The collapse of Sudan is not the fault of a single actor but is the result of a multi-layered, systemic failure where historical abuses, military ambition, and profound external exploitation converged.

Responsibility must be apportioned across four distinct groups: the generals who pulled the trigger, the failed political structure that allowed it, the regional actors who actively fueled the fire, and the international community that failed to prevent it.

The most direct, immediate, and morally culpable responsibility lies with the two generals, while the collapse's root cause lies with former dictator Omar al-Bashir, and its sustainability rests with the self-interested regional actors.

1. Primary Culpability: The Generals (SAF & RSF)

Generals Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti' (RSF) hold the greatest direct moral and legal responsibility. They were the ones who chose war over negotiation in April 2023, turning a political dispute into a national catastrophe.

• Zero-Sum Ambition: Their conflict was a zero-sum battle for total control over the state's security, economy, and political future. They repeatedly violated ceasefires, showing they prioritize military victory over the lives of civilians.

• War Crimes and Atrocities: Both factions are directly responsible for the systematic commission of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of ethnic cleansing. The SAF is responsible for indiscriminate aerial bombings, and the RSF is responsible for widespread sexual violence, targeted massacres (particularly of the Masalit people in Darfur), and the mass looting of civilian property.

• Weaponizing Starvation: They have deliberately obstructed humanitarian aid, looted supplies, and targeted infrastructure, using starvation as a method of warfare in Darfur and Kordofan. This choice to inflict maximum suffering makes their culpability undeniable.

2. The Structural Root Cause: The Al-Bashir Regime and the Failed Transition

The war was not inevitable in 2023, but the conditions for it were meticulously laid over three decades by the regime of Omar al-Bashir (1989–2019) and perpetuated by the flawed political transition that followed.

• Institutionalization of Rivalry: Al-Bashir purposefully created and fostered the dual military structure, using the paramilitary Janjaweed (which evolved into the RSF) as a counter-balance to the traditional SAF. This policy of outsourcing state violence ensured that no single security force could challenge his rule. He empowered Hemedti with gold-rich areas and an independent economic empire, setting the two generals on a direct collision course once he was removed.

• The Flawed Power-Sharing: The 2019 power-sharing agreement, brokered with the help of the international community, legitimized the two rival generals (Burhan and Hemedti) as co-rulers and gave them the power to veto civilian progress. It was a weak structure built on the core, unresolved issue of RSF integration, which guaranteed future conflict.

• The 2021 Coup: The joint coup by Burhan and Hemedti in October 2021 against the civilian government shattered the democratic hopes of the revolution. By eliminating the civilian check, they accelerated their own power struggle, which became the sole focus of the state.

3. The Enabler of Collapse: Regional and Foreign Interests

The scale and longevity of the war are the direct result of foreign intervention that provides the generals with the financial and military lifelines to ignore all diplomatic pressure. These actors are the enablers of the collapse.

• Fuelling the Proxy War: Regional states transformed the internal Sudanese conflict into a proxy battle. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is widely reported to be the main backer of the RSF, providing arms and financing to secure economic interests (gold) and geopolitical influence. Conversely, the SAF receives support from states like Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, who seek to secure the Nile River interests and access to the strategic Red Sea coast.

• Undermining Diplomacy: By providing continuous military supplies, these external patrons ensure that neither general faces the military or financial exhaustion that would compel a sincere negotiation. The cost of fighting is subsidized, allowing the war to drag on indefinitely, regardless of the humanitarian cost.

• Exploitation by Mercenaries: The involvement of the Russian-backed Wagner Group (now Africa Corps), primarily through its previous association with the RSF in gold smuggling, has further militarized the conflict and introduced sophisticated military expertise and hardware into the fray.

4. The Failure of Prevention: Africa’s Silence and Global Indifference

The African Union (AU) and the wider international community share responsibility for their failure to prevent the war and to stop the current collapse.

• Africa’s Paralysis: The AU and IGAD were paralyzed by internal divisions, a lack of financial and military capacity, and the political fear of setting an interventionist precedent against a sovereign state. They were slow to act decisively, allowing external actors to hijack the mediation process and dilute African leadership.

• Global Indifference: The West (US, EU) failed to treat the Sudanese political transition as a top priority. After the 2021 coup, their diplomatic pressure was intermittent, and their commitment to the civilian wing was inconsistent. Once the war broke out, the global community’s response was muted, overshadowed by Ukraine and Gaza. This strategic neglect sent a clear message to the generals and their foreign backers: the international cost of destroying Sudan would be minimal. The world failed to use its vast economic leverage against the external patrons of the warlords.

A Chain of Failure

The responsibility for Sudan's collapse is a chain of culpability:

1. Original Sin: The dictatorial political engineering of Omar al-Bashir.

2. Activating Agent: The generals who chose personal power and war over the nation's survival.

3. Sustaining Force: The regional and foreign interests who continue to fuel the conflict with arms and money.

4. Permitting Environment: The failed political transition and the global community's strategic indifference that allowed the crisis to metastasize unchecked.

Ultimately, the warlords are the butchers, but the foreign backers are the enablers, and the collective failure of African and global governance is the stage upon which this humanitarian tragedy continues to unfold.