The risk of a large-scale war in Europe within the next five years is now real. Within approximately two years, Russia could pose “a credible threat” to one or more Nato countries if the Alliance does not strengthen its defences. That’s the view of Danish Defence Intelligence last week; one already been made by the German, Polish, and Lithuanian intelligence services.

The US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in his first remarks at the NATO HQ this week called on Europe to take the lead on their defence, emphasising that the US can no longer provide security guarantees for the continent.

It is clear that the threat to Europe is credible. But where does the continent stand today in response to such a high level of alert? How is it adjusting – or rather, coping – with the new Trump administration?

Traditionalist foreign policy observers often note that Trump is undermining the liberal world order, which the United States itself has established and sponsored for several decades. This is of course true, but they fail to consider the other side of the coin and conjunction of multiple factors in the trajectory of modern history.

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History, like a pendulum, swings between extremes. Just as globalisation once erased borders in pursuit of profit, it is now retreating – driven by economic nationalism, technological upheaval, and geopolitical fragmentation. But this contraction is temporary. The next phase of globalisation, shaped by AI and strategic realignments, is already taking form.

The post-Second World War order has been getting redundant and unfit for modern challenges for years and was not suddenly caused by Trump’s rhetoric or even Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, the economies are turning inward and the global power structures are shifting. Geopolitical fractures are widening. Trump’s blunt “America First” policy is merely a less polished version of America’s long-standing strategy. Europe, for its part, has found itself equally frustrated with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act as it is with Trump’s potential trade tariffs.

While Russia expanded its influence, Europe was paralysed by its own complacency – prioritising trade and oligarch wealth over security. Now, it faces economic stagnation and strategic irrelevance, trapped between two superpowers, the U.S. and China, with little agency of its own.

Amidst all this, Europe remains leaderless.

Germany faces political uncertainty as it struggles to form a new government, bracing for a looming recession and potential auto industry tariffs from a Trump administration. In France, Emmanuel Macron’s attempts at leadership are undercut by domestic turmoil and a weakened parliamentary majority. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni secured an early meeting at Mar-a-Lago, but whether she spoke for Italy or Europe remains unclear. Meanwhile, power in Europe is shifting eastward – Poland, with its nearly 5% GDP defence spending, is emerging as a key player in the continent’s security landscape.

The UK, in this regard, can and must do more. The pendulum of British history is in motion once again. The existential crisis following the fall of the empire and the post-Brexit uncertainty must end. The current global instability presents the UK with a unique opportunity to reclaim leadership.

Britain already leads the Joint Expeditionary Force, a coalition of ten Northern European Nato nations – some of which may soon face direct conflict with Russia. As a core member of Five Eyes intelligence alliance, the UK is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in helping Europe defend itself. Britain’s nuclear deterrent further cements its role as a cornerstone of Europe’s security.  As the United States pulls back from Europe, the UK must step up as Nato’s anchor on the Western flank, reinforcing the Eastern frontline. This means unwavering support for Ukraine – its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and geopolitical agency – including its rightful path to Nato membership.

Rumours in London’s diplomatic circles suggest that Britain played a key role in persuading American Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg to stop in London and Paris for consultations before presenting his Ukraine peace plan to Donald Trump. The news that European allies have been included in discussions suggests that this diplomatic intervention was effective. This is what a new Britain should strive for.

While Europe remains leaderless, the UK has a prime opportunity to reclaim its purpose. By providing security expertise, leveraging its centuries-old mastery of naval power, diplomacy, and intelligence, Britain can reassert itself as a strategic leader. In doing so, it can earn the respect of the United States and gain Europe’s trust as a much-needed guiding force.

The time is now.

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