While defense exports have traditionally been a bipolar contest between the US and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union), in the last decade, many new players have entered the market to claim a greater share of the pie.

“Becoming one of the top four powerhouses in the defence industry is by no means an impossible dream,” Lee declared, outlining a strategy centered on self-reliance and technological sovereignty.

“We will establish technological sovereignty by focusing investment on the development of technologies, parts, and materials that must be secured independently, such as special semiconductors in the defence sector.”

Lee said that South Korea will share not only its defense platforms but also “the technology and experience of building an industrial foundation” with its overseas defense partners.

Arms are one of the fastest-growing exports of South Korea.

South Korean Arms Exports

South Korea’s defense exports surged dramatically starting in 2021, positioning the country as a top-10 global arms exporter by volume, according to the SIPRI data.

Between 2018 and 2020, South Korean arms exports averaged around USD 2-3 billion. In 2021, the country’s arms exports crossed USD 7 billion, registering over 150% growth.

In 2022, South Korean defense exports touched an all-time high of USD 17.3 billion. In February that year, Russia invaded Ukraine, which indirectly boosted South Korean defense exports.

Firstly, due to the war, Russian defense exports plummeted. At the same time, the return of conventional war to Europe after many decades boosted the demand for weapons and ammunition from new sources.

The record South Korean defense exports in 2022 were fueled by deals like Poland’s US$14.5 billion purchase of tanks and howitzers.

In subsequent years, South Korean defense exports declined slightly but remain around US$10 billion annually.

According to SIPRI, between 2020 and 2024, South Korea was the 10th-largest defense exporter worldwide, accounting for 2.2% of global arms exports.

There were nine countries ahead of South Korea: Spain (3% share in global arms exports), Israel (3.1%), the UK (3.6%), Italy (4.8%), Germany (5.6%), China (5.9%), Russia (7.8%), France (9.6%), and the US (43%), leading the chart with a good distance.

Can South Korea Break Into The World’s Top 4?

To be in the top four, South Korea will have to beat China. For that, South Korea must nearly triple its share in global arms exports from the current 2.2% to 6%. At the same time, China’s defense exports should stay stagnant.

And both these scenarios look highly unlikely.

Firstly, for perspective, SIPRI data show that South Korea had a 2.1% share of the global arms export market between 2015 and 2019. This increased to 2.2% between 2020 and 2024, registering a mere 4.9% growth.

Now, to be in the top four, South Korea must increase its share of global arms exports by nearly 300% within the next five years.

Furthermore, South Korea must achieve this feat without having a significant share in the global aerospace industry. While the South Korean light combat aircraft, KAI T-50 Golden Eagle (and its variants such as TA-50 and FA-50), has won multiple international deals, South Korea’s indigenous 4.5-generation multirole fighter jet, KF-21 Boramae, is still struggling to secure any significant export orders.

Furthermore, the South Korean aerospace industry has not made its presence felt in military transport aircraft, AWE&C, helicopters, or combat drones.

In fact, Turkey, which is placed behind South Korea in defense exports, has taken an insurmountable lead in combat drones.

Turkey currently enjoys 65% of the global combat drone market, followed by China. This shows that when it comes to military drones, South Korea is facing a challenge not only from countries ahead of it, but also from countries that are placed behind South Korea.

Meanwhile, Turkey, currently ranked 11th, is also trying to break into the world’s top 10 defense exporters, underscoring the need for South Korea to monitor even countries that are behind it.

Furthermore, Turkey is developing its own fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the KAAN, which has already won international orders from countries such as Indonesia. At the same time, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have expressed interest in it.

Meanwhile, China is years, if not decades, ahead of South Korea in aircraft technology.

China has already developed two fifth-generation aircraft, the J-20 and J-35A, and is testing two sixth-generation aircraft, tentatively named the J-36 and J-50. China has also developed indigenous AEW&C aircraft, the KJ-3000, which is based on the Y-20B transport aircraft, as well as other military transport aircraft.

China has also won international orders for its J-10C and JF-17 Thunder (jointly developed with Pakistan). In 2025, Azerbaijan placed an order for 40 JF-17 Thunder fighter jets for USD 4.6 billion.

In another significant development, Indonesia selected J-10 fighter jets earlier this month. However, it is unclear whether Indonesia will buy these Chinese fighter jets instead of the additional batch of Rafale jets, or whether Jakarta plans to purchase both the Rafale and the J-10CE.

Additionally, Bangladesh has reportedly shortlisted the J-10CE to buy 20 new fighter jets in a deal worth USD 2.2 billion.

Reportedly, Pakistan has also placed or could place an order for the Chinese stealth fighter jet, the J-35A; however, no official confirmation has been made so far.

China is also ahead of South Korea in combat drones. China enjoys nearly a 22% share of the global combat drone market and has developed or is testing multiple stealth drones, including the GJ-11 Sharp Sword, FH-97 (loyal wingman), and GJ-X.

Compared to China, the South Korean aerospace industry is still in its nascent stage.

South Korea has also achieved some success in exporting naval systems, such as the Jang Bogo-class (KSS-I/DSME 1400) diesel-electric submarines. It has also emerged as the world’s second-largest shipbuilder (after China), holding about 17% of global market share in 2024.

Its shipyards—dominated by the “Big Three” (HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, and Samsung Heavy Industries)—excel in high-value vessels like LNG carriers, container ships, and naval platforms.

In June 2024, Hanwha finalized the acquisition of Philly Shipyard, a prominent U.S. shipbuilder that has been responsible for delivering nearly half of the large Jones Act-compliant commercial vessels in the United States since 2000.

Further strengthening its presence in the US maritime defense sector, Hanwha Ocean announced in August 2024 that it had secured its first contract from the US Navy to overhaul a 40,000-ton logistics support ship.

However, in naval platforms, South Korea faces intense competition not only from China but also from countries such as Germany, Japan, and Spain.

Also, South Korea does not export ballistic missiles, nuclear tech, or cluster munitions internationally due to the MTCR and domestic policy.

Furthermore, China’s chokehold on the global supply of rare-earth magnets, crucial for manufacturing missiles, air defense systems, radars, and fighter aircraft, is another concern.

In the last two decades, South Korea has developed an advanced defense-industrial complex; its weapon systems are reliable and nearly 30 to 50% cheaper than their Western counterparts, and Seoul can certainly scale its production levels and break into new markets such as drones and fighter jets; however; despite all that, it is highly unlikely that it can surpass China in defense exports within next five years.

However, given the progress the South Korean defense industry is making, it could certainly rank among the top 7 arms-exporting countries.