Syria's government misread how Israel would respond to its troops deploying to the country's south this week, encouraged by U.S. messaging that Syria should be governed as a centralized state, eight sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Israel carried out strikes on Syrian troops and on Damascus on Wednesday in an escalation that took the Islamist-led leadership by surprise, the sources said, after government forces were accused of killing scores of people in the Druze city of Sweida.

Damascus believed it had a green light from both the U.S. and Israel to dispatch its forces south despite months of Israeli warnings not to do so, according to the sources, which include Syrian political and military officials, two diplomats, and regional security sources.

That understanding was based on public and private comments from U.S. special envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack, as well as on nascent security talks with Israel, the sources said. Barrack has called for Syria to be centrally administered as "one country" without autonomous zones.

A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on private diplomatic discussions but said the United States supported the territorial unity of Syria. "The Syrian state has an obligation to protect all Syrians, including minority groups," the spokesperson said, urging the Syrian government to hold perpetrators of violence accountable.

In response to Reuters questions, a senior official from Syria's ministry of foreign affairs denied that Barrack's comments had influenced the decision to deploy troops, which was made based on "purely national considerations" and with the aim of "stopping the bloodshed, protecting civilians and preventing the escalation of civil conflict".

Damascus sent troops and tanks to Sweida province on Monday to quell fighting between Bedouin tribes and armed factions within the Druze community - a minority that follows a religion derived from Islam, with followers in Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

Syrian forces entering the city came under fire from Druze militia, according to Syrian sources.

Subsequent violence attributed to Syrian troops, including field executions and the humiliation of Druze civilians, triggered Israeli strikes on Syrian security forces, the defense ministry in Damascus and the environs of the presidential palace, according to two sources, including a senior Gulf Arab official.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel intervened to block Syrian troops from entering southern Syria - which Israel has publicly said should be a demilitarized zone - and to uphold a longstanding commitment to protect the Druze.

Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has vowed to hold accountable those responsible for violations against the Druze. He blamed "outlaw groups" seeking to inflame tensions for any crimes against civilians and did not say whether government forces were involved.

The U.S. and others quickly intervened to secure a ceasefire by Wednesday evening. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the flare-up as a "misunderstanding" between Israel and Syria.

A Syrian and a Western source familiar with the matter said Damascus believed that talks with Israel as recently as last week in Baku produced an understanding over the deployment of troops to southern Syria to bring Sweida under government control.

Netanyahu's office declined to comment in response Reuters' questions.

Israel said on Friday it had agreed to allow limited access by Syrian forces into Sweida for the next two days. Soon after, Syria said it would deploy a force dedicated to ending the communal clashes, which continued into Saturday morning.

Joshua Landis, head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said it appeared Sharaa had overplayed his hand earlier in the week.

"It seems that his military staff misunderstood the backing of the U.S. It also misunderstood Israel's stand on the Jabal Druze (in Sweida) from its talks with Israel in Baku," he said.

'TOOK IT AS A YES'

A Syrian military official said correspondence with the U.S. had led Damascus to believe it could deploy forces without Israel confronting them.

The official said U.S. officials had not responded when informed about plans for the deployment, leading the Syrian leadership to believe it had been tacitly approved and "that Israel would not interfere."

A diplomat based in Damascus said Syrian authorities had been "overconfident" in its operation to seize Sweida, "based on U.S. messaging that turned out not to reflect reality."

U.S. envoy Barrack has said publicly and in private meetings in Damascus that Syria should be "one country," without autonomous rule for its Druze, Kurdish or Alawite communities, which remain largely distrustful of the new Islamist-led leadership.

That distrust has prompted Druze factions and a major Kurdish force in northeast Syria to resist Syrian army deployments, and demand their own fighters be integrated into the army as wholesale units only stationed in their territory.

Landis said it appeared Sharaa had understood Barrack's statements against federalism in Syria "to mean that the central government could impose its will on the Druze minority by force."

Syria in Transition, an independent monthly journal, said in a post on X on Thursday citing well-placed sources that Syrian authorities misunderstanding of messaging by the US and Israel resulted in the deployment of troops to Sweida.

The senior Gulf official said Damascus had made a "big mistake" in its approach to Sweida, saying troops had committed violations including killing and humiliating Druze. The nature of violence handed Israel an opportunity to act forcefully, the Gulf official and another source said.

The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an independent monitoring group, said on Friday the death toll from the violence had reached at least 321 people, among them medical personnel, women and children. It said they included field executions by all sides.

Reuters was able to verify the time and location of some videos showing dead bodies in Sweida, but could not independently verify who conducted the killings or when they occurred.

A regional intelligence source said Sharaa had not been in control of events on the ground because of the lack of a disciplined military and his reliance instead on a patchwork of militia groups, often with a background in Islamic militancy.

In sectarian violence in Syria's coastal region in March hundreds of people from the Alawite minority were killed by forces aligned to Sharaa.

With more blood spilt and distrust of Sharaa's government high among minorities, the senior Gulf Arab official said there are "real fears that Syria is heading towards being broken up into statelets."

