A New Multipolar Race for Critical Minerals

For nearly three decades, China has dominated the global rare earth supply chain — controlling over 70% of mining, 85% of refining, and more than 90% of permanent magnet production. This dominance grants Beijing enormous geopolitical leverage, not only in trade but in the technologies that define modern power — from electric vehicles (EVs) to advanced defense systems.

But the world is changing. As nations accelerate their energy transitions and seek technological sovereignty, a new global alignment is emerging. The Global South — comprising Asia, Africa, and Latin America — possesses the bulk of the planet’s critical minerals. Together, they can reshape global supply chains if they cooperate instead of competing in isolation.

Africa, with its vast reserves and strategic geography, can become the pivot in this new alliance — connecting South America’s mining expertise, Asia’s processing know-how, and its own industrial ambitions into a “South-South Rare Earth Corridor.”

1. The Geopolitical Reality: China’s Strength and the Global Imbalance

To understand why strategic alliances are essential, one must grasp the depth of China’s control:

• China hosts the world’s largest refining complex in Baotou, processing ores from domestic and foreign sources.

• It supplies over 90% of global NdFeB magnets, vital for electric motors and wind turbines.

• It has vertically integrated the entire chain — from mining to component manufacturing — giving it both price control and technological leadership.

• In 2010 and again in 2023, Beijing demonstrated its power by restricting REE exports, shaking global markets and exposing vulnerabilities in Western and Asian industries.

This centralization of critical supply undermines global resilience and gives China enormous diplomatic leverage — a tool it can use to reward compliance or punish rivals.

Thus, diversification is no longer an economic choice — it is a strategic necessity. Africa and the broader Global South must collaborate to build a second pole of industrial power.

2. South-South Cooperation: The Foundation of a New Mineral Order

Historically, the Global South has been divided by colonial trade systems, competing to export raw materials to the same northern markets. The rare earth opportunity presents a chance to reverse that dependency through coordinated alliances.

Key Pillars of South-South Collaboration:

1. Complementary Strengths

   • Africa: rich in deposits (monazite, bastnäsite, and ionic clays).

   • Latin America: advanced mining and refining experience (Brazil, Argentina, Chile).

   • South & Southeast Asia: technical expertise in metallurgy and magnet manufacturing (India, Vietnam, Malaysia).

   Together, these regions can create an alternative rare earth pipeline — from ore in Africa to refineries in Asia and component factories across the South.

2. Technology Exchange and Joint Ventures
   Africa can sign bilateral technology-sharing agreements with India, Brazil, and Malaysia for refining, separation, and alloy production. In return, it can provide guaranteed supply access and co-ownership in new processing zones.

3. Joint Research and Innovation Networks
   Establishing a Global South Rare Earth Innovation Forum (GS-REIF) could link universities, scientists, and industries to develop cleaner refining technologies, magnet recycling systems, and new material applications.

4. Unified Market Strategy
   Instead of competing on export prices, the Global South can negotiate collective pricing standards and sustainability certifications, much like OPEC coordinates oil policy. This ensures fairer value and market stability.

3. Strategic Partnerships: Models Africa Can Pursue

To break China’s monopoly, Africa must diversify its partnerships strategically, aligning with nations that offer technology, capital, and market access — without imposing neocolonial dependency.

A. India – The Technological Ally

India has made rare earth development a national priority through its Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL) and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). It needs more ore supply but has world-class refining capabilities.

• Africa can supply raw material to Indian refineries in exchange for training programs, joint R&D, and magnet manufacturing facilities established in Africa.

• A “Pan-African–Indian Critical Minerals Corridor” could connect East African ports (Dar es Salaam, Mombasa) with Indian industrial clusters (Chennai, Visakhapatnam).

B. Brazil – The Green Refining Partner

Brazil possesses both rare earth reserves and a strong environmental science community. It has pioneered cleaner refining methods using ionic liquid extraction.

