Israel's air campaign against Iran's missiles and launch systems appears to be having an effect.

Israel’s campaign against Iranian ballistic missiles and their launchers appears to be having an effect. On Tuesday, Iran was able to fire 20 ballistic missiles. That is far fewer than in previous days, which had seen around 370 ballistic missiles unleashed at Israel in total, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). A spokesman for the IDF on Tuesday said this campaign has resulted in Iran pushing back its launchers further from Israel. Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s effort to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and dismantling its military, is now in its fifth day.

“We have delivered significant blows to the Iranian regime, and as such, they have been pushed back into central Iran. They are now focusing their efforts on conducting missile fire from the area of Isfahan,” said Brig Gen. Effie Defrin. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) added that on Tuesday, it “conducted intelligence-based strikes on 12 missile launch sites and storage facilities. These missiles were aimed at Israeli civilians.”

All told, Israel said it has destroyed over 200 ballistic missile launchers, “which is a significant portion of Iran’s arsenal, according to the military,” Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian stated on X. “The strikes on the launchers have disrupted Iran’s attempts to fire more missiles at Israel, but the IDF assesses that Iran still has the capability to launch attacks and cause devastating harm in Israel. “

“We will remain prepared on defense. I assess that the Iranians will continue trying to harm Israel,” IDF Operations Directorate chief Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk in a call with reporters.

We previously reported that IDF said it had “destroyed over 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers” since the current fighting began last Friday. “This amounts to one-third of the surface-to-surface missile launchers possessed by the Iranian regime.”

As air superiority is assured farther east over Iran, tankers are able to push in that direction, as well. This allows for two major enhancements to Israel’s air war. First off, there is more loiter time for fighters that are tasked with hunting and destroying Iran’s ground-mobile long-range ballistic missile systems. This is critical as this mission set is incredibly challenging even when done over smaller distances, but having to fly all the way from Israel to Iran just to get on station means there is far less time to actually find, fix and destroy the launchers, which can be parked almost anywhere. Having tanker assets closer means aircraft have more time to stay on station to search launchers or respond to real-time intelligence on the whereabouts of the launchers. Medium altitude, long-range drones are also likely assisting in this effort.

The other part of this is that now fighters can deliver heavier direct attack payloads (bombs), and don’t have to rely on less powerful standoff munitions to hit their targets, both due to more robust tanking closer to the target and the degraded air defense threat picture. We are now seeing much more powerful weapons dropped on targets in central Iran, for instance. This means Israel can go after hardened targets, such as missile caves, with bunker busters to destroy large stockpiles of the weapons, or at least trap them inside the caves and disable any fissures they can be launched from.

These activities appear to have made a dent in Iran’s ability to execute mass long-range missile launches. This is incredibly important as saturation attacks stress missile defenses to their breaking point, allowing ‘leakers’ to get through. Lower volume assaults are still a real danger but they can be more easily countered by Israeli and U.S. missile defenses.

The situation is something of a war of attrition over great distances. The question is will missile interceptors run out before Iran’s ability to launch its own missiles does? At this time it seems Iran is on the downside of that equation, but midcourse intercept capabilities are especially limited in quantity and degradation of that defensive layer would put more stress on the terminal defense layer, even if fewer missiles are fired.

It is possible that Iran could be saving their weapons for a massive barrage, or to attack U.S. bases in a contingency, but clearly their capacity to do so is being reduced with every passing hour. Also, it’s worth noting that this has to do with longer-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, not Iran’s more numerous and even easier to conceal shorter-range systems.

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is claiming a missile barrage destroyed an Israeli intelligence center in the city of  Herzilyia, according to the official Iranian Press TV media outlet.

“The logistical headquarters of the Israeli Military Intelligence Unit, known as ‘Aman,’ has been destroyed in the latest phase of Iran’s retaliatory operation ‘True Promise III,’” Press TV claimed.

Israeli officials have yet to comment on these claims.

“Reports indicated that there was a direct hit in central Israel, but authorities have not yet confirmed this,” The Jerusalem Post reported. “There was damage to property in central Israel, Israel Police added.”

Videos posted online suggest that site and another Israeli intelligence headquarters were struck as part of a barrage of 20 missiles.

The IAF also released video showing it striking several surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch sites and radars located in western Iran this morning.

“In recent days, fighter jets have carried out approximately five waves of strikes aimed at diminishing Iran’s air defense capabilities, establishing the IAF’s aerial superiority,” IDF claimed. “This paved the way to Tehran and additional targets deep within Iran. At the same time, remotely piloted aircraft are identifying and neutralizing launchers and radars on the ground. So far, the IAF has over than 70 Iranian air defense missile batteries.”

Many of those include road-mobile SAM systems, which pose a major threat to IAF aircraft as they can pop-up virtually anywhere at any time.

Among the SAM sites hit by the IAF was also an Iranian HAWK/Mersad launcher in western Iran.

As the war rages on, the U.S. Air Force is sending additional fighters to the region. The fighter movements follow the arrival in Europe of more than two-dozen U.S. Air Force KC-135R and KC-46A tankers that flew across from the United States in recent days.

There are also indications that the U.S. Navy is becoming more wary of a possible Iranian attack. Satellite imagery appears to show several Navy vessels leaving Salman Port in Bahrain. Less than 150 miles across the Persian Gulf from Iran, it would be a prime target for Tehran should it decide to lash out directly against the U.S. We reached out to the sea service and will update this story with any information they share.

Though the Pentagon last night said the U.S. is not taking any offensive actions against Iran amid the plus-up of U.S. forces in the region, Trump hinted that America may have some involvement beyond the defensive measures of swatting down drones and missiles with Navy destroyers, Air Force fighters and ground-based air and missile defense systems.

