On the night of March 11, Ukrainian forces launched their largest drone strike yet on Russia—ironically, just as U.S. officials, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were en route to Saudi Arabia for ceasefire talks with Ukrainian officials.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defence (RuMoD), Russian  AD units intercepted and downed 337 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles:

▫️91 UAVs over Moscow region,

▫️126 UAVs over Kursk region,

▫️38 UAVs over Bryansk region,

▫️25 UAVs over Belgorod region,

▫️22 UAVs over Ryazan region,

▫️10 UAVs over Kaluga region,

▫️8 UAVs over Lipetsk region,

▫️8 UAVs over Orel region,

▫️6 UAVs over Voronezh region,

▫️3 UAVs over Nizhniy Novgorod.

Attack Timing

The timing of the attack, the night before talks between Ukraine and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia on ending the war were due to start, was neither happenstance, nor a coincidence.

On March 10, the Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne, citing a Ukrainian official who spoke on condition of anonymity, reported that Ukraine’s delegation at the talks plans to propose a ceasefire with Russia in the air and at sea.

The attack was most likely aimed at impressing upon the U.S. and Russian negotiators the need for a ceasefire in the air.

U.S. Pushes Ukraine To End the War

Following the recent spat between President Trump and President Zelensky in the Oval Office, the Trump administration temporarily suspended U.S. military aid to Ukraine until Zelensky demonstrated a genuine commitment to resolving the conflict peacefully.

The U.S. aid cut has increased pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace deal that requires Ukrainian concessions, including mineral rights to the U.S.

The U.S. aid cut includes suspension of intelligence sharing which disrupts Ukraine’s ability to track and target Russian troops.

Notwithstanding the seriousness of the U.S. aid curback, President Zelensky wants security guarantees from Ukraine’s Western allies before agreeing to any concessions. His proposed ceasefire in the air and at sea is likely aimed at showing his earnestness to pursue peace while firmly holding ground on his demand for security guarantees.

While en route to Saudi Arabia, Secretary Rubio expressed cautious support for Ukraine’s proposal for a sea and air truce as a pathway to peace, emphasizing the importance of re-establishing U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing. He also stated that Ukraine would need to cede some land seized by Russia as part of a peace deal.

Russian Viewpoint

However, Russia has little incentive to take Zelensky’s offer seriously. Russia’s air superiority along the front lines largely enables the steady advance of Russian ground forces across multiple sectors. Russian aircraft, using UMPK glide bombs and other precision-guided munitions, continue to target Ukrainian defensive positions and equipment with significant effect.

In contrast, Ukrainian ability to use air power against Russian forces along the battlefront is, at best, marginal, because of Russian air superiority and deployment of very capable layered air defence systems.

At sea, Ukraine has leveraged Western intelligence, UK-developed tactics, and advanced drone boat technology to challenge Russia’s naval presence. While these attacks have inflicted losses on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, their impact on the broader ground war remains limited. Rather than altering the battlefield dynamics, Ukraine’s naval strikes primarily serve to disrupt Russian operations and maintain Western support by demonstrating continued resistance.

Zelensky likely understands that his limited ceasefire offer will not find traction with Russian peace negotiators.

In many ways, the offer appears facetious, not just because it puts Russian forces at a disadvantage, but also because, with the widespread deployment of drones of various sizes and capabilities along the battlefront, it has become difficult to say where air power ends.

Ambiguity On The Use Of Drones

Would the use of long-range kamikaze drones be covered by the Ukrainian ceasefire in the air? Would the use of battlefield drones be covered?

It depends on how “ceasefire in the air” is defined in Ukraine’s proposal. If the ceasefire specifically refers to manned aircraft and missile strikes, battlefield drones—especially smaller tactical UAVs used for reconnaissance, targeting, and strikes—might not be included. However, if the ceasefire includes all aerial operations, then drones would likely be covered.

Monitoring The Ceasefire

Given that drones have become a crucial part of modern warfare, particularly in Ukraine’s defense strategy, it’s possible that Ukraine would push for exceptions allowing reconnaissance or defensive drone operations. Conversely, Russia, which also heavily relies on drones, may either reject such a restriction or demand an all-encompassing aerial ceasefire, including drones.

If battlefield drones are indeed covered by the Ukrainian ceasefire offer, would there be a requirement to place ceasefire monitors along the battlefront? How realistic would that be, from the Russian point of view?

Attack On Moscow

Ukraine’s massive drone strike on the night of March 11 was likely intended to inflict significant damage on Russia while signaling to Western supporters that its proposed air and sea ceasefire is a serious offer.

Ukrainian sources claimed the attack targeted strategic sites, including oil storage facilities and military production plants. The General Staff reported that strikes reached up to 680 miles into Russia, suggesting an effort to disrupt logistics and infrastructure deep behind enemy lines.

Mass drone attacks on Moscow and its surrounding regions also served as a message to Russian leadership about the need for an aerial ceasefire. Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Combating Disinformation, stated the attack was “a signal to Putin about the need for a ceasefire in the air.”

However, if Russia’s Ministry of Defense (RuMoD) figures on drone shoot-downs are accurate, the effectiveness of Ukraine’s strike may have been significantly reduced by Russian air defenses.

At the time of this report, at least three civilians were confirmed dead, 18 workers were injured at a Moscow meat warehouse, and four airports in the capital temporarily shut down. Falling debris damaged residential buildings and caused fires. There are no reports of damage to Russian strategic installations.

Conclusion 

Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, suggested that the attack may have been intended to disrupt the ongoing negotiations in Saudi Arabia. He also recalled President Vladimir Putin’s past statement that Russia would always respond to such actions.

A Russian lawmaker has called on President Putin to retaliate using the “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile, stating, “The decision is up to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but I think it would not be unreasonable to launch Oreshnik—and better, even more than one.”

While this reflects the sentiment of some lawmakers, precedent suggests that Putin’s likely response will focus on further weakening Ukraine’s military capabilities through coordinated strikes rather than a direct act of vengeance.

==================================================

Laura Geller is celebrating your beauty this International Women's Day! Get 45% off site wide with no coupon code needed. Offer valid 3/8 - 3/10.

==================================================