Diplomatic breakthrough or military action?: Trump's choice on Iran: ANALYSIS

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As President Donald Trump huddled with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, U.S. officials signaled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible -- or if the president might resort to military action instead.

Trump significantly ramped up his rhetoric against the Iranian regime ahead of the meeting, asserting that the U.S. knew exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding.

"He is an easy target, but is safe there -- We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin," Trump wrote on social media.

 

"We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran," he claimed in another post.

Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock - PHOTO: President Donald Trump departs after a family photo during the Group of Seven Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.
Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock - PHOTO: President Donald Trump departs after a family photo during the Group of Seven Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.

A last chance for diplomacy?

Despite the apparent saber rattling, U.S. negotiators on Tuesday continued to assess that Iran is in a weak position and could be forced to come back to the negotiating table and to ultimately accept a deal that would require it abandon all nuclear enrichment, according to multiple officials involved in the diplomatic process.

As Iran and Israel trade blows, the Iranian regime has signaled a willingness to resume discussions with the U.S., the officials said, adding that the Trump administration has been looking for more concrete commitments before backing off the war path.

 

If Iran returns to the negotiations and agrees to drop its uranium enrichment, U.S. officials believe a high-level meeting led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and potentially Vice President JD Vance would happen as soon as this week.

But that scenario likely requires Iran to move quickly. The president has already acknowledged his patience with the situation in the Middle East is wearing thin.

Sources familiar with the president's mindset said he has grown frustrated by a destabilized Iran's inability to provide the administration with immediate answers and also appears highly disinclined to allow for a situation to unfold where it appears as if Tehran has successfully called his military bluff.

U.S. Air Force via AP, FILE - PHOTO: Airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, May 2, 2023.
U.S. Air Force via AP, FILE - PHOTO: Airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, May 2, 2023.

A 'defensive' US posture -- for now

The U.S. military is already sending assets toward the region, including sending additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Middle East -- all moves that are defensive in nature, officials say.

 

"We're strong, we're prepared, we're defensive and present," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said of the U.S. posture in the Middle East during an interview with Fox News on Monday.

But while the repositioning of assets is intended to protect the 40,000 estimated American troops stationed in the region, it also leaves options open for the Trump administration if it decides to directly assist with Israel's ongoing offensive operation against Iran.

"It's our role to keep options on the table, but our posture is still defensive," said a U.S. official.

Senior Airman Devan Halstead/509th Bomb Wing/US Air Force - PHOTO: A B-2 Spirit returns to Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, from a deployment to Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory, May 9, 2025.
Senior Airman Devan Halstead/509th Bomb Wing/US Air Force - PHOTO: A B-2 Spirit returns to Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, from a deployment to Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory, May 9, 2025.
 

A major question is whether the U.S. will deploy its B-2 stealth bombers. The heavy strategic bombers are capable of carrying the 30,000 pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-buster bombs, which might be able to destroy Iran's deep underground nuclear facility at the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant.

Currently, the military's fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is located at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Six of the aircraft were previously deployed to the airbase on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean -- much closer to Iran. However, they were replaced by B-52 long-range bombers which are not capable of carrying the bunker-buster bombs needed to destroy the Fordo site.

Already, roughly a dozen U.S. Navy vessels are in Bahrain's territorial waters away from post, according to a Defense Department official, who said that the ships do not have any official tasking. Among them are a littoral combat ship, four minesweepers, and six water patrol craft, the official said.

The Navy also has two destroyers in the Red Sea, an aircraft carrier, and three other surface ships in the Arabian Sea. Two more American destroyers are in the eastern Mediterranean Sea -- each equipped with missile defense systems capable of shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles.

 

A shifting US agenda

Signs the Trump administration could be inching toward military action could include canceling the president's plans to travel to the Netherlands for a NATO summit next week.

At a press briefing on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the summit was still "on the books" -- but said the situation could change depending on the dynamic with Iran.

"This is something that is moving -- as things tend to -- very rapidly. So, I would say that anything is possible," she said.

Already, the president made an early exit from the G7 summit in Canada, opting to cut his time there short on Monday in order to monitor the situation in the Middle East from the White House.

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Iran sought US pressure on Israel for ceasefire via Gulf states, sources say

DUBAI (Reuters) -Tehran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to press U.S. President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire with Iran in return for Iranian flexibility in nuclear negotiations, two Iranian and three regional sources told Reuters on Monday.

