President Donald Trump announced Saturday night that the U.S. had bombed three key nuclear facilities in Iran and threatened more attacks if Tehran doesn’t seek peace. All eyes are on Iran to see how it will retaliate. But an expert on the country said most of its options would likely induce a response that the regime would’t survive.

After U.S. strikes on three key nuclear facilities in Iran late Saturday, all eyes are on Tehran to see how it will respond.

Until now, the fighting had mostly involved Iran and Israel, which launched airstrikes on the Islamic republic last week. President Donald Trump’s decision to send bombers and cruise missiles into Iran dramatically escalates the conflict and moves the U.S. into offensive operations, not just a defensive posture to protect Israel and American troops in the region.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media that Iran “reserves all options” in defending itself.

While Trump threatened more attacks unless Iran seeks peace, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a top Iran expert, said it’s unlikely the country’s leadership will go that route. But its response could also prove to be catastrophic.

“Many of Iran’s retaliatory options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,” he said in a series of posts on X. “They can strike US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz, or rain missiles on Israel—but the regime may not survive the blowback.”

Energy markets are poised to suffer a major jolt as investors digest the implications of the U.S. bombing Iran, a top oil exporter.

Crude prices had already surged in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s airstrikes, and could soar even higher, depending on how Iran responds.

In a note last week, George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst-case scenario of a complete disruption to Iranian oil supplies and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $120 per barrel.

That’s because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point in the global energy trade, as the equivalent of 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day, flows through the narrow waterway.

Iran’s ability to use proxies and allies in the region to retaliate on its behalf has also been severely weakened as earlier Israeli attacks have crippled Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Meanwhile, Sadjadpour noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are a substantial force of 190,000 troops, but not monolithic.

“Do they continue to defer to the 86-year-old Khamenei as their commander in chief, though his regional and nuclear ambitions have now ended in colossal failure?” he asked.

Other analysts also warned of the potential for Iran to retaliate by taking Americans as hostages or launching cyberattacks. And Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen said before Saturday that any U.S. attack on Iran would trigger attacks on U.S. vessels in the region.

But retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who previously served as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told CNN that he doesn’t think Iran will resort to a maximum response like blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Instead, it may launch some missiles at U.S. bases in the region or direct pro-Tehran militias in Iraq to attack U.S. forces.

“I don’t see a major response,” he predicted. “This Iranian regime calculates. It’s very careful to understand where it wants to go.”

There are about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region, mostly spread out across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

For now, it’s not clear yet that the U.S. attacks on Iran will prove to be decisive. Sadjadpour noted that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes caving in to pressure projects weakness and invites more pressure.

But he also said Khamenei is not a “reckless gambler,” creating tension between his survival instincts and his defiant instincts.

“This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,” Sadjadpour added. “It could entrench the regime—or hasten its demise. It could prevent a nuclear Iran—or accelerate one. Military attacks/humiliations have both strengthened dictatorships (Iran 1980) and weakened them (Argentina, Milosevic).”

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Where are the US military bases in the Middle East as Iran threatens retaliation?

After weeks of threats by Donald Trump, U.S. forces have directly attacked Iran’s three main nuclear sites - and Tehran has said it reserves all options to defend itself.

Trump claimed to have “completely, totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, in a series of missile strikes and bombings which came days after giving himself a two-week deadline to make a decision on the attack.

Tehran had previously issued stark warnings to Washington that it would respond firmly in the event of a direct US attack directly attacked Iran.

“The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,” supreme leader Ali Khamenei said in a televised address on Wednesday. “The US entering in this matter [war] is 100% to its own detriment. The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter.”

The US has long had major military bases in the Gulf Arab States. It moved some aircraft and ships last week that may be vulnerable to a potential Iranian attack and limited access to its largest installation, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

Where are the US bases?

The US operates a broad network of sites across at least 19 locations in the wider region, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Eight are permanent, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Tens of thousands of US troops are stationed across the Middle East, in Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran — and much closer than Israel.

Those bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defences as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is several hundred kilometers (miles) further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire.

Iran could also choose to attack key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for US involvement in the war. A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran — briefly cut the kingdom's oil production in half.

Bahrain

Naval Support Activity Bahrain (NSA Bahrain) is home to the US Naval Forces Central Command and United States Fifth Fleet.

The deep-water port can America’s largest military vessels including aircraft carriers. Four anti-mine vessels, two logistical support ships and several US Coast Guard vessels have a home port in Bahrain.

Britain’s Royal Navy opened and operated the port during the 1920s, and the first US military presence was established when they joined World War 2. After the war it was recognised as a US Navy site.

Iraq

The US has a number of military bases in Iraq, including two air fields - the Al-Harir and Al Asad air bases - and dozens of camps and outposts. These bases were repeatedly targeted by pro-Iran militant groups after Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October 2023.

At the height of the US occupation of the country from 2003 until 2011, there were reportedly 170,000 US personnel stationed in 505 bases across the country.

In January 2024, the Iraqi government requested a start to negotiations on ending the US military presence in Iraq, as regional tensions grew due to the situation in Gaza.

Kuwait

Kuwait plays host to several US installations, including two air bases, alongside a number of other outposts.

Ali Al Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing, one of the main hubs for delivering combat support in the region.

Qatar

Qatar’s Al Udeid AIr Base is the largest of its kind in the region, according to the Reuters news agency. It includes components of Central Command (Centcom), and elements of its air forces and special operations forces in the Middle East.

The 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, which includes “airlift, aerial refueling intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, and aeromedical evacuation assets,” AFP reports.

Saudi Arabia

The Prince Sultan Air Base is a major site which hosted a large US presence during its war in Iraq, and from which the US air force still operates.

Elsewhere, the Eskan Village near Riyadh serves as a housing facility for US military personnel, largely those who are under training.

United Arab Emirates

Al Dahfra Air Base is home to the US 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, which has 10 aircraft squadrons and holds MQ-9 Reaper drones.

The base also hosts the Gulf Air Warfare Centre for air and missile defense training.

Egypt

The US does not hold any major combat bases in Egypt, but there are a number of military facilities stationed in the country.

Naval Medical Research Unit Three is based in Cairo, conducting research on infectious diseases and their prevention, and hosting the department of defense’s largest overseas laboratory.

Jordan

The Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan was allocated for $143 million in upgrades and expansion in 2018.

It hosts military partners including Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, with two runways almost 10,000 feet long.

Has Iran attacked the bases before?

US forces have been attacked on several occasions by Iran-backed forces since the outbreak of the latest war in Gaza and the subsequent conflicts with other state and non-state actors in the wider region.

In January 2024, three American soldiers were killed and dozens more injured after a one-way attack drone hit the military base Tower 22 in Jordan, near the Syrian border.

US officials blamed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias, for the attack.

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Trump threatens Iran with further attacks if it doesn't seek peace

US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened Iran with further attacks if Tehran does not seek peace, following an attack on nuclear facilities in the country.

"There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we've witnessed over the last eight days," Trump said in an address to the nation from the White House.

"Remember, there are many targets left," the US president continued.

Trump said that US strikes "completely and totally obliterated" Tehran's "key nuclear enrichment facilities."

The US president said that Iran "must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater, and a lot easier."

Just over two hours earlier, Trump had announced that US aircraft had attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, including Natanz, Esfahan and the Fordow uranium enrichment facility - widely believed to be one of Israel's most critical targets in its ongoing conflict with Iran.

Israel launched a campaign on June 13, saying it is aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon - a charge that Tehran has consistently denied, saying its nuclear programme only serves civilian purposes.