In US President Donald Trump’s geopolitical game, two seemingly unrelated crises—Ukraine and Taiwan—reveal a striking pattern in America’s new foreign policy playbook.

Just a week ago, Donald Trump branded Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator to pressure him into signing a landmark deal. The deal grants the US access to Ukraine’s rare minerals in exchange for economic aid.

Zelensky even traveled to the White House to sign the deal. However, the deal collapsed after a public spat between Trump and Zelensky at the Oval Office.

Over the past fortnight, Trump has reshaped Washington’s approach to Ukraine—initiating direct talks with Russia and ramping up pressure on Zelensky.

This follows a familiar pattern: just like the Ukraine minerals deal, the U.S. seeks to secure Taiwan’s semiconductor technology through the TSMC-Intel deal.

However, while Trump frames this as a victory for U.S. interests, the agreements conspicuously lack one crucial element—security guarantees in both cases.

US-Ukraine Deal 

Donald Trump framed the US-Ukraine deal as a means for Washington to recoup three years’ worth of military aid to Kyiv. However, the agreement notably lacked US security guarantees—Zelensky’s key demand.

Trump remains fixated on brokering a ceasefire, yet with Washington re-engaging Moscow diplomatically, Russia has become emboldened. It outright rejects any Western military presence to enforce a truce in Ukraine.

Zelensky, aware of his precarious position, warned: “Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire. Nothing will work.”

Trump, while dismissing extensive US security commitments, insisted that American workers on Ukrainian soil would serve as an “automatic security” measure.

Meanwhile, the deal’s economic benefits remain enticing: Ukraine gains U.S. capital and technology for reconstruction. But without an ironclad security pact, the deal leaves Kyiv vulnerable to the shifting tides of U.S.-Russia relations.

US-Taiwan: Rising Tensions Over Semiconductors

Trump’s Ukraine strategy echoes his maneuvers with Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.

In the last week of February, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on US-bound imports of cars, semiconductors, and medical products—potentially as soon as April. Experts warn that Taiwan, home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), could be hit the hardest, as an estimated 60% of its revenue comes from the US.

Taiwan, which has a large trade surplus with the United States, could also be subject to the wide-ranging import tariffs Trump has threatened to impose to address trade imbalances.

Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs, J.W. Kuo pushed back, stating that “unfair” tariffs on Taiwanese chips “will not be accepted.” While declining to elaborate due to ongoing negotiations, Kuo characterized Trump’s tariff move as a “negotiation strategy.”

Yet behind the scenes, reports indicate that TSMC is under pressure to form a deeper partnership with Intel, effectively bringing Taiwan’s semiconductor industry closer to U.S. interests.

While Taiwan’s government insists no formal overseas investment application has been made, the move signals an ongoing battle for control over the world’s most critical chip supply chains.

Kao reaffirmed that any such joint venture would require government approval. While Taiwan restricts its companies from producing advanced chips in China, the same rule applies to other countries, with each case needing official clearance.

Neither Intel nor TSMC has confirmed the discussions, but Trump has criticized Taiwan for “taking away” the U.S. semiconductor business, pushing for more domestic production.

However, TSMC is already investing US$65 billion in advanced chip facilities in Arizona, with Taiwan’s government allowing the production of 2nm chips there.

The ministry reiterated that Taiwan’s priority is to maintain a competitive edge in the global semiconductor market while ensuring fair trade practices.

Despite the tensions, Taiwan remains firm. Speaking in Taipei, Kuo asserted, “No one can shake the foundations” of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.

China-Taiwan Military Tensions Intensify

As U.S.-Taiwan trade disputes intensify, so do military tensions between Taiwan and China.

Beijing has increased military activity near Taiwan, conducting drills off the island’s southwestern coast, which it claims are “routine.”

When asked about Taiwan’s upcoming Han Kuang military exercises, China’s defense ministry dismissed the island’s resistance, stating that Taiwan is “like a mantis trying to stop a chariot” and declaring, “Sooner or later, we will take you back.”

In response, Taiwan’s defense ministry fired back on Friday, stating, “This year marks the 80th anniversary of (the end of) World War Two, and History has proven that aggression and expansion will always end in failure.”

Taiwan’s defense ministry condemned China’s growing military threats, warning that Beijing is destabilizing the region and has become the world’s biggest “troublemaker.”

Trump Game In Ukraine And Taiwan

Trump’s tactics in Ukraine and Taiwan reveal a broader strategy—using economic agreements to exert influence while sidestepping direct security commitments.

In Ukraine, he tried to secure access to valuable mineral wealth while leaving Kyiv to negotiate its own security. In Taiwan, he is pressuring TSMC into a deal that would deepen U.S. involvement in the semiconductor industry, effectively binding American interests to Taiwan’s survival without a formal military pledge.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and other members of Trump’s administration see the move as a way to boost U.S. chip production and reduce dependence on Asian supply chains—particularly Taiwan’s. However, this strategy has raised eyebrows, as it seems less about ‘protecting Taiwan’ and more about reshoring US industry.

Consider Trump’s past rhetoric: first, accusing Taiwan of “stealing” the U.S. chip industry and threatening tariffs on its semiconductors. Now, compare that to his recent clashes with Zelensky over Ukraine’s mineral resources.

The pattern is strikingly similar and clear.

Trump expects allies to compensate the US for its support. If the TSMC-Intel deal materializes, it will serve the same function as the Ukraine minerals agreement—tying U.S. interests to a strategically critical region without committing boots on the ground.

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