Throughout Donald Trump’s tumultuous career, his knack for theatrics and confidence in his dealmaking skills have remained constant. By hosting Vladimir Putin, Trump will have ample opportunity for drama while facing the ultimate challenge to his negotiating prowess.

On Friday in Alaska, Trump will discuss the Ukraine war with his Russian counterpart in their first solo summit since the 2018 Helsinki meeting, where Trump’s subdued demeanor drew lasting criticism.

According to US officials, Putin proposed the meeting. Despite Trump’s public frustration with Putin’s rejection of proposals to end the war, he agreed to the invitation.

Trump’s invitation to Putin, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court, effectively ends the West’s shunning of the Russian president since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, whose leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, has called the Alaska trip a “personal victory” for Putin.

Trump and his aides have quickly tried to play down the significance.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a radio interview that a meeting “is not a concession” and that Trump wants to “look at this guy across the table” and see if he is serious.

Trump, voicing uncharacteristic humility about his diplomacy, said it was a “feel-out meeting” that would not in itself lead to a deal on Ukraine.

He said he would speak immediately after the summit with Zelensky and other European leaders, who have all insisted that Ukraine not be excluded from talks on its fate.

“European leaders, in the past, had the experience that whoever talks to Donald Trump last makes the most important impression,” said Liana Fix, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

There is “a very strong urge in Donald Trump to be the one who brings peace to Ukraine — even for a fleeting moment of time, to have the picture of him agreeing with Vladimir Putin to a ceasefire,” she said.

Trump had vowed to end the war, which has killed tens of thousands, within 24 hours of returning to the White House. But he has found the path difficult — and his tactics have swung drastically.

Trump berated Zelensky during a heated on-camera meeting at the White House, where Vice President JD Vance accused Ukraine of ingratitude for US support, prompting Trump to interrupt briefly.

Ukraine quickly realized it had to stomach Trump’s approach and signed on to his ceasefire bid.

When Putin did not, Trump threatened sanctions on Russia, only to agree to meet Putin.

“The mere fact of holding such a summit will be a victory for Putin,” Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev said.

“Putin has not offered Trump anything significant, and Trump is already inviting him to Alaska,” he added, also calling the lack of new US sanctions by Trump an “unconditional victory” for Russia.

Trump has rejected criticism that he is soft, noting that he ramped up tariffs on India, a key buyer of Russian oil.

But Trump has also pushed for concessions from Zelensky, who has refused to surrender any land that Russia seized by force.

George Beebe, the former director of Russia analysis at the CIA who is now director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, which supports military restraint, said that Trump could begin to work out the outlines of a deal to end the war.

Russia could begrudgingly accept eventual European Union membership for Ukraine if it in turn, stays out of NATO, the transatlantic military alliance, Beebe said.

“As long as that relationship is limited to political and economic ties rather than military commitments, I think that’s something that they can live with,” Beebe said of Russia.

But he said that such a short-notice summit at the presidential level raised expectations that may not be met.

“Trump is tackling an issue that is fraught with political danger, and there’s absolutely no guarantee that this is going to be a success,” Beebe said.

India-US Tensions

Exporters are urgently seeking ways to counter the impact of US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff increase on India.

The move follows Trump’s threat to raise import tariffs from 25% to 50% if India continues purchasing Russian oil, aiming to cut off Moscow’s funding for its military actions in Ukraine.

Many experts warn that this could lead to significant job losses.

Economist Garima Kapoor from Elara Securities stated, “With a 50% tariff, Indian products will lose all competitive advantage.”As one of the world’s top crude oil importers, India faces a deadline of August 27 to secure alternative sources for roughly a third of its foreign oil supply

While New Delhi is not an export powerhouse, it shipped goods worth about $87 billion to the United States in 2024.

That 50 percent levy now threatens to upend low-margin, labour-intensive industries ranging from gems and jewellery to textiles and seafood.

The Global Trade Research Initiative estimates a potential 60 percent drop in US sales in 2025 in sectors such as garments.

Exporters say they are racing to fulfil orders before the deadline.

“Whatever we can ship before August 27, we are shipping,” said Vijay Kumar Agarwal, chairman of Creative Group. The Mumbai-based textile and garment exporter has a nearly 80 percent exposure to the US market.

But Agarwal warned that it is merely triage.

Shipping goods before the deadline “doesn’t solve” the problem, he said.

“If it doesn’t get resolved, there will be chaos,” he said, adding that he’s worried for the future of his 15,000 to 16,000 employees.

“It is a very gloomy situation… it will be an immense loss of business.”

Talks to resolve the matter hinge on geopolitics, far from the reach of business.

Trump is set to meet Vladimir Putin on Friday, the first face-to-face meeting between the two countries’ presidents since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

New Delhi, with longstanding ties with Moscow, is in a delicate situation.

Since Trump’s tariff threats, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, urging a “peaceful resolution” to the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US tariff impact is already being felt in India.

Businesses say fresh orders from some US buyers have begun drying up — threatening millions of dollars in future business and the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands in the world’s fifth biggest economy.

Among India’s biggest apparel makers with global manufacturing operations, some are looking to move their US orders elsewhere.

Top exporter Pearl Global Industries has told Indian media that some of its US customers asked that orders be produced in countries with lower duties, such as Vietnam or Bangladesh, where the company also has manufacturing facilities.

Major apparel maker Gokaldas Exports told Bloomberg it may boost production in Ethiopia and Kenya, which have a 10 percent tariff.

Moody’s recently warned that for India, the “much wider tariff gap” may “even reverse some of the gains made in recent years in attracting related investments”.

India’s gems and jewellery industry exported goods worth more than $10 billion last year and employs hundreds of thousands of people.

“Nothing is happening now, everything is at a standstill, new orders have been put on hold,” Ajesh Mehta from D. Navinchandra Exports told AFP.

“We expect up to 150,000 to 200,000 workers to be impacted.”

Gems and other expensive non-essential items are vulnerable.

“A 10 percent tariff was absorbable — 25 percent is not, let alone this 50 percent,” Mehta added.

“At the end of the day, we deal in luxury products. When the cost goes up beyond a point, customers will cut back.”

Seafood exporters, who have been told by some US buyers to hold shipments, are hoping for new customers.

“We are looking to diversify our markets,” says Alex Ninan, who is a partner at the Baby Marine Group.

“The United States is totally out right now. We will have to push our products to alternative markets, such as China, Japan… Russia is another market we are really looking into.”

Ninan, however, warns that it is far from simple.

“You can’t create a market all of a sudden,” he said.