The United States is facing multiple nuclear competitors and there may be a need for adjustments to be made to the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, according to Richard C. Johnson, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy (N-CWMD).

The US Department of Defense (DOD) is examining these changes in the security environment and the resulting steps that might have to be taken in view of China's and Russia's enhanced capabilities. Furthermore, the possible lack of a nuclear arms control agreement after February 2025 might warrant an even more focused approach.

Johnson made these comments while speaking on a panel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues event in Washington, D.C.

He further stated that the US nuclear modernization program of record might be insufficient going forward.

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Changes proposed by new report on US nuclear deterrence

Johnson stated that the DOD, in partnership with the National Nuclear Security Administration, has taken some steps to field capabilities to enhance the country’s nuclear deterrence.

One of these measures is the B61-13 gravity bomb, delivered by aircraft. Further, it is also ensuring the enhanced readiness of nuclear armed and powered Ohio-class submarines.

The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration would produce the B61-13, which is a modern variant of the B61.

The department submitted a report to Congress on November 15 that enlisted the country’s nuclear employment strategy, as revealed by Johnson.

The 491 report also accounts for the new challenges that the US faces because of the growth, modernization, and increasing diversity of potential adversaries' arsenals.

One of the report's key highlights is that the US plans to deter multiple adversaries simultaneously. It also states that the US requires the integration of non-nuclear capabilities, where feasible, to support the nuclear deterrence mission.

The report also asks for the US to focus on escalation management planning for responding to limited nuclear attacks or high-consequence, non-nuclear strategic attacks.

It also calls for the US to enable deeper consultation, coordination, and combined planning with allies and partners to strengthen extended deterrence commitments.

Grant Schneider, vice deputy director for strategic stability at the Joint Staff, who also spoke, said that another part of the report is the significant intellectual and analytical work required to identify the range of scenarios and strategic circumstances that the U.S. might face alongside its allies going into the 2030s.

"To be prepared for the 2030s, we have to modernize our nuclear forces, the nuclear command and control, and the associated infrastructure that will allow us to be flexible and adjust over time as new challenges arise, whether that's new threats or potential changes or delays in our modernization," Schneider said.

Growing threats to the US from adversaries

Earlier this year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) launched its Yearbook, which stated that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country on the globe.

The SIPRI Yearbook 2024 also stated that Russia is on top of the military stockpile list with 4,380 nukes. The number is not inclusive of the retired warheads which the countries are in the process of dismantling.

The report revealed that China’s arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, and it is expected to keep growing. It is an approximate 20% rise in a single year, which is massive.

It also mentioned that the Asian giant might be shifting its policies regarding nukes as it has likely also started deploying a few warheads on missiles during peacetime.

Moreover, North Korea – an ally of China and Russia – has assembled around 50 warheads, as per the SIPRI Yearbook. It added that the country has enough ‘fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads.’

Moreover, the recent use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by Russia to hit Ukraine for the first time has also raised eyebrows globally.

It’s claimed to be the first military use of ICBM, which can carry nuclear warheads, in an active war.

Russia had also recently changed its doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use. With this, Russia can now use high-potential weapons in instances when a non-nuclear state supported by nuclear power attacks its territory.

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