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff,’” Trump said on Truth. “Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”

It is unclear what Trump meant. U.S. Central Command referred us to the White House for comment. We’ve reached out to the White House for more clarity and will update this story with any pertinent details provided.

Trump also said he has no immediate plans to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network. “He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Still, an Israeli official hinted Khamenei could be on the target list, according to a post on X by Reuters reporter Idrees Ali.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he is pushing for regime change.

Meanwhile, Israel’s campaign against Iran’s leaders continued. The IDF said for the second time since Operation Rising Lion began five days ago, it killed the Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff. This time it was Ali Shadmani, said to be Khamenei’s closest military advisor.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that new evidence indicates direct hits on Iran’s underground uranium enrichment halls at Natanz, the site of Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility, following Israeli strikes on Friday. IAEA made that assessment [“b]ased on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday’s attacks.”

IAEA said there were no changes to report at Esfahan and Fordow, two other enrichment sites hit by Israel in the opening phase of Operation Rising Lion.

We previously reported that the head of the IAEA on Monday said that there is a possibility of both radiological and chemical contamination at Natanz. However, the IAEA added that radiation levels outside the complex are currently normal.

On the other hand, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal, a power loss after the attack on Natanz may have destroyed some of the roughly 14,000 underground centrifuges at the site. An Israeli official told the same publication that underground parts of the complex may have imploded, but this has not been verified, and this claim has been questioned by nuclear experts.

Isfahan was apparently struck again on Tuesday. Video emerged online showing explosions and smoke following an Israeli airstrike there.

There is a huge challenge in trying to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon because, while infrastructure can be destroyed, the fissile material needed for a bomb is easily moved.

“Iran’s 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium could fit into as a few as 16 cylinders measuring 36-inches (91.4 centimeters) in height,” according to Bloomberg News. “Even if Israel destroys Iran’s enrichment infrastructure, the location of that material would still need to be verified.”

Former CENTCOM commander, retired Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, suggested future strikes on Fordow.

“The only thing I can say about Fordow is that I wouldn’t want to be within five kilometers of it at this point,” he said.

Iran’s Cybersecurity Command has prohibited government officials and security teams from using equipment connected to communications systems, “including phones, smart watches, portable computers, etc.,” the official Iranian Fars news agency reported. “Dear people, be sure to minimize the use of smart devices connected to the Internet and take the necessary precautions.”

It is unclear what sparked the warning, but it is worth noting that during Israel’s conflict with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization of Lebanon, there was a major attack in September 2024 using exploding cell phones and pagers that targeted thousands. 

Meanwhile, a pro-Israel hacking group says it attacked a major Iranian bank, causing widespread outages, Axios reported.

“The attack would mark the first major cyberattack on critical infrastructure” during this war, the publication noted. “Predatory Sparrow, an Israeli hacking group, said today that it is behind a series of cyberattacks against Iran’s Bank Sepah.”

With heightened concerns that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, images of flames engulfing a ship in the region posted on social media yesterday caused a great deal of worry and speculation. However, it turns out there was a collision between two vessels, a maritime security expert told The War Zone early Tuesday morning. It was unrelated to any military action, U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said in its analysis.

The tanker Front Eagle was involved in a collision with the tanker Adalynn off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, the official told us, adding that navigational error was the most likely cause.

“Front Eagle, which is managed by Anglo-Eastern, was fully laden at the time of the collision and bound for the Chinese port of Zhoushan, while Adalynn, which appears on the Lloyd’s List dark fleet list, had just departed the anchorage in ballast condition,” Lloyd’s List explained.

The White House released a statement Tuesday morning it says shows how U.S. President Donald Trump has been clear about his vow that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons. The statement provides 16 instances where Trump has made comments to that effect since returning to the White House and several made on the campaign trail.

However, as The New York Times noted, Trump’s messaging has been “vacillating from a hands-off approach to embracing diplomacy to at times suggesting that he was weighing further U.S. involvement.”

“The contradictory comments have left a trail of confusion as Israelis, Iranians, and the broader Middle East try to understand whether the biggest conflict between Israel and Iran in history would escalate further and whether Mr. Trump, long opposed to foreign wars, would plunge the United States into one,” the publication explained.

“It’s very puzzling,” Shira Efron, director of research at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group, told the Times. “You’re seeing him say one thing and then another.”

On Friday, the first day of the war, Mr. Trump initially called Israel’s attacks “excellent” and “very successful,” but he also said that he believed a diplomatic solution between Israel and Iran was possible.

“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,” the president said. “Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left.”

The following day, Mr. Trump recounted a call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, saying that both he and Mr. Putin said the battle between Israel and Iran should end. And on Sunday, he reinforced his stated position by saying Israel and Iran should make a deal.

Update: 5:36 PM Eastern –

A U.S. official gave us some clarification on Trump’s social media post about airspace over Iran.

“There are no U.S. aircraft over Iran, and we are not acting in any offensive capacity,” the U.S. official told The War Zone. The official could not confirm additional aircraft movements and referred us back to a statement Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued yesterday that he directed additional U.S. assets to the CENTCOM region.

Update: 6:03 PM Eastern –

Iran has launched another barrage of missiles at Israel. Officials estimate that there were at least 15 in this volley, with no immediate reports of injuries. A short while later, Israel’s Home Front Command told citizens they could leave protected spaces.

Iranian officials say the attacks will continue.

Update: 6:21 PM Eastern –

Video emerged online claiming to show the failed launch of an Israeli interceptor.

Tehran too has its air defenses working as Israel launches another wave of airstrikes.

Update: 6:52 PM Eastern –

Israeli effectors working against Iranian missiles attacking Tel Aviv can be seen in the following video.

Due to the ongoing security concerns, the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, which was closed today, will remain closed through Friday.