The near-total impunity surrounding massacres in regions like Southern Kaduna, Borno, Plateau, Benue, and Taraba—areas frequently engulfed by communal conflicts, banditry, and insurgency—is the result of a profound breakdown of the rule of law, amplified by political manipulation, institutional weakness, and a deliberate absence of political will to enforce justice.

The failure to achieve arrests or convictions for widespread atrocities is not an accidental oversight but a systemic feature that allows violence to persist, as the perpetrators face no credible threat of consequence.

1. Institutional Failure and State Capacity Deficits

The primary reason for impunity is the weakness, under-resourcing, and compromised nature of the very institutions responsible for investigation and prosecution.

A. Collapse of the Investigation and Policing System

• Lack of Forensic Capability: The Nigerian Police Force (NPF) and other security agencies generally lack the training, equipment, and forensic capability required to conduct professional, evidence-based criminal investigations in remote, high-conflict areas. Crime scenes are rarely secured, evidence is contaminated or lost, and victim and witness testimonies are often the only, unreliable basis for prosecution. Without hard evidence, mass murder cases are effectively dead on arrival.

• Under-Resourcing and Deployment Gaps: The NPF is severely under-resourced and understaffed, especially in rural, volatile regions. Police presence is sparse or non-existent in many villages. When massacres occur, the response is often slow, allowing perpetrators ample time to escape across state or regional lines.

• Focus on Immediate Response: Security agencies often prioritize a kinetic (military) response to attacks—such as deploying troops to quell immediate fighting—over the crucial, long-term work of investigation and evidence gathering necessary for successful prosecution.

B. Weak Judicial System and Overburdened Courts

• Delay and Backlog: Nigeria’s judicial system is notoriously slow. Courts are severely overburdened with complex criminal and civil cases, leading to massive delays. Justice delayed is often justice denied, as evidence degrades, witnesses relocate, or fear retaliation.

• Witness Intimidation: In regions plagued by communal violence, witnesses and even investigators face extreme intimidation and threats of retaliation from powerful, well-armed militia groups or criminal networks. Without protection, few people are willing to risk their lives to testify, leading to the collapse of fragile cases.

• Lack of Victim Support: The system offers almost no protection or support for victims and their families, who are often displaced and left to fend for themselves, further diminishing their ability or will to pursue justice.

2. Political Interference and Complicity

The failure to prosecute is not merely technical; it is often the result of deliberate political choices and the influence of powerful elite interests.

A. The Use of "Impunity as Policy"

Political leaders often treat violence as a political problem to be managed, rather than a criminal issue to be prosecuted.

• Political Minimization: By consistently downplaying massacres as "communal clashes" or "banditry," officials avoid acknowledging the systematic, organized nature of the violence. This framing is a political strategy that lowers the urgency and deflects responsibility from the state to provide security or pursue rigorous justice.

• Elite Protection and Complicity: Perpetrators of organized violence, particularly in conflicts like the farmer-herder clashes in Plateau and Benue, are often connected to powerful ethnic or political elite interests. These influential patrons ensure that police investigations are stifled, evidence is suppressed, or that arrests are never made in the first place, fearing that a true investigation might expose their own complicity or financial backing of the groups.

B. The Ambiguity of Identity and Jurisdiction

• Inter-State Complexity: Many attacks occur near or across state lines, particularly in the Middle Belt (Benue, Taraba, Plateau). The lack of coordination between state police and security forces, coupled with political rivalries between state governors, allows perpetrators to easily flee from one jurisdiction to another, effectively escaping prosecution.

• Federal vs. State Power: Nigeria's security apparatus is highly centralized under the Federal Government. State Governors, despite bearing the primary responsibility for the welfare of their people, lack control over the police command structure in their own states. This disconnect means governors can publicly demand arrests without having the executive power to compel the necessary police action, creating a perpetual cycle of blame and inaction.

3. The Nature of the Conflicts

The specific characteristics of the violence further complicate legal responses.

A. The Criminal-Terror Nexus

In Borno and the Northwest, the lines between ideological terror (ISWAP/Boko Haram) and pure criminality (bandits) are blurred. While the military focuses on counter-terrorism operations, the criminal justice system is ill-equipped to handle the resulting complex cases.

• Mass Arrests vs. Evidence: Security forces sometimes engage in mass arrests in conflict zones, but these arrests often lack the individual evidence needed to secure convictions, as they are based on sweeping suspicion rather than specific evidence linking an individual to a specific crime. This practice clogs the legal system without securing justice for victims.

B. Cycle of Retaliation and Conflict Resolution

In communal violence—such as in Southern Kaduna or Plateau—the focus is often on achieving a fragile, temporary "peace accord" or reconciliation between communities, rather than demanding legal accountability for the massacres.

• Prioritizing Peace Over Justice: Political and traditional leaders frequently prioritize stopping the immediate violence, believing that pursuing criminal justice will only further inflame tensions and lead to new rounds of reprisal killings. This desire to prevent immediate bloodshed effectively creates a legal amnesty for previous acts of murder, fueling a culture of impunity where violence becomes the primary means of conflict resolution.

In conclusion, the failure to prosecute mass murderers in Northern and Central Nigeria is an interwoven failure of the entire state structure. Corruption starves the police and judiciary of capacity; political interests manipulate the violence for power; and the absence of political will ensures that accountability is sacrificed to preserve the status quo of impunity. This systemic failure guarantees that perpetrators feel empowered, victims feel abandoned, and the cycle of violence remains unbroken.