South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at the Presidential Office in Seoul.

As South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's relations with the opposition broke down this year, Western diplomats hoped the internal tensions would not affect his tough stance on China and North Korea that had won praise from Washington.

It didn't work.

A focus on a foreign policy seen as favourable to the West, limited attention on the political discord in South Korea, and a hesitation to be seen interfering in domestic matters, left its partners blindsided when Yoon briefly imposed martial law on Dec. 3, analysts and current and former diplomats said.

Yoon is now impeached and his powers suspended - and his political implosion likely heralds the return of the political left, which is less inclined to be as unabashedly supportive of the U.S. and Japan.

"His allies in Washington are concerned about one thing and one thing only - U.S. national security," said Karl Friedhoff of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. "When I raised the (domestic) issue, I was bluntly told on one occasion, 'Why does that matter?' And now we’re seeing why it matters."

The conservative Yoon earned wide praise in Western capitals for his signature policy goal of making South Korea a "global pivotal state" by promoting freedom, human rights and the rule of law. That policy saw Seoul weigh in more publicly on the side of Washington and NATO on hotspots such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine.

Philip Turner, who served as New Zealand's ambassador to Seoul until last year, said Yoon had showed autocratic tendencies particularly since the April parliamentary elections but it was seen as a typical political show of strength.

"Like Koreans themselves, including many of Yoon’s own supporters, I don’t think any diplomats thought that Yoon would go as far as to declare martial law with no basis – an inexcusable and inexplicable action from an ex-prosecutor who positioned himself as a champion of democracy," Turner said.

Yoon’s Global Pivotal State approach will not be mourned, given the hypocrisy with which it finally collapsed, but if Yoon is ousted by the Constitutional Court following his impeachment on Saturday, the West will hope the next president upholds much of its substance in practice, Turner said.

'DEEPLY SURPRISED'

Asked shortly after the martial law attempt whether it was an intelligence failure that Washington was caught unawares by a key ally, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said almost all U.S. interlocutors in South Korea, including in the president's office, were "deeply surprised" by Yoon's move.

On Wednesday, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan invoked the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump, when commenting on Yoon's move.

"Did not see that coming, yeah, but we had January 6, yeah," Sullivan said at an event. "So I think it's important for us to recognise that dramatic events happen even in highly advanced, consolidated democracies."

Henry Haggard, a former U.S. diplomat posted to the embassy in Seoul until June, disputed suggestions that Western countries ignored Yoon's hardline tendencies.

"Korea chose Yoon so his foibles were relevant to South Korea, not to us," he told Reuters. "We did not expect this from Yoon, whether he was nostalgic for Korea’s authoritarian past or not, because we assumed any president understood that almost no one in Korea sought to turn back the clock."

Yoon's declaration of martial law was the first time it was used since 1980 and for many South Koreans, the move brought back memories of right-wing rule by military strongmen, many of whom benefited from ties in Washington.

Elected in 2022, Yoon was widely welcomed in Washington and other Western capitals for his rhetoric defending global democracy and freedom.

Invited to make a rare address to the U.S. Congress last year, Yoon referenced freedom and democracy a combined 55 times. Earlier this year he hosted the latest "democracy summit", taking up a U.S.-led initiative.

But critics said that masked growing problems at home.

Yoon clashed with opposition lawmakers whom he has labelled as pro-North Korea and "anti-state forces", and press freedom organisations have criticised his heavy-handed approach to media coverage that he deemed negative.

PRESIDENCY DAMAGED

Yoon shocked the nation and the world late on Dec. 3 when he gave the military sweeping emergency powers to root out what he called "anti-state forces" and overcome obstructionist political opponents.

Martial law was in force for only six hours before Yoon backtracked in the face of bipartisan parliamentary opposition, but the damage to his presidency was done, and threatened to undermine South Korea's reputation as one of Asia's most vibrant democracies.

"I think that Yoon's outdated speeches and strong-arm tendencies were ignored because he was seen as aligning more closely with U.S. policies towards China and Western policies towards Russia," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at Kings' College London.

Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former White House official, said Washington was in a no-win position.

"If it says too much too soon, then it is seen as interventionist - either in supporting or opposing the government," he said. "If it says nothing, it is seen as being aloof and complacent."

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Battle erupts over South Korean court that will determine the fate of impeached Yoon

South Korea's Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who became the country's acting leader after President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment, speaks during a cabinet meeting at the government complex in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024.

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South Korea's acting leader to veto opposition-sponsored bills, deepening political strife

South Korea’s acting leader said Thursday he would veto a spate of contentious bills sponsored by the main opposition party, deepening political strife in the wake of parliament’s impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.

The ruling and opposition parties have been bickering over how much authority Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, the country's No. 2 official, has assumed since the opposition-controlled National Assembly last Saturday voted to suspend Yoon’s presidential powers over his short-lived Dec. 3 martial law. The Constitutional Court is to determine whether to formally dismiss the conservative Yoon as president or reinstate him.

