Syrian rebels have taken over control of key cities Aleppo and Hama and are now advancing on Homs -

As Syria’s fragmented opposition groups continue their offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s forces, Israel is closely monitoring the situation across its border.

On Friday, Israeli fighter jets attacked Hezbollah weapon-smuggling routes located near the Syrian-Lebanese border and announced a reinforcement of aerial and ground forces in the Golan Heights area due to the “internal conflict” in Syria.

“IDF troops are deployed along the border and the IDF is monitoring developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Israeli border and will thwart any threat against Israel,” the IDF said.

Assad has been a thorn in Israel’s eye for decades, allowing Iran to entrench itself across Syria and providing a smuggling route for weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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Israel has carried out thousands of airstrikes against weapons convoys as well as Hezbollah and other Iranian-affiliated militias in Syria since 2017. Hamas also operated from Syria during the Oct 7 war, firing rockets at Israel.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, warned Assad last month that he was “playing with fire” by allowing Syria to turn into a launching pad for attacks against Israel.

But the alternative to Assad is not necessarily good news for Israel. The offensive against the Syrian army is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a radical Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda.

Gideon Sa’ar, the foreign minister, made it clear who Israel supports: “Our allies in this case are the minorities. We need to look at the interests of the Kurdish minority, which is relatively friendly to Israel, and see what its desires are.”

Mr Sa’ar said it was hard to imagine Syria maintaining its current sovereignty but that the country would most likely be divided into federations made up of minorities, such as the Kurds and Druze.

But the foreign minister didn’t address the threat from radical Islamist groups like HTS, which has an estimated 30,000 fighters. They, along with other opposition groups, have taken over control of key cities like Aleppo and Hama and are now on their way to Homs.

If the Syrian army collapses, HTS and other groups could take control of southern Syria, posing a direct threat to Israel. This has caused Israel to warn opposition groups to stay away from the border, according to Channel 13.

On Friday, footage circulated on social media showing rebels raising their flag in the southern Syrian city of Daara, just 20km from the border with Israel.

A former senior Israeli official told The Telegraph that Israel is hoping that Assad will stay in power as he is a “devil who is easy to deter and control, mainly through Russia. And he will be held accountable for his actions”.

The official added that the weapons smuggled from Iran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon pose a major challenge for Israel “but the air force has total aerial superiority. We can do what we want as long as we co-ordinate with Russia”.

Credit: Telegram / North Liberated News Network

“The situation wouldn’t be better under Turkish-backed rebels,” the official added.

Dr. Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and an expert on Syria, warned that the fall of Mr Assad would be “a significant blow to Iran and its proxies”.

However, Dr Valensi added that the prospect of jihadists taking control of massive stockpiles of weapons, including chemical weapons, poses a “serious threat” to Israel.

 

The seizing of weapons is already well underway in numerous places across Syria, most recently in Daara.

The current Assad regime and Iran’s Axis of Resistance pose a more “severe strategic threat” to Israel than HTS and other rebel factions despite the uncertainty and risks posed by jihadist factions, according to Dr. Valensi.

The best outcome for Israel is a “weakened” and “revamped” Assad who could distance himself from the Iranian-led axis given its “inability to effectively assist him” during the current offensive.

But if Assad sticks with the Iranian-led axis, Dr Valensi suggested that this presents a “unique opportunity to push for regime change in Syria, potentially severing the axis”.

“It appears that Israel is still in a phase of evaluating the situation and determining the preferred course of action based on the evolving reality,” Dr Valensi said, adding that Israel recognises its limited ability to directly influence events at this stage.

As opposition groups advance through Syria with Damascus on the horizon, Mr Netanyahu has summoned his ministers this weekend to discuss developments in Syria.

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Is the 'writing on the wall' for Syria's Assad?

Syria's Bashar al-Assad hung on to power longer than many critics expected after launching a brutal opposition crackdown in March 2011, but his days may now really be numbered.

