The New Scramble for Africa:

Africa at the Center of Global Rivalry

In the 19th century, the “Scramble for Africa” saw European empires carve up the continent for their colonial ambitions, exploiting its resources and people with little regard for local sovereignty. More than a century later, Africa finds itself at the heart of another great competition. The players are different—today it is not just Europe, but also the United States, China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Gulf states. The tools are also different: loans, infrastructure projects, military aid, technology investments, and energy contracts. Yet the stakes remain the same: Africa’s vast natural resources, its strategic geography, and its burgeoning population of 1.4 billion people.

But the question confronting Africa today is whether it will remain a passive chessboard upon which great powers play their games—or whether it will finally emerge as the chess player, shaping the rules of engagement and leveraging its resources for its own development.

Africa’s Strategic Value

Africa’s significance to global powers is undeniable. It holds:

• Minerals and Resources: Africa has 30% of the world’s known mineral reserves, including 70% of cobalt (critical for electric vehicle batteries), 40% of gold, and vast supplies of platinum, manganese, and rare earth elements.

• Energy Wealth: Countries like Nigeria, Angola, and Mozambique are major oil and gas producers, while new finds in Senegal, Tanzania, and Namibia promise future energy powerhouses.

• Agriculture and Land: With 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, Africa is seen as key to future food security.

• Demographics: By 2050, Africa’s population is projected to double to 2.5 billion, making it the world’s youngest and fastest-growing market.

• Geopolitical Position: The Red Sea, Suez Canal, and Indian Ocean coasts make Africa critical for global shipping and military strategy.

With such assets, Africa is not a peripheral region—it is central to the future of global growth and competition.

China: The Infrastructure Powerhouse

No external player has reshaped Africa’s landscape as dramatically in the 21st century as China. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has poured over $150 billion into African infrastructure: highways, railways, ports, airports, power plants, and digital networks.

• Rail Projects: China built Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway and Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa–Djibouti railway, linking landlocked states to ports.

• Ports & Maritime Power: Chinese companies control or operate key ports in Djibouti, Tanzania, and Angola, bolstering both trade and military reach.

• Digital Silk Road: Huawei and ZTE dominate Africa’s telecom infrastructure, from 5G networks to data centers.

China presents itself as a partner offering “no-strings-attached” development. But critics argue this creates a dependency trap. Countries like Zambia and Angola have struggled with mounting debt to Chinese lenders, raising fears of “debt diplomacy.”

Yet African leaders often see China as a partner delivering tangible results quickly—something Western institutions, with their lengthy conditions and bureaucratic hurdles, have struggled to match.

The United States: Security and Strategic Competition

For much of the post-Cold War era, U.S. engagement in Africa focused on humanitarian aid, counterterrorism, and health programs (such as PEPFAR, which dramatically reduced HIV/AIDS deaths). However, the rise of China has pushed Washington to rethink its strategy.

• Military Presence: The U.S. runs AFRICOM, with key bases in Djibouti, Niger, and other countries, focused on counterterrorism operations against al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, and ISIS affiliates.

• Economic Competition: Washington launched initiatives like Prosper Africa and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), designed to rival China’s BRI with private-sector-led projects.

• Technology and Values: The U.S. emphasizes digital governance, cybersecurity, and democracy promotion as areas of cooperation with Africa.

Yet Washington’s engagement is often criticized as reactive and security-heavy, focusing more on preventing instability than enabling Africa’s economic rise.

Russia: Arms and Influence

Russia lacks China’s financial firepower and America’s technological appeal, but it plays another card: security partnerships.

• Wagner Group: Before its reorganization in 2023, Wagner provided mercenaries in countries like Mali, Central African Republic (CAR), and Sudan—offering protection to regimes in exchange for mining concessions.

• Arms Sales: Russia is Africa’s largest arms supplier, accounting for nearly 40% of the continent’s weapons imports.

• Diplomatic Engagement: Through the Russia-Africa Summit (2019, 2023), Moscow has sought to build influence by highlighting its anti-colonial legacy and presenting itself as a “friend of Africa” against Western dominance.

However, Russia’s involvement often deepens authoritarianism, militarization, and dependence, raising questions about whether it provides long-term benefits for Africa.

Europe: The Colonial Shadow and Green Transition

Europe remains a major investor and trade partner for Africa, but its relationship is complicated by its colonial history and its migration anxieties.

• Energy Partnerships: With the war in Ukraine cutting off Russian gas, Europe has turned to Africa as an energy partner—signing gas deals with Algeria, Nigeria, and Senegal.

• Green Minerals: Europe is eyeing Africa’s cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to power its renewable energy transition.

• Migration Deals: The EU often ties aid and investment to migration control, outsourcing border security to African states.

While Europe’s financial role is still large, African leaders increasingly resent being treated as a periphery to Europe’s crises, rather than equal partners in development.

Africa Between Giants—or as a Giant Itself?

The competing presence of the U.S., China, Russia, and Europe puts Africa in a powerful bargaining position. Rather than being trapped, African states have begun playing rivals against each other.

• Diversification of Partners: Countries like Ethiopia and Kenya borrow from China, trade with Europe, accept U.S. aid, and buy arms from Russia—maximizing flexibility.

• African Union (AU) Agency: The AU’s admission as a permanent member of the G20 in 2023 signaled Africa’s growing voice in global governance.

• Pan-African Projects: Initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to reduce dependence on external powers by boosting intra-African trade.

But challenges remain: political instability, corruption, debt, and weak institutions make it difficult for Africa to negotiate on equal terms with global giants.

The Way Forward: From Chessboard to Chess Player

For Africa to shift from being the prize in global competition to being a true geopolitical actor, three strategies are essential:

1. Leverage Competition: Instead of aligning exclusively with one partner, African states should continue to diversify, forcing external powers to compete on African terms.

2. Strengthen Regional Unity: Reviving institutions like the AU and AfCFTA is critical to negotiating collectively. A united bloc of 54 states carries far more weight than fragmented individual nations.

3. Invest in Governance and Innovation: Without strong institutions, Africa risks repeating the extractive dynamics of colonialism. Transparency, digital sovereignty, and youth-led innovation must be prioritized.

Conclusion: Africa’s Defining Choice

The new scramble for Africa is not a simple replay of the old colonial carve-up. Today, Africa has agency, leverage, and opportunity. The continent’s minerals, energy, people, and markets are indispensable to the 21st century. The great powers know this—hence their rush to secure influence.

But whether Africa emerges as the chessboard or the chess player depends on its leaders, its institutions, and its people. If Africa uses global competition wisely, it can secure the infrastructure, technology, and investment it needs—on its own terms. If not, it risks another century of dependency, its immense wealth flowing outward while its people remain on the margins.

In this new era of multipolarity, Africa holds the pieces. The world is waiting to see how it plays the game.