The official from the Syrian ministry of foreign affairs said the Sweida operation was not aimed at revenge or escalation, but at preserving the peace and unity of the country.

Syrian troops were ready to re-engage to end the communal violence there "whenever appropriate conditions arise, including clear guarantees from the United States that Israel will not intervene," the official said, speaking before the Israeli announcement.

US DID NOT BACK ISRAELI STRIKES

Israel initially lobbied the United States to keep the country weak and decentralised after Assad's fall, Reuters reported in February.

In May, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Sharaa, said he would lift all U.S. sanctions, and nudged Israel to engage with Damascus even though much of Israel's political establishment remains skeptical of new Syrian leadership.

A State Department spokesperson said on Thursday that the U.S. "did not support" Israel's strikes on Sweida this week.

The attacks also came as a shock to some Americans in Syria. Hours before Israel struck the capital city on Wednesday, executives from three US-based energy companies arrived in Damascus for a day of meetings.

The lead member and organizer, Argent LNG CEO Jonathan Bass, told Reuters he had been sufficiently reassured by Washington that the violence unfolding in Sweida would not escalate to Damascus.

They were pitching an energy project to Syria's finance minister when Israel struck.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Syrian presidency announces ceasefire after days of violence

Syria’s Islamist-led government has begun deploying internal security forces in Sweida, a predominantly Druze area, following intense sectarian bloodshed that has claimed hundreds of lives.

The deployment, confirmed by an interior ministry spokesperson on Saturday, coincides with an urgent call from the Syrian presidency for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, urging all parties to commit to ending hostilities across all areas.

The internal developments came after US envoy Tom Barrack announced on Friday that Syria and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire.

Israel had intervened in the conflict earlier this week, hitting government forces and the defence ministry building in Damascus, while declaring support for the Druze minority.

Mr Barrack, who serves as both Washington’s Syria envoy and ambassador to Turkey, said the ceasefire is supported by Turkey, Jordan, and other neighbouring countries.

Syria’s Sweida province has been engulfed by nearly a week of violence which began with clashes between Bedouin fighters and Druze factions, before drawing in government security forces that were sent to the area by Damascus.

Israeli soldiers stand guard as Syrian Druze people cross back into Syria at the Israeli-Syrian border, in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams on 17 July (AP)

Mr Barrack said Israel and Syria had agreed to a ceasefire and called on Druze, Bedouins and Sunnis to put down their weapons “and together with other minorities build a new and united Syrian identity”.

Israel has said it aims to protect Syria’s Druze minority while adding that it wants areas of south Syria near its border to remain demilitarised. Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has accused Israel of seeking to sow division among Syrians.

On Friday, an Israeli official said Israel agreed to allow Syrian forces limited access to the Sweida area for the next two days.

The Druze religious sect began as a 10th-century offshoot of Ismailism, a branch of Shia Islam. More than half of the roughly million Druze worldwide live in Syria.

Most of the other Druze live in Lebanon and Israel, including in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 War and annexed in 1981.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Syria's armed Bedouins say they have withdrawn from Sweida after week of clashes

Syria's Bedouin tribes said they withdrew from the Druze-majority city of Sweida on Sunday, following a US-brokered ceasefire declaration announced a day prior.

Their withdrawal comes after days of clashes that began last Sunday between Druze militias and Sunni Bedouin tribes in Sweida, which had been sparked by a series of tit-for-tat kidnappings.

Government forces intervened, nominally to restore order, but ended up taking the Bedouins’ side against the Druze.

On Thursday, the military forces largely withdrew from the southern province of Sweida, a day after Israel launched several strikes on Damascus, citing a need to protect the Druze community.

However, shortly after, state media reported that Druze militants had launched retaliatory attacks on the Bedouin communities, resulting in the redeployment of government forces on Saturday to halt the renewed fighting.

In his second televised address since the fighting started, al-Sharaa blamed the conflict’s escalation between “lawless groups on one side and Bedouin communities on the other, leading to an unprecedented deterioration of the situation," and urged all parties to "fully commit" to the ceasefire.

Al-Sharaa, who was more sympathetic to the Bedouins, had tried to appeal to the Druze community while remaining critical of the militias. He later urged the Bedouins to leave the city, saying that they “cannot replace the role of the state in handling the country’s affairs and restoring security.”

Shortly after the announcement, Syria's interior ministry said the fighting had stopped and that Sweida had been cleared of Bedouin tribal fighters, although several clashes reportedly still took place on Saturday evening.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights report at least 940 people have been killed since clashes erupted on Sunday. Meanwhile, the UN estimated that roughly 80,000 people have been displaced.

The Bedouins' withdrawal brought a cautious calm to the area, with humanitarian convoys reportedly on their way. The Syrian Red Crescent said Sunday they are sending 32 trucks to Sweida loaded with food, medicine, water, fuel and other aid, after the fighting left the province with power cuts and shortages. Syrian state media SANA said that the Health Ministry is also sending a convoy of trucks.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

After multiple rounds of renewed fighting, will the Syria truce finally last?

The challenge now is whether the two sides can de-escalate. Numerous Bedouin tribes from across Syria mobilized to fight in Sweida.

