European elites are engaged in a complex and delicate balancing act between maintaining their essential transatlantic alliance with the United States and managing their deep, multiple relationship with China.

This dynamic is driven by the realization that both the US-led security architecture and China's enormous economic weight are indispensable to European prosperity and security.

The core strategy for this balancing act involves the pursuit of "strategic autonomy" for Europe, coupled with a policy of "de-risking, not decoupling" from the Chinese economy.

The balance is inherently difficult due to the intensifying US-China strategic competition, which puts pressure on Europe to align more fully with Washington's confrontational approach. However, European interests do not fully converge with those of the US, necessitating a distinct, pragmatic, and coordinated European path.

The EU's China Framework: Partner, Competitor, Systemic Rival

The European Union's policy toward China is encapsulated in its 2019 framework, which views China simultaneously as a:

• Cooperation Partner: Essential for addressing global challenges such as climate change, pandemic prevention, and macroeconomic stability. The EU seeks to engage China on multilateral issues where shared interests exist.

• Economic Competitor: Acknowledging China's rapid technological advancement and its challenge to European industries, particularly in high-tech and green sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy. This dimension focuses on ensuring fair competition and reciprocity.

• Systemic Rival: Recognizing the fundamental differences in political and economic governance systems. This rivalry is seen in China's efforts to reshape the international order and its human rights record, which directly conflicts with European values.

This differentiated approach allows European elites to maintain selective engagement. They can cooperate on climate while simultaneously competing on trade and challenging Beijing on values and geopolitical alignment, particularly concerning China’s de-facto support for Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Managing Economic Interdependence: De-risking, Not Decoupling

A key factor distinguishing the European approach from the more aggressive US stance is the economic dependency on China. China remains a massive market for key European exports, especially the German automotive sector, and a vital source of essential inputs and manufactured goods. European elites have largely rejected a full-scale "decoupling" from the Chinese economy, arguing it would be economically devastating.

Instead, the EU is pursuing a policy of "de-risking." This strategy aims to reduce economic vulnerabilities and reliance on China in critical supply chains—such as critical raw materials and semiconductors—without ending trade entirely. Specific measures include:

• Diversification: Encouraging companies to broaden their sourcing and sales to other reliable partners in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere (e.g., ASEAN, India).

• Economic Security Tools: Developing new EU-level instruments to scrutinize foreign investments, combat coercive practices, and address state-subsidized "overcapacity" (as seen in the investigation into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies).

• Resilience Building: Investing in domestic production capacity and stockpiling critical goods, exemplified by the European Chips Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act.

This economic strategy serves a dual purpose: it protects European interests and moderates US pressure for complete alignment by demonstrating a non-confrontational, self-strengthening approach to managing dependencies.

The Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy

The balancing act is fundamentally about the pursuit of European Strategic Autonomy. While primarily aimed at increasing Europe's capacity to act independently in security and defense (especially post-Ukraine), it also profoundly shapes relations with both the US and China:

• Mitigating US Pressure: Strategic autonomy is, in part, a response to perceived US unpredictability (particularly under the Trump administration) and protectionism (e.g., the US Inflation Reduction Act). By building greater domestic capacity and a coherent EU foreign policy, European leaders aim to make Europe a more capable, rather than subordinate, partner to the US, thus gaining leverage to pursue its own interests with China.

• Preserving Sovereignty in China Policy: High-profile figures, notably French President Emmanuel Macron, have advocated for avoiding "vassalization" to either the US or China, emphasizing that Europe must not be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan simply as a consequence of US foreign policy. This public assertion of independence is a core component of the balancing strategy.

Mechanisms for Transatlantic and Internal Coordination

Despite the push for autonomy, European elites recognize the need to coordinate with the US to maximize their leverage against China, particularly on issues of concern to both sides (e.g., technology export controls, intellectual property theft, and economic coercion).

• EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC): This is the primary official mechanism for coordinating on key issues like supply chain security, export controls, and technological standards to prevent China from gaining an advantage. The TTC is an attempt to align policies and ensure the US does not act unilaterally in ways that harm European business interests.

• NATO and Security Alignment: The war in Ukraine has solidified the US security guarantee and deepened cooperation within NATO, strengthening the transatlantic security pillar. European states continue to align with the US on security matters related to Russia, which indirectly frames the China relationship, as Beijing’s support for Moscow is viewed as a systemic threat.

• Internal Divisions and Unity: The need for a united front across the 27 member states is a constant challenge. Countries like Hungary have cultivated closer ties with Beijing through investments like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), often resisting stronger EU-wide positions. However, the EU often employs its market power and institutional framework to harmonize national policies, notably through the development of the economic security tools mentioned above.

In summary, European elites are balancing the twin necessities of the US alliance and the China relationship by attempting to forge an independent path. This is achieved through a nuanced policy of selective engagement with Beijing (partner, competitor, rival) and a risk-mitigating economic approach (de-risking), all underpinned by the political and strategic objective of European Strategic Autonomy. The goal is to maximize cooperation with the US where interests align (e.g., technology standards) while reserving the right to diverge where vital economic interests or the pursuit of peace require an independent course.