• Africa could co-develop green refining parks with Brazil, exchanging geological data, technical expertise, and environmental monitoring systems.

• Brazil’s membership in BRICS further strengthens its role as a natural bridge between Africa and other emerging economies.

C. ASEAN Partners – The Magnet Manufacturers

Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand have emerging magnet industries. They are eager to diversify their rare earth supply away from China.

• Africa could form supply and co-production agreements with these nations, enabling joint magnet assembly plants in African industrial zones.

• Such partnerships could fast-track Africa’s entry into the EV and wind turbine supply chains.

D. Gulf States – The Capital Providers

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are investing billions in critical minerals and clean technology.

• Africa could attract sovereign wealth fund investments into refinery construction, logistics infrastructure, and industrial clusters.

• These states seek “green diversification” — Africa’s REE sector offers precisely that avenue.

E. Latin America – The Political Allies

Beyond technology, Africa and Latin America share a common political history of resource exploitation and economic marginalization. Joint diplomatic coordination through organizations like CELAC and the African Union could amplify their voice in setting global mineral standards.

4. Building the South-South Rare Earth Supply Chain

A complete cooperative framework would involve several integrated steps:

1. Resource Mapping & Knowledge Sharing
   Create a shared Global South Critical Mineral Database, mapping deposits, refining capacities, and trade routes. Transparency is essential to avoid internal competition.

2. Shared Infrastructure Investment
   Establish joint industrial corridors linking mining regions to coastal refining and export hubs. Example: A Pan-African Railway from Malawi’s Songwe Hill deposit to Tanzania’s port refineries.

3. Technology Parks and Research Institutes
   Build co-owned R&D centers in Africa focused on metallurgy, recycling, and magnet production — funded jointly by partner states.

4. Unified Branding: “South-Sourced, Green-Certified”
   Market materials under a shared certification label emphasizing ethical sourcing and environmental responsibility — a strong alternative to “Made in China.”

5. Financial Cooperation
   Set up a Global South Critical Minerals Investment Bank (GSCMIB) with initial funding from BRICS, AfDB, and Latin American development funds to finance refining and processing infrastructure.

5. Overcoming Challenges: Trust, Coordination, and Political Will

South-South cooperation has often struggled due to fragmentation and mistrust. Competing interests, political instability, and inconsistent regulation can easily derail alliances.

To prevent this, Africa and its partners must:

• Establish binding legal frameworks under AfCFTA and BRICS mechanisms.

• Adopt transparent project governance, ensuring joint oversight and equal benefit-sharing.

• Prioritize infrastructure diplomacy, using ports, railways, and digital networks as the glue of cooperation.

• Promote youth and academic exchange programs, nurturing a generation of engineers and policymakers fluent in transnational cooperation.

6. The Strategic Vision: Toward a Multipolar Rare Earth Order

If successfully executed, a Global South alliance could shift the balance of industrial power by 2035:

• Africa becomes the primary source of raw materials and clean refining.

• Asia (India and ASEAN) leads component and magnet manufacturing.

• Latin America and the Gulf provide finance and environmental innovation.

• Collectively, they capture over 40% of global market share — reducing Western dependence on China and elevating the Global South into the center of technological value creation.

This new multipolar system would not only balance supply chains but also redistribute industrial power, giving emerging economies real leverage in the green transition.

Africa as the Strategic Bridge of a New World Order

Africa’s rare earth resources are not merely a commodity; they are a diplomatic asset capable of reshaping global power relations. By anchoring South-South cooperation, Africa can help end a century of extractive dependency and inaugurate an era of mutual industrial empowerment.

The next phase of globalization will not be led by one superpower, but by a network of rising nations — united by shared resources, shared risks, and shared aspirations for sovereignty.

If Africa leads this alliance with vision, fairness, and innovation, it can transform from a supplier to the strategic bridge of a multipolar industrial world — one that no longer revolves around dependency, but around partnership, technology, and trust.