The geopolitics of technology, particularly the race for semiconductor supremacy and control over critical digital infrastructure, is profoundly affecting alliances and rivalries in East Asia.

This competition, primarily between the United States and China, is forcing nations in the region to make difficult choices about their economic and security partnerships. It's leading to the formation of new, tech-focused alliances while also intensifying existing rivalries.

The Race for Semiconductor Supremacy

The semiconductor race is a major driver of geopolitical tension because semiconductors are the foundation of nearly all modern technology, from smartphones to advanced military systems. East Asia is at the center of this competition, as it is home to the world's most critical semiconductor manufacturers.

• U.S. Strategy: The U.S. is seeking to maintain its technological leadership by imposing export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment and software to limit China's progress. Initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act are designed to incentivize domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Washington has also proposed a "Chip 4 Alliance" with key players in East Asia—Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—to create a more resilient, U.S.-aligned semiconductor supply chain.

• China's Strategy: China's primary goal is to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency to overcome foreign dependence and circumvent U.S. restrictions. Beijing is investing billions in its domestic semiconductor industry to advance its "Made in China 2025" plan. While China still lags in advanced chip manufacturing, its focus on indigenous innovation and its massive domestic market give it significant leverage.

• East Asian Nations' Dilemma: Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are caught in the middle. While they have strong economic ties with China, they also rely on U.S. technology and security partnerships. Taiwan, in particular, is a critical flashpoint, as its control of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), which produces 90% of the world's most advanced chips, makes it a central piece of this geopolitical puzzle. The potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait is viewed as a significant threat to global economic stability.

Control over Critical Digital Infrastructure

The competition for digital infrastructure, such as 5G networks, undersea cables, and data centers, is a second front in this technological rivalry. This is a battle for influence over the very plumbing of the internet and modern communication.

• China's Digital Silk Road: As an extension of its Belt and Road Initiative, China's Digital Silk Road provides funding and technology for digital infrastructure projects across East and Southeast Asia. Chinese companies like Huawei have been key players in building 5G networks and other digital systems, often offering more affordable solutions. This expands China's technological and political influence in the region, but also raises cybersecurity and surveillance concerns for the U.S. and its allies.

• U.S. and Allied Response: The U.S. and its partners are countering China's efforts by offering their own alternatives. The U.S. has led efforts to persuade allies to ban Huawei from their 5G networks. Initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) are designed to fund "high-standard, transparent" digital infrastructure projects that adhere to Western norms and standards. This provides a clear alternative for countries seeking to avoid a dependence on Chinese technology.

Impact on Alliances and Rivalries

This geopolitical competition is solidifying existing alliances while also creating new frictions.

• Strengthening U.S. Alliances: The technological rivalry has prompted the U.S. to deepen its alliances with East Asian partners. The Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia, India) and AUKUS (Australia, U.K., U.S.) are examples of security-focused alliances that increasingly have a technology component, including cooperation on advanced military technologies.

• Growing Regional Division: The rivalry is forcing countries in Southeast Asia to walk a fine line. Nations like Vietnam and Malaysia are benefiting from foreign investment as companies "de-risk" their supply chains away from China, but they must also balance this with their deep economic ties to Beijing. This delicate balancing act creates a fragmented landscape where countries are increasingly forced to choose sides, undermining regional cohesion.