Law enforcement authorities are also separately investigating whether Yoon's martial law enforcement amounted to rebellion. Yoon's defense minister, police chief and several other military commanders have already been arrested over the case. The main liberal opposition Democratic Party earlier considered impeaching Han as well for failing to stop Yoon's martial law declaration, but shelved the idea after he became acting leader.

Four of the six bills to be vetoed by Han were meant to introduce greater state financial assistance programs for the country’s agriculture and fisheries industries.

The most contentious bill is the Grain Management Act, which would require the government to buy surplus rice if the price drops too sharply to protect the country’s farming industry and promote its food sovereignty. Han said the bill would cause “immense” financial burdens on the government and eventually lead to further drops in rice prices.

Another controversial bill is the National Assembly Testimony Appraisal Act, which would give lawmakers more power to request people to attend parliament hearings and submit documents. Under the proposed legislation, individuals could no longer decline such requests by citing the protection of trade secrets or personal information.

The Democratic Party said the bill is necessary to determine the full details of Yoon’s martial law decree. But Han said the bill would likely infringe upon people’s privacy and that there are concerns among business leaders that key technology and company secrets could be leaked.

“I’m heavy-hearted because I’ve asked the National Assembly to discuss and act on the six bills again at a time when we desperately need cooperation among the government and the ruling and opposition parties,” Han said in televised comments at the start of a Cabinet Council meeting on Thursday. “But the government should make a responsible decision that prioritizes the principles of the Constitution and the future of our country.”

Democratic lawmaker and spokesperson Noh Jongmyun quickly criticized Han, warning him “not to cross a line,” adding, “We’ll immediately drag him down if he’s found to have collaborated with the rebellion.”

Observers earlier speculated the Democratic Party would reconsider impeaching Han if he vetoed the bills.

Another source of contention between the rival parties is whether Han has the right to appoint three vacant justices' seats at the Constitutional Court, as filling the vacancies could affect the court's decision on Yoon.

The martial law enactment lasted only six hours, but it caused huge political turmoil in South Korea and set off alarms from its neighbors and diplomatic partners. Yoon sent hundreds of troops to the National Assembly to block its vote on his decree. But many lawmakers managed to enter a parliament hall and unanimously voted it down, forcing Yoon's Cabinet to lift it.

Yoon has defended his decree as an act of governance, saying it was a warning to the Democratic Party, which he said has been using its parliamentary majority to obstruct his agenda.

Meeting with foreign media on Thursday, Seok Dong-hyeon, a lawyer and spokesperson for Yoon’s emerging legal team, echoed Yoon’s assertion that his short-lived power grab didn’t amount to a rebellion. Seok said Yoon did not intend to paralyze the parliament and denied claims the president ordered the military to arrest his political opponents, including Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung.

“Regarding the charges of rebellion, he never even thought about it, so he cannot possibly agree to such an accusation,” Seok said.

“What kind of a rebellion is announced through a press conference broadcast to citizens, media and the whole world, as if he was saying, ‘I’m now about to commit a rebellion?'" Seok said. "When the National Assembly followed the constitutional procedure to lift martial law after two or three hours, we abided by that procedure.”

He said Yoon may appear in the Constitutional Court to directly defend his case. When asked whether Yoon would continue to ignore law enforcement’s requests to question him and search his office, Seok declined to give a specific answer, saying these matters would be handled by Yoon’s legal team, which he said is nearly assembled.

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South Korean won hits 15-year low as hawkish Fed, domestic politics weigh

The South Korean won dropped to its weakest level in 15 years on Thursday, weighed down by risk-averse sentiment after the U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious stance on more interest rate cuts, as well as domestic political uncertainty.

The won was quoted at 1,449.9 per dollar in onshore trade as of 0234 GMT, after opening the session at 1,453.0 per dollar, 0.96% lower than the previous day and the weakest since March 16, 2009.

The U.S. central bank cut interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinged on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation.

Powell's hawkish stance pushed up the dollar and added to downward pressure on the won, which had already been weighed down by domestic political turmoil after impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived martial law attempt earlier this month.

Taking into account the negative economic impact of the Dec. 3 martial law order, the Bank of Korea flagged on Wednesday downside risks to its economic growth forecasts for this year and next year.

So far in December, the won has weakened 3.9% against the dollar, extending losses for a third consecutive month.

The won, down 11% year-to-date, is the worst performing emerging Asian currency of the year and is set to record its worst year since 2008.

Prior to market open, South Korea's finance minister said the government and the central bank would swiftly and boldly deploy measures to stabilise financial markets if volatility was seen as excessive.

"It is suspected that authorities are defending the 1,450 figure, making it difficult to short the won around the level," one local currency trader said.

To help ease pressure on the local currency, the country's financial regulator asked local banks on Thursday to flexibly manage foreign exchange transactions and loans.

In the stock market, the benchmark KOSPI dropped 2%, as foreigners sold local shares.

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