History is highly likely to judge the current era as the moment Nigeria failed in its most fundamental duty—the protection of its vulnerable citizens.

This assessment will be based on the extraordinary duration, scale, and intensity of the violence, coupled with the systemic failure of the government to arrest, prosecute, or deter the perpetrators, creating a pervasive culture of impunity.

The core function of any state, as defined by political science and international law, is to maintain the monopoly on the legitimate use of violence and deliver essential "political goods," paramount among them being security.

When historians look back at this period (roughly post-2009 to the present), they will find overwhelming evidence that the Nigerian state ceded this monopoly to non-state armed groups across vast territories.

1. The Historical Criteria for State Failure to Protect

Historians and political scientists assess a state's failure to protect its citizens based on several critical indicators, all of which are currently manifest in Northern Nigeria.

A. The Loss of the Monopoly on Violence

A state is considered to be failing its security mandate when it loses control over significant chunks of its territory to non-state actors. In Nigeria:

• Boko Haram/ISWAP: These groups established de facto governance structures in parts of the Northeast, collecting taxes and challenging the legitimacy of the state.

• Bandit Fiefdoms: In the Northwest, organized criminal gangs control forests, levy "protection money" (ransom), and disrupt key national sectors like agriculture and education with impunity. The fact that the population's primary interaction with authority is the payment of ransom to criminals, rather than the receipt of protection from the state, is the ultimate sign of this loss of control.

B. The Pervasive Culture of Impunity

The historical judgment will rest heavily on the complete failure of the justice system to hold perpetrators accountable for mass atrocities.

• Massacres Without Consequences: From the systematic slaughter of villagers in Southern Kaduna, Plateau, and Benue, to the mass abductions of schoolchildren and the destruction of hundreds of churches and mosques, very few perpetrators are ever arrested, prosecuted, or convicted.

• Institutional Silence: This failure is often rooted in political interests and corruption that shields powerful perpetrators and prevents thorough investigations. This pervasive impunity signals to armed groups that their actions carry no legal consequence, encouraging further violence and transforming localized conflict into a normalized means of resource negotiation or political coercion.

C. Failure to Deliver Essential Political Goods

A failing state cannot deliver basic services, known as "political goods," to its populace. Nigeria's crisis is characterized by the failure to deliver:

• Physical Security: The most immediate failure, as evidenced by the high civilian death tolls and over 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).

• Education and Healthcare: Mass school closures due to the threat of kidnapping, particularly in the North, have created a "lost generation," denying children the basic right to education.

• Rule of Law: The collapse of the judicial and policing systems leads citizens to rely on vigilante justice or armed groups for dispute resolution, further destabilizing the social contract.

2. The Vulnerability of the Victims

The historical lens will specifically highlight the government's failure to protect its most vulnerable demographics.

A. Targeted Attacks on Women and Children

The most horrific symbol of the state's failure is the mass, deliberate targeting of children and women.

• School Abductions: The recurring mass kidnappings of students—a tactic pioneered by Boko Haram and now perfected by bandits—demonstrates the state's inability to protect basic civilian infrastructure. The UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) has cited Nigeria for grave and systematic violations of women's and girls' rights amid ongoing mass abductions.

• Systematic Violence: Women and children make up approximately 80% of those requiring urgent humanitarian assistance in the affected regions. They are subjected to sexual violence, forced recruitment, and displacement, all with inadequate state protection or recourse.

B. The Betrayal of Displaced and Marginalized Communities

The millions of IDPs, many of whom are farmers, women, and children, have been abandoned to precarious, under-resourced camps or informal settlements. The displacement crisis not only threatens their survival but also their cultural continuity and economic viability, as they are prevented from returning to their ancestral homes and farmlands. This mass, preventable displacement of an already marginalized population is a powerful testament to the government’s abandonment.

3. The Duration and Indifference

The longevity of the crisis, lasting well over a decade, eliminates any defense that the crisis was a mere temporary shock.

A. Normalization of the Atrocity

The violence has become so frequent and generalized—affecting multiple states and manifesting as both ideological terror and organized crime—that it has been tragically normalized in both the national discourse and international attention. Historians will note the profound disconnect between the scale of the carnage and the muted, short-lived nature of the national and global response.

B. Political Priority vs. Human Cost

The era will be scrutinized for the Nigerian elite's decision to prioritize political stability and the accumulation of power over the immediate, urgent human cost. The consistent official policy of minimizing the crisis (labeling terror as banditry) protected the political elite from accountability but ultimately sentenced millions of citizens to perpetual insecurity.

In conclusion, the historical record will show that between the rise of Boko Haram and the explosion of the banditry crisis, the Nigerian state, despite its massive oil wealth and political centrality in Africa, lost its capacity and, critically, its political will to fulfill the most basic compact with its citizens: the guarantee of life.

This era will stand as a tragic and enduring example of a government failing its most vulnerable people in the face of organized, persistent, and unpunished violence.