China's growing military presence in Africa, notably its base in Djibouti, is directly affecting U.S. and European influence by challenging their long-standing strategic dominance and creating a new paradigm of great power competition on the continent.

This presence is not just about military hardware; it's a strategic extension of China's economic and political interests, which forces the U.S. and Europe to re-evaluate their engagement with Africa and compete in new ways.

The Geopolitical Shift: A Direct Challenge to Western Dominance

For decades, the U.S. and European nations have maintained a significant military footprint in Africa, largely focused on counter-terrorism, peacekeeping, and securing maritime trade routes. France, for example, has a deep-rooted military history in its former colonies, while the U.S. has a network of drone bases and a command structure (AFRICOM) dedicated to the continent. This Western presence was, until recently, largely uncontested. China’s establishment of a naval base in Djibouti in 2017 fundamentally altered this dynamic.

Djibouti is a strategic chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea, and its port provides crucial access to the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean. The U.S., France, Italy, and Japan all have bases there, making it a microcosm of global military competition. China's presence in this location allows it to:

• Protect its vast economic interests: The BRI has led to billions of dollars in Chinese investments across Africa, from railways to ports. A military presence ensures the security of these assets and the routes for transporting raw materials back to China.

• Enhance its power projection: The Djibouti base, which includes a pier capable of docking large naval vessels, is a critical logistical hub. It allows the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to conduct longer-range operations, including anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden and naval exercises.

• Establish a foothold for future expansion: The base serves as a template for potential future military facilities in other strategically important African nations. This possibility, particularly the rumored interest in a naval base on the Atlantic coast in Equatorial Guinea, is a major source of concern for the U.S. and Europe.

This growing Chinese military footprint directly challenges the U.S. and Europe's role as the primary security partners on the continent. African nations now have more options, which allows them to leverage the competition between major powers to their advantage. This also means that Western influence is no longer the sole source of military training, equipment, and security assistance.

The Shift from Hard to Soft Power

China's military presence is not just a standalone effort; it's a key component of a broader strategy that integrates hard power with soft power and economic influence. While the U.S. and Europe have traditionally offered aid with conditionalities (e.g., human rights, democratic governance), China offers a different model based on non-interference and mutual economic benefit. This model is very attractive to many African leaders.

• Military Diplomacy and Training: China has significantly increased its military-to-military exchanges, providing training to thousands of African officers. This builds rapport and long-term relationships with a new generation of African military leaders. It also offers a different ideology of military governance, one that prioritizes regime stability over democratic reform.

• Arms Sales: China has become a major supplier of military equipment to African nations, often at competitive prices and with flexible financing arrangements. This not only generates revenue but also makes these countries dependent on China for spare parts and maintenance, further cementing their relationship. The shift from Western to Chinese equipment is a tangible sign of eroding Western influence.

• Integrated Security: Chinese security firms, often with links to the government, are increasingly active in protecting Chinese nationals and projects across the continent. This integrated approach, where economic and security interests are intertwined, contrasts with the more separate roles of Western military and private sectors.

The U.S. and European response has been to re-engage with Africa on both economic and security fronts. The U.S. has ramped up its diplomatic efforts and proposed the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) as a rival to the BRI. Similarly, the European Union has launched its Global Gateway strategy. These initiatives aim to provide African nations with an alternative to Chinese financing, but they are often criticized for being slow to materialize compared to China’s swift project delivery.

Competition and Collaboration in a New Era

The rise of Chinese military influence has created a complex dynamic of both competition and, in some cases, limited collaboration. While the U.S. and its allies view China as a strategic competitor, they also have shared interests, such as combating piracy and regional terrorism.

• Information Sharing and Deconfliction: In Djibouti, the proximity of multiple foreign military bases, including those of the U.S. and China, necessitates some level of coordination to avoid accidents and deconflict operations. This pragmatic engagement on the ground exists even as strategic competition intensifies at the highest levels.

• Strategic Sidelining: As China’s influence grows, the U.S. and Europe risk being relegated to a secondary role in key areas of African security. For example, if China secures a base on Africa’s Atlantic coast, it would extend its power projection into a region where the U.S. and Europe have long been dominant. This would have profound implications for strategic naval positioning and control of global maritime trade routes.

The ultimate effect of China’s growing military presence is the erosion of the traditional Western-centric security architecture in Africa. It compels the U.S. and Europe to move beyond their historical approaches and offer a more compelling, and less condition-heavy, alternative to African nations. The continent is no longer a peripheral player in global affairs; it is an increasingly vital arena for great power competition, and China's military expansion is at the heart of this transformation.