Africa at the Crossroads of the Next Industrial Revolution

The global transition to electric mobility and renewable energy has created a new resource race—one centered not on oil, but on critical minerals and rare earths. Africa, home to some of the world’s largest reserves of rare earth elements (REEs), lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, now stands at a decisive moment.

If the 20th century was defined by Africa’s role as a raw material exporter, the 21st century offers a chance to become a refining and manufacturing hub in the electric vehicle (EV) and clean energy economy. The question is no longer whether Africa has resources—but whether it can control, refine, and benefit from them in ways that build real industrial power.

2. Africa’s Rare Earth Landscape: The Untapped Advantage

Rare earth deposits are scattered across Africa, often in regions already linked to mining infrastructure. Some of the most promising include:

• South Africa – Rich in monazite and bastnäsite, particularly in the Western Cape and Northern provinces; hosts advanced metallurgy expertise and power grid access.

• Tanzania – The Ngualla Project by Peak Resources is one of the highest-grade rare earth deposits globally.

• Malawi – The Kangankunde Deposit contains high concentrations of light rare earths like neodymium and praseodymium.

• Namibia – The Lofdal Project is known for heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium.

• Burundi and Madagascar – Hold significant potential for mixed rare earth oxides.

• Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – While more famous for cobalt, it also has promising rare earth zones.

Collectively, these resources position Africa as a strategic alternative to China, offering diversification to global supply chains and leverage for the continent’s industrial development.

3. The Missing Link: Refining and Processing

While mining capacity is expanding, Africa’s refining and separation capacity remains minimal. The continent exports most rare earths in raw or semi-processed form to China, losing up to 90% of the potential value in the process.

Refining is the most technically demanding stage—it requires:

• Advanced chemical engineering facilities.

• Skilled technicians and environmental safeguards.

• Stable electricity and water supply.

Yet, this is also the stage where the real value and strategic control are created. For example, one tonne of rare earth concentrate might sell for $3,000, while the refined oxides can reach $40,000–$100,000 per tonne depending on purity and element.

Without local refining, African nations remain price takers in a market they physically enable.

4. The Global Context: Why Africa Matters More Now

The rare earth and EV industries are undergoing strategic realignment. Western and Asian countries are actively seeking non-Chinese sources due to:

• Geopolitical tensions.

• Environmental concerns about China’s refining practices.

• The need for diversified, ethical, and sustainable supply chains.

This shift opens a unique window for Africa to position itself as a neutral, resource-rich, and rapidly industrializing region. Partnerships are already emerging:

• The U.S.-Africa Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) aims to support refining infrastructure and traceable supply chains.

• The EU’s Global Gateway initiative is investing in sustainable mining and processing in countries like Namibia and Zambia.

• China, while still dominant, is also investing in African refining and battery assembly plants to maintain influence through local collaboration.

5. Strategic Pathways for Africa’s Rare Earth Industrialization

(A) Develop Regional Refining Hubs

Rather than every country building its own facility, Africa could create regional refining corridors:

• Southern Africa (South Africa, Namibia, Malawi) – Heavy rare earth separation and magnet alloys.

• East Africa (Tanzania, Kenya) – Light rare earth oxides and EV component manufacturing.

• Central Africa (DRC, Zambia) – Integration of cobalt, nickel, and REE processing for battery cathode materials.

Such regional hubs would lower costs, attract investment, and strengthen intra-African supply chains.

(B) Build Technology Transfer Partnerships

African nations should insist on joint ventures and technology-sharing agreements, not just extraction licenses.
For example:

• Partner with Japanese or European magnet producers to establish pilot plants.

• Negotiate refinery training programs and university partnerships to develop local expertise.

• Encourage African Development Bank (AfDB) and BRICS New Development Bank funding for industrial-scale facilities.

(C) Create a Pan-African Rare Earths Alliance

Similar to OPEC, an “OREEC” (Organization of Rare Earth Exporting Countries) could coordinate policies on export pricing, environmental standards, and beneficiation requirements. This would enhance Africa’s collective bargaining power and prevent nations from undercutting one another in resource contracts.

6. Linking Rare Earths to EV and Battery Manufacturing

Rare earths are not valuable on their own—they become transformative when linked to domestic EV and battery production.

Africa already holds key ingredients for the full EV value chain:

• Lithium (Zimbabwe, Namibia)

• Cobalt and Copper (DRC, Zambia)

• Nickel and Manganese (South Africa, Madagascar)

• Graphite (Mozambique, Tanzania)

• Rare Earths (Tanzania, Malawi, Namibia)

By integrating these sectors, Africa could:

• Manufacture electric motors using local rare earth magnets.

• Produce battery cathodes and anodes using regional metals.

• Assemble low-cost EVs and motorcycles for African and Asian markets.

• Export EV components to Europe and Asia under preferential trade agreements (e.g., African Continental Free Trade Area, AfCFTA).

This would create tens of thousands of jobs and generate industrial GDP growth, far beyond traditional mining revenues.

7. Overcoming Challenges

(1) Infrastructure and Energy Gaps

Refining and EV manufacturing require reliable electricity, transport, and water systems.
Solutions include:

• Co-developing industrial parks with renewable energy sources.

• Utilizing rail and port corridors (e.g., Lobito Corridor, Tanzania–Zambia Railway).

• Leveraging regional integration projects under the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

(2) Environmental Safeguards

Refining rare earths produces radioactive and toxic byproducts. Without strong governance, it could replicate the pollution seen in parts of China. Africa must:

• Enforce strict environmental and waste standards.

• Invest in green refining technologies and waste recycling.

• Build public oversight mechanisms to prevent corruption and ecological harm.

(3) Governance and Industrial Policy

Many African nations still operate under extractive economic models, where resources are exported raw. Shifting to industrialization demands:

• Legislative reforms that mandate local beneficiation.

• Transparent contracts with foreign investors.

• National rare earth strategies integrated into energy, education, and innovation policies.

8. Strategic Forecast: Africa’s Position by 2035–2040

(1) 2025–2030: Foundation Phase

• Pilot refining plants operational in Namibia, Tanzania, and South Africa.

• AfCFTA enables cross-border trade in raw materials and intermediate goods.

• Western and Asian automakers increase African sourcing to reduce China dependence.

(2) 2030–2035: Integration Phase

• Regional refining hubs become commercially viable.

• Magnet and EV component industries emerge.

• African universities establish rare earth research centers.

• Local EV brands start production for domestic and export markets.

(3) 2035–2040: Industrial Maturity

• Africa becomes the third global pole in the rare earth and EV supply chain, alongside China and North America/Europe.

• Strong environmental, regulatory, and innovation frameworks sustain long-term growth.

• Africa begins exporting finished EV systems and high-value magnets, not just ores.

9. From Resource Wealth to Strategic Power

Rare earths give Africa a once-in-a-century opportunity—to move from being the engine room of others’ industries to becoming the driver of its own industrial destiny.

If Africa invests in refining, education, and technological partnerships today, it can control not just resources, but the future of mobility, energy, and innovation.
If it fails, it will once again watch global powers extract wealth while local communities remain poor.

The world’s green transition cannot succeed without Africa. But Africa’s true empowerment will come only when it owns the refineries, factories, and patents—not just the mines.