It’s been more than three months since India and Pakistan engaged in a massive aerial battle on the night of May 6/7, according to some estimates, the biggest aerial battle of the 21st century involving nearly 125 aircraft battling it out in an aerial space of little over 500 km for nearly an hour.

The outcome of that aerial battle is hotly debated. There are claims and counterclaims from both sides, and the evidence we have is too sketchy to draw any firm conclusion.

Pakistan was quick to claim that it downed five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafales. India took some time to analyse before declaring that it downed five Pakistani fighter jets and one large aircraft.

“We have at least five fighters confirmed killed and one large aircraft, which could be an ELINT aircraft or an AEW&C aircraft, which was taken out from a distance of about 300 kilometres, which is the largest-ever recorded surface-to-air kill that we can talk about,” the Indian Air Force (IAF) Air Chief Marshal A P Singh said on August 9.

However, Dassault Aviation CEO Eric Trappier has officially refuted the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) claim that it downed three Indian Rafale jets during Operation Sindoor. Speaking to French outlet Avion Chasse, Trappier confirmed that only one Rafale was lost, and that too due to a technical malfunction at high altitude, not enemy fire.

On the other hand, Pakistan has not acknowledged any combat losses. However, Pakistan’s retired Air Marshal Masood Akhtar has admitted to losing an AEW&C aircraft during India’s Operation Sindoor on the intervening night of May 9 and 10.

Akhtar, during an interview with a Pakistani media outlet, said that the aircraft was destroyed in one of India’s precision missile strikes at Islamabad’s Bholari airbase.

“They (Indian forces) fired four back-to-back BrahMos surface-to-surface missiles or air-to-surface missiles, I am not sure. The Pakistani pilots rushed to secure their aircraft, but the missiles kept on coming, and unfortunately, the fourth one hit the hangar at Bholari airbase, where one of our AWACS was standing. It was damaged,” he said in a video shared by Frontal Force on X – a platform that reports on ongoing conflicts.

Interestingly, this could be the second AEW&C aircraft, most likely the Saab 2000 Erieye, that Pakistan lost (the IAF chief had clearly mentioned that a large aircraft, most likely AEW&C or ELINT, was shot down deep inside Pakistan, nearly 300 km away).

So, out of the maze of claims, counterclaims, and half-hearted acknowledgments, we can deduce that, perhaps, India lost at least one Rafale fighter jet and Pakistan lost at least one AEW&C aircraft (the IAF chief did not mention the loss on the ground).

In Pakistan’s case, it was most likely a Saab 2000 Erieye.

SAAB 2000 Erieye vs Rafale; Which Is A Bigger Loss?

The media’s fascination and the sheer glamor of Rafale fighter jets ensured that the international press and the common public alike were primarily focused on Rafale.

However, any aviation expert would tell you that for an Air Force, losing an AWE&C aircraft is always a bigger loss than losing any fighter jet, no matter how expensive, modern, or glamorous.

Firstly, because while any Air Force fields hundreds of fighter jets, the number of aerial assets like AWACS, AEW&C, and tankers is always very limited.

For instance, while the IAF operates over 500 fighter jets, it only has six AWE&C aircraft (three Israeli EL/W-2090 Phalcon radar mounted on Russian-origin Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft and three DRDO ‘Netra’ – Embraer 145 ERJ-based).

Similarly, while the PAF operates a fleet of over 300 fighter jets, it has only 10 AWACS (six Saab 2000 Erieye and four ZDK-03, a Chinese AESA radar mounted on a Y-8F-600 airframe, designated the ‘Karakoram Eagle’).

So, the PAF operates one AWACS aircraft for more than 30 fighter jets. Similarly, India operates one AWACS aircraft for over 80 fighter jets.

AWE&C aircraft work as the eyes of the fighter jets in the sky; they not only pick enemy targets, but also often guide the fighter jets and the missiles launched by them, allowing fighter jets to fly even with their radars off.

Think of it as a high-tech command post in the sky, offering 360-degree radar surveillance and directing fighter jets and ground-based air defense systems during combat.

In essence, AWE&C aircraft function as both early warning systems and battle managers, coordinating air battles, detecting incoming threats, and relaying real-time intelligence to command centres and interceptors.

Just based on these numbers, it is clear that an AWE&C aircraft is a far more valuable asset for any Air Force.

AWE&C aircraft are extremely rare, expensive, and valuable. They are the eyes and ears of the battlefield, operating far behind the lines, out of reach of the enemy, where they create a picture of the battlefield.

The SAAB Erieye AEW&C aircraft likely costs over US$100 million per aircraft. In comparison, a Rafale fighter could cost between US$80 and US$100 million per aircraft.

More importantly, a Saab Erieye typically has six crew members and no ejection seats/parachutes like Rafale or other fighter jets. If an Erieye was shot down, casualties on the Pakistani side could be much higher.

The sensitivity of Air Forces around the world to the AWE&C aircraft is also shown by the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) in the Ukraine war.

While exact numbers are hard to come by, according to estimates, Russia might have lost over 100 fighter jets since the start of the Ukraine War. However, Kyiv claims a number far in excess of 300 fighter jets.

However, what really pinched the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and forced them to recalibrate their strategy was the loss of two AWE&C aircraft in 2024.

Russia lost two A-50 in the grinding Ukraine War in January and February 2024, respectively. On both occasions, Russia blamed friendly fire; however, Ukraine took credit for the kills.

Following the losses, Russia reportedly grounded its remaining A-50 fleet to avoid further losses, according to British defense officials and Newsweek. This indicates a cautious response to the vulnerability of these high-value assets.

Russia also began using Su-30SM fighter jets to escort A-50s and deployed them farther from the frontline to avoid Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles.

A former PAF official said that they lost the AEW&C aircraft in the hangar, rather than acknowledging that it was lost in combat. However, if the statement of the IAF chief is accurate, then the PAF might have a bigger worry at hand.

The IAF Chief credited the Russian S-400 SAM Air Defense system for the long-range kill. This might be the most troubling aspect for the PAF as their high-value assets like Saab Erieye are not safe anywhere in Pakistan; in the air, they can be tracked and targeted by the S-400 system, and on the ground, they are vulnerable to BrahMos strikes.

From India’s Western borders, most of Pakistan is within a distance of 400 to 500 km. However, most of West Pakistan is a mountainous region (Balochistan in the Southwest, Waziristan in the Center, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the Northwest).

Most of Pakistan’s air assets, air bases, and air fields are situated in eastern Pakistan (Punjab and Sindh), which are within a distance of 300 to 400 km from India’s Western border, meaning they are all within the striking range of S-400.

India already operates three battalions of S-400 and will soon get two more. If all these five S-400 battalions are placed on India’s Western borders, then this could effectively turn the whole of Pakistan into a no-fly zone.