Democratic Decline:

Is the U.S. Experiencing the Early Stages of Democratic Backsliding Seen in Other Countries?**

Short Answer:

Yes, many indicators suggest that the United States is experiencing early or mid-stage democratic backsliding, similar to patterns observed in countries like Hungary, Turkey, India, and Brazil.

However, the U.S. retains stronger institutional resilience than many nations where democracy eroded more rapidly.

1. What Is “Democratic Backsliding”?

Political scientists define democratic backsliding as:

• The gradual erosion of democratic norms

• Weakening of institutions meant to check executive power

• Decline in rule of law

• Politicization of security agencies or judiciary

• Restrictions on media or civil liberties

• Discrediting of electoral processes

• Growth of extreme polarization

• Rising acceptance of authoritarian behavior among political elites

Backsliding rarely happens suddenly. It happens slowly—by changing norms, bending laws, exploiting institutions, and testing public tolerance.

2. How Countries Typically Backslide

Historically, democratic erosion follows a recognizable pattern:

1. Delegitimizing opposition (portraying opponents as enemies, traitors, or threats)

2. Attacking independent institutions (courts, media, civil service)

3. Weakening accountability mechanisms

4. Expanding executive control

5. Politicizing law enforcement

6. Discrediting or manipulating elections

7. Consolidating power through public fear and polarization

This path has been observed in Hungary (Orbán), Turkey (Erdoğan), India (Modi), Russia (Putin), Venezuela (Chávez/Maduro), Poland (PiS) and others.

3. Is the U.S. Showing These Warning Signs?

Yes—many of the key early indicators are present.

A. Extreme Polarization

The United States is one of the most polarized democracies in the world.
Polarization becomes dangerous when:

• Opponents are viewed as existential enemies

• Citizens accept undemocratic actions if their side benefits

• Parties refuse to accept electoral outcomes

This is identical to pre-backsliding conditions seen in Turkey, Hungary, and Brazil.

B. Erosion of Norms

In recent years:

• Presidents have openly pressured the Department of Justice

• Administrations used executive orders to bypass Congress

• Congress has repeatedly failed to exercise oversight

• Government shutdowns and legislative paralysis have become normal

• Political actors challenge judicial decisions selectively

• Presidents of both parties have expanded emergency powers

Norm erosion is a classic sign of early democratic weakening.

C. Claims That Elections Are Illegitimate

A major red flag worldwide.

When political leaders claim elections are “rigged” without evidence, they:

• Undermine trust in democratic processes

• Prepare the public to reject future outcomes

• Justify extraordinary power grabs

Countries that took this path (Turkey, Venezuela, Russia, Brazil) eventually saw election manipulation and institutional capture.

D. Politicization of the Judiciary

Accusations of “weaponized justice” or “two-tier justice” undermine public trust.
At the same time:

• Efforts to pack or reshape courts

• Attempts to influence judicial outcomes

• Executive threats against prosecutors or judges

These moves signal strain on rule of law.

E. Normalization of Authoritarian Rhetoric

Democracies begin to decline when political figures:

• Praise strongmen

• Question the value of democratic constraints

• Threaten opponents with prosecutions

• Advocate “unitary executive” power

• Encourage political violence, even subtly

Both extremes in U.S. politics now tolerate rhetoric that once would have been disqualifying.

F. Declining Public Trust

Surveys show:

• Lowest trust in government in decades

• Low trust in media

• Declining faith in fairness of elections

• Younger generations skeptical of democracy as a system

A democracy cannot function when the public no longer believes its institutions deliver fairness.

4. Where the U.S. Is Not Like Typical Backsliding States

Despite red flags, the U.S. retains strengths many declining democracies lacked:

A. Decentralized power

States retain major autonomy. No national leader controls:

• State courts

• State police

• State budgets

• State electoral systems

This fragmentation slows authoritarian consolidation.

B. Strong civil society and independent media

While polarized, the U.S. still hosts:

• Independent investigative journalism

• Active watchdog groups

• Powerful NGOs

• A large academic sector

• Whistleblower protections

This creates resistance that autocrats in weaker democracies did not face.

C. Deep constitutional tradition

Despite challenges, the Constitution still constrains power more effectively than in many nations where democracy collapsed.

D. Highly contested elections

Even in conflict, elections remain competitive and close—signs that full authoritarianism is not yet entrenched.

5. What Stage Is the U.S. In?

Political scientists describe democratic decline in three stages:

1. Pre-erosion – Polarization rises, norms weaken

2. Partial backsliding – Institutions are politicized, trust declines

3. Full erosion – Judiciary captured, elections manipulated, opposition suppressed

The U.S. is widely considered to be in Stage 2: partial backsliding.

It is more advanced than early warning signs
—but not yet in full institutional collapse.

6. Key Differences from Other Countries

The U.S. differs from Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, and India in important ways:

• It has stronger checks and balances

• It has older democratic institutions

• It has a decentralized electoral infrastructure

• It has a culture of legal appeals and judicial review

• No single leader has fully consolidated control

However, the same patterns of polarization, norm erosion, elite impunity, judicial conflict, and electoral delegitimization strongly resemble the early phases of backsliding elsewhere.

           +++++++++++++++

Yes — the United States is experiencing many of the early and mid-stage signs of democratic backsliding that political scientists recognize from other nations.
However:

• The decline is not inevitable

• The country still has stronger guardrails than most

• Reforms and renewed civic engagement could stabilize democracy

The U.S. is at a crossroads:
Its institutions are under the greatest strain since the Civil Rights era, and the direction chosen in the next decade will determine whether it stabilizes or follows the path of other declining democracies.