Poland’s Ministry of Defense announced on the morning of January 15 that it had scrambled its fighter jets in response to Russia’s massive missile assault on Ukraine. 

The attack prompted air-raid warnings across Ukraine due to a missile threat, with the majority of the projectiles heading westward. 

According to Ukrainian officials, the Russian offensive involved Kh-101 missiles launched from Tu-95MS bombers, as well as Kalibr missiles, which entered Ukraine via the Kherson Oblast from the Black Sea. 

In addition to these missile strikes, Russia deployed Kinzhal missiles, ballistic weapons, and 74 drones from various locations. 

Concerned that Russian missiles might breach its airspace, Poland heightened its military alert and deployed fighter jets on Jan 15. 

In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), the Polish Ministry of Defense announced, “In connection with the attack carried out by the Russian Federation, which aims to strike targets located, in particular, in western Ukraine, military aircraft have been scrambled in our airspace.” 

The Polish Operational Command subsequently mobilized all available resources, dispatching fighter jets and placing ground-based air defense systems and radar units on high alert.

The Ministry said that precautionary measures had been implemented to secure at-risk border areas.

“The Operational Command of the Armed Forces is monitoring the current situation, and its subordinate forces and resources remain in full readiness for immediate response,” the statement concluded.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack, saying that the primary target for Russia remained Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite the harsh winter conditions. 

This barrage followed a series of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian soil. Ukrainian forces launched attacks on approximately a dozen Russian regions in recent days. 

Ukraine’s air force used a combination of domestically produced drones and Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike roughly a dozen Russian regions. The Russian Defense Ministry has vowed retaliation, asserting that Ukraine’s attacks will not go unanswered. 

NATO’s Challenges Amid Ongoing War

Russian missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine’s western regions have occasionally breached the airspace of NATO member states such as Poland and Romania. 

For instance, in March 2024, a Russian cruise missile briefly entered Polish airspace for approximately 39 seconds during a large-scale assault on Ukraine. 

The Polish military refrained from intercepting the missile, citing concerns that doing so could endanger local civilians. Similarly, on December 29, 2023, another Russian missile violated Polish airspace amid a mass attack on Ukraine. 

Romania has also reported instances of drone fragments found within its territory, a recurring issue since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Alongside incidents in Poland and Romania, last year, an explosive-laden Shahed drone flew from Belarus into Latvia—an area neither adjacent to Ukraine nor along a direct route. 

The drone eventually crashed near Rezekne, a Latvian city located approximately 35 miles from the nearest stretch of the Belarusian border. 

Although these airspace incursions have not been classified as deliberate attacks on NATO, they have prompted heightened vigilance. Polish authorities, for instance, have scrambled aircraft multiple times in recent weeks to monitor and address the threat posed by Russia’s aerial operations. 

Some analysts suggest that Moscow may be testing the alliance’s response mechanisms and communication capabilities.

In late August 2024, Ukraine appealed to the European Union and NATO ministers, urging them to intercept Russian missiles and drones bound for NATO airspace over Ukraine. 

This request could be perceived as an invitation for NATO to engage directly in the conflict. Many member states, including the United States, have maintained a firm stance against becoming direct participants in the war.  

For Western governments, avoiding direct involvement in the conflict has been a critical policy since intelligence agencies first detected Russia’s preparations for its invasion. 

This is likely the primary reason NATO countries have yet to intercept drones or missiles approaching their airspace, choosing instead to focus on careful monitoring and issuing diplomatic condemnations.  

The risk of miscalculation or misunderstanding remains a major concern, particularly in the Black Sea region, where NATO and Russian forces operate in close proximity. 

Although these airspace violations by Russian drones and missiles are likely unintentional, they highlight the potential for escalation in an already volatile region. What remains unclear is how NATO will address future breaches as the alliance navigates the fine line between deterrence and direct confrontation. 

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