On Friday, US envoy to Syria Tom Barrack announced that a truce had been agreed to in Syria after five days of clashes in which Israel had intervened and bombed Damascus.

The clashes were between Bedouin tribesmen and Druze, and the Syrian government had tried to intervene to prevent them, but Israel had demanded that the government leave the area, accusing it of having been involved in oppressing the Druze.

Barrack said he was grateful to Jordan for playing a leadership role in the region to help support the ceasefire. “We are making positive steps to support a unified, stable Syria at peace with its neighbors, including our Jordanian allies.”

Of interest was Barrack’s social media post on Friday in which he said that Israel’s prime minister and the president of Syria had agreed to the truce. In essence, the Syrian conflict, which was made up of internal clashes, now appears to have been outsourced to Israel, with Jordanian and Turkish involvement.

Ankara and Amman are very critical of Israel’s bombing of Syria, and they argue that Israel is destabilizing it. In their view, Israel is demanding that southern Syria be demilitarized, which has helped lead to a power vacuum. Into the vacuum, armed groups have emerged that are fighting each other; Israel’s bombing has only made this more chaotic.

The US administration has not critiqued Israel openly. However, Al-Monitor quoted a senior Trump administration official as telling Israel, “You can’t embark on a new war every few days."

US allegedly reprimands Israel over strikes in Syria

The Israeli bombing of Damascus came three weeks after Israel also carried out strikes on Iran that led to US involvement in a ceasefire there as well. It has also come as Israel continues its strikes in Gaza and Lebanon.

The question now is whether the ceasefire in southern Syria can hold.

The Druze in Sweida have been hard-pressed by Bedouin tribesmen. In the absence of the government security forces, it appears clear that fighting would lead to more atrocities.

The Bedouin have accused the Druze of killing their kinsmen in Sweida and also kidnapping Bedouin. Druze have accused the Bedouin of crimes.

One video shows Druze men being forced to jump from an apartment balcony under gunfire. Another video appears to show Bedouin women and children killed in what may have been a mortar strike. The videos lead to a fear of worse crimes.

Barrack, who has been tasked with working with the new Syrian government, said he was “thankful to all sides for their break from chaos and confusion as we attempt to navigate all parties to a more durable and peaceful solution in Syria.”

The challenge now is to see if the two sides can back down. Numerous Bedouin tribes from all over Syria had mobilized to fight in Sweida. The government had to deploy security forces to some areas in Syria to prevent reprisals against the Druze.

The Bedouin mobilization apparently brought together tribes that don’t usually get along, seeking to defend their comrades. Similarly, the attacks on the Druze led to their kinsmen in Israel seeking to enter Syria to help their comrades.

The IDF said that forces were attacked in violent protests near the Golan fence with Syria between Friday and Saturday. This came three days after some Druze had crossed into Syria to help their community.

This conflict clearly has the capability of spilling over. Israel has tried to put down a new redline in southern Syria, basically staking a claim to a sphere of influence that appears to extend some 80 kilometers or more from the Golan border, all the way to Sweida and the outskirts of Damascus.

This is a new front for Israel, and Jerusalem appears to want to manage the conflict now in Syria as it does in southern Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and other places.

Jerusalem has also set itself up for further involvement in the future. Because Israel is now a party to a ceasefire, it means that Washington will now have to deal with not only the ceasefire in Syria but also with Iran.

The Trump administration had wanted to focus on other regions of the world, but its first seven months in office have largely been consumed by the Middle East. It bombed the Houthis until it realized that the campaign had diminishing returns. Then it bombed Iran as part of Israel’s strikes there. Then it got involved in brokering a ceasefire in southern Syria. It has also had to deal with Gaza, working on a ceasefire in January and then working to get American citizen Eden Alexander released.

Keeping the ceasefire will be in the interest of Washington and Damascus. The wild card is likely Israel’s own calculus about what comes next.

Is it in Israel’s interest to bomb Syria every few months to maintain a redline in southern Syria? Will the decision to leave a power vacuum in Syria lead to extremist groups or Iran seeking to infiltrate the area?

Many Syrian social media accounts have noted that after the Israeli strikes on the heart of Damascus, they had no hopes of peace with Israel. They said that after the fall of the Assad regime, they had entertained turning over a new leaf with Israel and considering a path to peace. There had even been rumors that Syria would join the Abraham Accords.

Now, many of these Syrians are outraged at Israel. It has also caused a deeper rift with the Druze, who are accused of being linked to the Jewish state. The aggressive stance of Jerusalem may therefore backfire.

Prior to the clashes in Sweida on July 13, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa had been in Baku. Azerbaijan is a strategic partner of Israel. It had looked like the trip might smooth the way to more engagement with Damascus, but the bombing of the Syrian capital likely harmed that.

Some Israeli officials make statements against Sharaa, referring to him by his previous nom de guerre “Julani” and claiming Israel should target him. It’s hard to see how relations can improve so long as such rhetoric continues.

At the same time, Israeli media have taken to calling the Syrian government the “regime,” similar to how Assad’s regime was widely referred to. This indicates that the government of Syria is seen as an enemy – which also makes it less likely to pave the way for peace.