian people to rise up against their Islamic clerical rulers.

Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other overnight into Sunday, killing scores and raising fears of a wider conflict, as U.S. President Donald Trump said it could be ended easily while warning Tehran not to strike any U.S. targets.

Asked about a Reuters report that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Netanyahu said: "I'm not going to get into that."

But he said he had informed Trump ahead of Friday's military action. American pilots are shooting down Iranian drones headed toward Israel, he said.

With worries growing of a regional conflagration, Trump has lauded Israel's offensive while denying Iranian allegations that the U.S. has taken part in it. He warned Tehran not to widen its retaliation to include U.S. targets or else face the "full strength and might" of the U.S. armed forces.

Trump has repeatedly said Iran could end the war by agreeing to tough restrictions on its nuclear program, which Iran says is for peaceful purposes but Western countries say could be used to make a bomb.

The latest round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, due to be held on Sunday, was scrapped after Tehran said it would not negotiate while under Israeli attack.