In late November, a coordinated offensive by two Syrian rebel factions — Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, and the Free Syrian Army, or FSA — resulted in the seizure of key areas in the Aleppo-Idlib region in northwest Syria. Notably, these areas include two critical transportation routes that connect Damascus with northern Syria. However, this development may have broader implications for the region.

The major power beyond the offensive is Turkey, who has long played a crucial role in northern Syria, leveraging its influence over various rebel groups, particularly the Free Syrian Army, to secure its interests. Ankara has established a zone of control in northern Syria, using proxy forces to ensure its strategic dominance. The FSA, directly supported by Turkey, has been a cornerstone of Ankara’s approach to the conflict. However, Turkey’s relationship with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham — a Sunni Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda — has been more complex. While tensions exist, there have been instances of cooperation between the two, particularly in military matters.

Turkey’s involvement in Syria is driven by two main concerns that it has struggled to address through diplomacy with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The first is the Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, specifically the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, often referred to as Rojava. Turkey views the Kurdish-led forces in this region as a direct threat due to their alleged links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, a group classified as a terrorist organization by Ankara. The second concern is the massive influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey, which has strained its economy and sparked domestic political tensions, particularly for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, amid Turkey's ongoing economic challenges.

The timing of the rebel offensive coincides with a shift in the regional balance of power. Several key developments in recent months have likely influenced Turkey’s decision to support the operation. One of the most significant is the weakening of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” particularly following Israeli actions that have targeted Iranian interests in the region. Since October 2023, Israel’s strikes against Iran’s proxies, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Israeli airstrikes on Iranian assets in Syria, have dealt a blow to Tehran’s regional influence.

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Meanwhile, Russia has been preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, which has diverted its attention and resources away from Syria. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has also contributed to a recalibration of Iran's regional strategy, particularly in Syria. With these shifting dynamics, Turkey likely saw an opportunity to strike, knowing that the regional powers — especially Iran and Russia — are distracted.

The rebel offensive represents a significant threat to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which, despite recent stabilization, still faces challenges from armed opposition groups. The renewed rebel push erodes the gains Assad has made over the past few years and further undermines Iran’s influence in Syria. Tehran has played a central role in propping up the Assad regime during the civil war, providing both military and economic support. However, with Iran’s proxies in Syria weakening and Israel’s military pressure increasing, the regime’s position is less secure than it was in previous years.

Interestingly, Assad has begun to distance himself from Iran in recent months, which has garnered attention from Arab countries. The shifting balance of power may present Assad with an opportunity to improve relations with the Arab world, provided he continues to distance himself from Tehran. This evolving dynamic could help Assad regain some legitimacy on the regional stage, as he moves away from Iran’s influence.

From Israel's perspective, the offensive in northern Syria further isolates Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah, although Israel remains wary of HTS. While HTS does not currently pose a direct threat to Israel, it could eventually lead to future challenges. Nevertheless, Israel’s primary concern remains the weakening of Iran’s presence in Syria, which serves its long-term strategic interests.

Offensive risks escalating tensions with Russian, Iran, U.S.

The rebel offensive also risks escalating tensions between Turkey and three key players: Russia, Iran and the United States. Syria holds immense strategic value for both Russia and Iran, which have invested heavily in maintaining Assad’s regime. For both countries, Syria represents a key part of their broader regional strategies. Russia and Iran established a military presence in Syria, and they view any shift in the balance of power as a threat to their influence.

For Iran, the situation is even more critical. The rebel advance threatens the land corridor it controls, which stretches from Iraq to Lebanon via Syria. This corridor is essential to Iran’s strategic objectives, allowing it to move fighters and supplies between its allies in the region. Any disruption to this route would severely impact Iran’s ability to project power in the Middle East and could spark a broader proxy war with Turkey.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has its own concerns. First, the offensive undermines the Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria, which have been supported by the U.S. in the fight against ISIS. Second, there is the possibility that Iraqi militias, backed by Iran, could become embroiled in the conflict, drawing Iraq further into the Syrian quagmire and presenting a direct challenge to U.S. interests in the region.

For Turkey, the ultimate goal of the offensive may be to kickstart a diplomatic process involving itself, Iran, and Russia that would allow it to advance its interests, particularly in resolving the refugee crisis. However, the likelihood of such a diplomatic breakthrough remains slim. The complexity of the situation, coupled with the involvement of multiple external actors, suggests that the military offensive could spiral out of control. What initially appears to be a calculated move by Turkey could, in fact, prove to be a tiger that no one, not even Turkey, can control.

The recent rebel offensive in northern Syria marks a pivotal moment in the Syrian Civil War. It has the potential to shift regional dynamics. The outcome of this escalation will depend on how Turkey, Russia, Iran and the United States navigate the evolving situation.

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