Gulf leaders and their top diplomats worked the phones all weekend, speaking to each other, to Tehran, Washington and beyond in an effort to prevent a widening of the biggest ever confrontation between longstanding enemies Israel and Iran.

 

Iran is willing to be flexible in the nuclear talks if a ceasefire is reached, one of the Iranian sources said.

The Gulf states are deeply concerned the conflict will spin out of control, a Gulf source close to government officials told Reuters.

Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia have all appealed to Washington to press Israel to agree to a ceasefire and to resume talks with Tehran towards a nuclear deal, the Gulf source said.

A regional source and an official briefed on Iran's communications with the Gulf said Tehran had reached out to Qatar and Oman to mediate a return to nuclear talks, but insisted that a ceasefire with Israel be put in place first.

 

Iran made clear to Oman and Qatar that it would not negotiate while it is under attack and will only begin serious negotiations once it has finished responding to Israeli strikes, the official said.

Iran's foreign ministry was not immediately available to respond to Reuters' request for comment. Qatar's foreign ministry, Oman's ministry of information, Saudi Arabia's international media office, the White House and the U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office did not respond to a request for comment.

When asked if a diplomatic mechanism was being worked out to end the campaign, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told Army Radio on Monday: "It is a little early for that. You don't go to war and look to end it three days later."

 

Iran insists its nuclear programme is civilian, not military.

PUSH TO RESUME TALKS

Mediator Oman is drafting a ceasefire proposal designed to restart talks between the U.S. and Iran on Iran's nuclear programme, another regional source said.

A sixth round of US-Iran that had been planned in Muscat last Sunday was cancelled a day after Israel's surprise attacks on Friday.

 

The Omani draft calls on the U.S. to accept Iran's suspension of all nuclear enrichment for a minimum of one to three years while allowing firm inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the regional sources told Reuters.

The proposed deal would aim to build trust so Iran could enrich uranium up to a purity of 3.67% and allow an international uranium consortium to take part in Iran's program.

That proposal overlaps with what one of the Iranian sources said Tehran could accept if Israel agreed to an immediate ceasefire: a one-year suspension of nuclear enrichment, full access to IAEA inspectors and confidence-building measures.

In return, the Iranian source said Iran expects the U.S. to recognise its right to a peaceful nuclear program and to lift sanctions.

 

The two Iranian sources said that Tehran had also asked Turkey to appeal to Trump and that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to speak both to Trump and to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is unclear if Russia would play a broader diplomatic role.

The Turkish president's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Iran has vowed to "open the gates of hell" in retaliation for Israeli attacks, but the two Iranian sources said that Tehran had also signaled its willingness to halt its strikes if Israel stopped attacking.

Tehran is serious about pursuing a ceasefire because of fears the war could spread across the region with consequences that could last for decades, one of the Iranian sources said.

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Trump warns Tehran as agency says strikes damage Iran’s underground nuclear site

Israel has pounded Iran for a fifth day in an air campaign against its longstanding enemy’s military and nuclear programme.

The air strikes came as President Donald Trump warned residents of Tehran to evacuate and suggested the US was working on something “better than a ceasefire”.

Mr Trump left the G7 summit in Canada a day early to deal with the conflict between Israel and Iran, telling reporters on Air Force One during the flight back to Washington: “I’m not looking at a ceasefire. We’re looking at better than a ceasefire.”

 

When asked to explain, he said the US wanted to see “a real end” to the conflict that could involve Iran “giving up entirely”. He added: “I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate.”

Mr Trump’s cryptic messages added to the uncertainty in the region as residents of Tehran fled their homes in droves and the UN nuclear watchdog for the first time said Israeli strikes on Iran’s main enrichment facility at Natanz had also damaged its underground section, and not just the surface area.

Israel says its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites and ballistic missile programme is necessary to prevent its adversary from getting any closer to building an atomic weapon. The strikes have killed at least 224 people in Iran.

Iran has retaliated by launching more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel. The Israeli military said a new barrage of missiles was launched on Tuesday.

 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Tuesday it believes that Israel’s first aerial attacks on Iran’s Natanz enrichment site had “direct impacts” on the facility’s underground centrifuge halls.

“Based on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday’s attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz,” the watchdog said.

Located 135 miles south-east of Tehran, the Natanz facility was protected by anti-aircraft batteries, fencing and Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

The underground part of the facility is buried to protect it from air strikes and contains the bulk of the enrichment facilities at Natanz, with 10,000 centrifuges that enrich uranium up to 5%, experts assess.