More than 13 years since Bashar al-Assad's security forces opened fire on protesters demanding democratic reforms, the Syrian president's grip on power may finally be weakening.

The 59-year-old son and heir of late dictator Hafez al-Assad has faced several setbacks during the long civil war triggered by his brutal crackdown in March 2011, but has so far managed to cling on to power.

Now, with his Lebanese ally Hezbollah reeling from an Israeli onslaught and his great power backer Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Assad is running short of friends on the battlefield.

Key cities in the north, including Aleppo and Hama have fallen to opposition fighters in just a matter of days.

And on Saturday the rebels said they are now encircling the capital where Assad has ruled since the death of his father in 2000.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has welcomed the rebel advance; Israel is reinforcing its forces in the occupied Golan; and Syria's southern neighbour Jordan is organising an evacuation of its citizens.

In a further sign of Assad's isolation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group, which controls much of northeast Syria, said it was ready to speak to its foes among the Turkish-backed rebels.

But international observers have repeatedly predicted the isolated former ophthalmologist's fall since the earliest months of the uprising, and they have repeatedly been incorrect.

The 2011 protests against Assad's rule began after a teenager was arrested for allegedly scrawling anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa.

- Stunning advance -

Now, for Assad's rule, the "writing is on the wall", Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. "Things are folding very quickly."

The rebel advance has been stunning.

After Aleppo and Hama fell in quick succession, the rebels and government forces were clashing Saturday near the major city of Homs.

Its capture would effectively cut Assad's capital off from his support base in the Alawite minority community in the coastal highlands.

"The Alawite minority has lost faith in Assad," Landis said. "There are serious questions about whether the Syrian army has any fight left."

But some caution is merited. After all, haven't world leaders underestimated Assad before?

As early as November 2011, Turkey's Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his "office is only temporary".

In October 2012, during a re-election campaign debate, US president Barack Obama also warned Assad that his "days are numbered".

The next month, Nabil Elaraby, then the head of the Arab League, declared "everyone knows that the regime in Syria will not remain for long".

The Syrian strongman defied them all, even as international lawyers drew up arrest warrants for war crimes and rights groups denounced Syria's use of chemical weapons and aerial bombardment in civilian areas.

As the civil war spiralled into overlapping regional conflicts -- government versus rebels, Turkey versus Kurdish fighters, US-backed militias against Islamic State group jihadists -- Assad retained his grip.

At first he was ostracised by many fellow Arab leaders, leaning instead on Iranian and Russian support, but as it became clear he was not leaving the stage diplomatic ties quietly resumed.

- Rebel victories -

And meanwhile, Russia and Iran had Assad's back. Lebanon's pro-Iran Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters, backed by Iranian advisers, to bolster Syrian government forces. Russia carried out air strikes.

But the speed of this week's rebel victories seems to suggest that without his powerful foreign friends, Assad's Syrian army is a hollow shell.

Russia has such little confidence in its ally that its embassy has acknowledged a "difficult military and political situation".

Before the recent ceasefire in its conflict with Israel, Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters and weapons and its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah.

It appears to be in no position to help, despite a Hezbollah source saying Saturday it had sent 2,000 fighters into Syria's Qusayr area "to defend its positions".

"The Assad government is in its most precarious position since the summer of 2012," Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP.

"There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus, either through battles or through a negotiated retreat.

"Ultimately, the Assad government's ability to survive will depend on the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as useful to their strategies in the region."

Heras said that Russia, which has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, would be loath to withdraw its military personnel and assets from the country, and Iran would be similarly reluctant to abandon Assad.

"If either or both of those allies decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered," Heras said.

The winners would be Assad's main regional opponents: Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkey's Erdogan, who both faced periods of intense domestic criticism only to emerge victorious in war.

Turkey-backed rebels are now spearheading the opposition advance on Homs, and Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have effectively neutralised Assad's most potent backer.

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