In the 20th century, oil determined global power. In the 21st century, rare earth elements (REEs) have become the new geopolitical currency. Nations that control their production, refining, and trade can shape the world’s technological future — from defense and energy to digital infrastructure and clean technology.

Rare earths are the “DNA of modern civilization”, embedded in every critical system — jet fighters, electric vehicles, smartphones, and satellites. Control over them is now equivalent to control over innovation, defense, and economic competitiveness.

For Africa — home to vast, underdeveloped reserves — understanding this global race is vital. The continent stands at a crossroads: it can either become a pawn in the rare earth power game, or emerge as a strategic player, leveraging its resources for continental transformation and global influence.

1. The Rare Earth Power Map — China’s Dominance

Today, China is the undisputed superpower in rare earths. It accounts for roughly:

• 60–70% of global mining output,

• 85–90% of refining capacity, and

• Nearly all global magnet manufacturing.

This dominance is no accident — it’s the result of decades of deliberate policy, beginning in the 1980s when Deng Xiaoping declared, “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.”

Beijing’s strategy combined resource acquisition, low-cost refining, state subsidies, and strict export controls. By driving out competitors in the 1990s through cheap supply, China gained not only market control but also technological mastery — from refining processes to magnet design.

Today, China’s rare earth industry underpins its global industrial rise — fueling electric vehicle companies like BYD, military hardware producers, and green energy leaders.

2. The United States — Rebuilding a Lost Supply Chain

The U.S. once dominated rare earth mining and refining, particularly through the Mountain Pass mine in California. But environmental regulations, offshoring, and China’s cost advantage eroded this leadership.

Now, facing strategic vulnerability, Washington is working to rebuild a full domestic supply chain through:

• Defense Production Act investments to reopen mines and build refineries.

• Alliances with Canada, Australia, and Japan under the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP).

• Federal funding for magnet production and recycling initiatives.

The U.S. Department of Defense also classifies rare earths as “critical to national security”, meaning any disruption could weaken the country’s defense capabilities.

Still, without long-term refining capacity and global partnerships, the U.S. remains dependent on China for over 70% of processed rare earth imports — a major strategic concern.

3. The European Union — Green Strategy Meets Strategic Autonomy

Europe’s approach to rare earths is shaped by its climate goals and desire for strategic autonomy. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) aims to ensure that by 2030:

• At least 10% of raw materials are mined domestically.

• 40% are refined within Europe.

• 15% are recycled locally.

Projects in Sweden, Greenland, and Norway are now being explored to reduce dependency on China. The EU is also courting partnerships with resource-rich nations — including several in Africa — to develop sustainable mining and refining operations.

For Europe, access to rare earths is not just industrial policy; it’s geopolitical survival. Without them, the continent’s energy transition and defense capabilities would collapse.

4. Japan and South Korea — Lessons in Strategic Diversification

Japan learned the hard way how dangerous rare earth dependence can be. In 2010, a diplomatic dispute with China led to a temporary export ban that crippled Japan’s electronics industry. The shock forced Tokyo to diversify supply lines, investing in:

• Rare earth projects in Australia, Vietnam, and India.

• Recycling and alternative material research.

• Joint ventures with the U.S. and EU.

Today, Japan is a model for how policy foresight and international cooperation can reduce vulnerability.

South Korea has adopted a similar path, building rare earth stockpiles and securing access through strategic alliances. Both nations show that resource scarcity can be mitigated through innovation and diplomacy.

5. The Emerging Players — Australia, India, and Latin America

Australia is now one of China’s few real competitors in rare earth mining, led by companies like Lynas Rare Earths, which operates refineries in Malaysia and is building facilities in Texas.

India is integrating rare earths into its Make in India industrial strategy, focusing on magnet production for electric vehicles and defense.

Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina are leveraging their lithium and rare earth potential to attract green investments.

This growing multipolarity presents opportunities for Africa to align with diverse partners, avoiding overreliance on any single bloc.

6. Africa’s Strategic Position in the New Resource Order

Africa is sitting on some of the largest untapped reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals. Key examples include:

• Burundi (Gakara) – rich in bastnäsite and monazite.

• Tanzania (Ngualla Project) – high-grade neodymium and praseodymium.

• Malawi (Songwe Hill) – mixed light and heavy rare earths.

• South Africa (Steenkampskraal) – thorium-rich monazite, once one of the world’s top producers.

• Madagascar and Namibia – emerging exploration hotspots.

These reserves could make Africa the next major front in the rare earth geopolitical race.

However, the continent faces a familiar risk: exporting raw materials cheaply while importing expensive finished products. To break this pattern, Africa must position itself as a co-owner of the global rare earth supply chain, not a passive supplier.

7. Lessons from Global Powers — What Africa Must Learn

a. Long-term Vision and Policy Discipline (China’s Model):
Africa needs coordinated industrial policies that connect mining, refining, and manufacturing. China’s 40-year rare earth strategy shows the power of planning across generations.

b. Strategic Alliances and Technological Exchange (Japan & U.S. Model):
Africa should partner with multiple nations — the U.S., EU, India, and Japan — ensuring technology transfer, not dependency.

c. Environmental and Ethical Advantage (Europe’s Model):
By adopting the world’s highest environmental and labor standards, Africa can brand its rare earths as “Green and Ethical Minerals”, commanding premium prices.

d. Regional Cooperation (ASEAN and EU Models):
African nations must cooperate through the African Union and AfCFTA to harmonize mining laws, share refining capacity, and negotiate as one bloc.

8. The New Geopolitical Currency — Refining and Technology Ownership

Control of mining is valuable, but control of refining and magnet manufacturing is decisive. Nations that own these steps determine the pace of global innovation.

This is why China guards its refining technology as state secrets, and why Western nations are racing to rebuild processing capacity. For Africa, the lesson is clear:
Refining capacity equals geopolitical leverage.

An Africa with its own refining hubs can dictate trade terms, attract investment on its own conditions, and even form rare earth export cartels, similar to OPEC in the oil era.

9. The Role of Global Conflict and Sanctions

The Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the South China Sea have heightened awareness that supply chains can be weaponized. Sanctions, export bans, or conflicts could suddenly restrict access to rare earths.

Africa’s neutrality and resource wealth position it as a geopolitical stabilizer. If managed wisely, Africa could emerge as a non-aligned resource superpower, supplying all sides while maintaining independence — much like Switzerland does in finance.

10. Toward an African Geostrategic Doctrine

Africa needs a coherent doctrine — a Pan-African Rare Earth Strategy — focused on:

• Ownership: Domestic control over mines, refineries, and IP.

• Value Addition: Local manufacturing of magnets, batteries, and EV components.

• Alliances: Strategic cooperation with diverse partners, balancing East and West.

• Sustainability: Global leadership in ethical and green mining.

• Defense & Diplomacy: Leveraging resources for geopolitical security and influence.

Such a doctrine would transform Africa from a subject of resource geopolitics into an architect of it.

11. From Resource Pawn to Power Broker

Rare earths have redrawn the map of global power. Whoever controls their supply chains controls the future of energy, defense, and digital technology.

Africa holds the potential to become a third pillar in this new order — alongside China and the West. But only if it refuses to repeat the old cycle of extraction without transformation.

By mastering refining, asserting sovereignty, and building alliances based on technology and trust, Africa can move from the margins of history to its very center.

The new world will be powered by magnets, batteries, and microchips — all born from rare earths. And if Africa acts with unity and foresight, it can ensure that the age of green technology is also the age of African resurgence.