 

The IAEA had earlier reported that Israeli strikes had destroyed an above-ground enrichment hall at Natanz and knocked out electrical equipment that powered the facility.

However, most of Iran’s enrichment takes place underground.

Although Israel has struck Natanz repeatedly and claims to have inflicted significant damage on its underground facilities, Tuesday’s IAEA statement marked the first time the agency has acknowledged impacts at the site.

Iran maintains its nuclear programme is peaceful.

While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on Tuesday that Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites have set the country’s nuclear programme back a “very, very long time”, Israel has not been able to reach Iran’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is buried deep underground.

 

Echoing an earlier Israeli military call for some 330,000 residents of a neighbourhood in downtown Tehran to evacuate, Mr Trump on Tuesday warned on social media that “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”.

Israeli security forces inspect a site hit by a missile launched from Iran
Israeli security forces inspect a site hit by a missile launched from Iran (Baz Ratner/AP)

Tehran is one of the largest cities in the Middle East, with around 10 million people, roughly equivalent to the entire population of Israel. People have been fleeing since hostilities began.

Asked why he had urged for the evacuation of Tehran, Mr Trump said: “I just want people to be safe.”

Downtown Tehran appeared to be emptying out early Tuesday, with many shops closed. The ancient Grand Bazaar was also closed, something that only happened in the past during anti-government demonstrations or at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

On the roads out of Tehran to the west, traffic stood bumper to bumper. Many appeared to be heading to the Caspian Sea, a popular holiday spot where a large number of middle and upper-class Iranians have second homes.

Long lines also could be seen at petrol stations in Tehran. Printed placards and billboards calling for a “severe” response to Israel were visible across the city. Authorities cancelled leave for doctors and nurses, while insisting everything was under control.

The Israeli military meanwhile claimed to have killed someone it described as Iran’s top general in a strike on Tehran. Iran did not immediately comment on the reported killing of Gen Ali Shadmani, who had just been named as the head of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, part of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Iran has named other generals to replace the top leaders of the guard and the regular armed forces after they were killed in earlier strikes.

Firefighters work at a site in central Israel hit by a missile launched from Iran
Firefighters work at a site in central Israel hit by a missile launched from Iran (Baz Ratner/AP)

Before leaving the summit in Canada, Mr Trump joined the other leaders in a joint statement saying Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and calling for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza”.

 

French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that discussions were under way on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but Mr Trump appeared to shoot that down in his comments on social media.

Mr Macron “mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a ‘cease fire’ between Israel and Iran”, Mr Trump wrote. “Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”

Mr Trump said he was not ready to give up on diplomatic talks, and could send vice president JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet the Iranians.

“I may,” he said. “It depends on what happens when I get back.”

 

Israeli military spokesperson Brig Gen Effie Defrin said on Monday his country’s forces had “achieved full aerial superiority over Tehran’s skies”.

The military said it destroyed more than 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers in central Iran, a third of Iran’s total, including multiple launchers just before they launched ballistic missiles towards Israel. It also destroyed two F-14 fighter planes that Iran used to target Israeli aircraft, the military said.

Israeli military officials also said fighter jets had struck 10 command centres in Tehran belonging to Iran’s Quds Force, an elite arm of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran.

Israel’s military issued an evacuation warning for a part of central Tehran that houses state TV and police headquarters, as well as three large hospitals, including one owned by the guard. It has issued similar evacuation warnings for parts of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon ahead of strikes.

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Trump demands 'real end' to Iran's nuclear programme, not ceasefire

US President Donald Trump has called for a "real end" to Iran's nuclear programme, dismissing the prospect of a temporary ceasefire.

Speaking to reporters early on Tuesday aboard Air Force One after his departure from the G7 summit in Canada, Trump said he wanted to see "an end, a real end — not a ceasefire, an end."

Trump left the summit in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta unexpectedly early, citing the escalating crisis in the Middle East as the reason.

 

Although Trump had at one point suggested that be believed Iran was open to negotiations, he said on social media that he had not reached out to the leadership in Tehran and rejected reports that he was working on achieving a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

"If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!!" he posted on Truth Social, apparently referring to nuclear negotiations between his administration and Iran.

The sixth round of those talks had been scheduled to take place Sunday in Oman, but was cancelled as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated.

Israel says its military campaign in Iran, now in its fifth day, is aimed at thwarting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

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