Beijing is fretting that a split in Taiwan's opposition could pave the way for the island's ruling party - which the Chinese government despises - to stay in power, as China took centre stage in election campaigning over the weekend.

 A supporter of the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) waves a Taiwanese flag outside of the Central Election Commission, in Taipei.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, looms large over the Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary election as it has ramped up military pressure against the island.

Last week, negotiations for a united presidential ticket between the two main opposition parties, which seek closer ties with China, imploded, giving a boost to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), already leading opinion polls.

China's official response so far has been a brief statement from its Taiwan Affairs Office late Friday saying it hopes the election result will help maintain peace and stability, and reiterating that Taiwan faces "a choice between war and peace".

But on Chinese social media, the drama has been followed with a sense of despair at the opposition's disunity.

Zhang Xuesong, director of strategic research at Chinese think tank CICG Asia-Pacific, wrote on his Weibo social media account that the disintegration of the talks was a "loss for cross-Taiwan Strait peace".

"That was an extremely frustrating day," he added. "Of course, the only thing that gives us confidence is that Taiwan is one step closer to finally being reunified."

Other Chinese Weibo accounts that follow Taiwan have been similarly despondent.

State-run Shenzhen Television wrote that the breakdown in talks signalled "a chaotic battle" to come in the election.

One Chinese Weibo user wrote simply: "I saw news that the talks broke down, and now I've lost hope."

The DPP has defied Chinese pressure. Beijing views DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te as a separatist and has rebuffed repeated offers of talks from both him and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.

Speaking at a campaign rally on Sunday night in Taipei's sister city New Taipei, Lai said that if Taiwan accepts it is part of China - Beijing's bottom line for talks - it will lose sovereignty.

"With no sovereignty, you will have no ownership over your land, your homes," Lai said.

Hou Yu-ih, the candidate for Taiwan's largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), told his supporters that a vote for Lai was a vote for war and only he could bring peace. Lai and the DPP strongly dispute that point of view.

On Monday, China's Taiwan Affairs Office repeated its attacks on Lai and running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, formerly Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the United States.

Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan", it said.

Opinion polls since the opposition talks collapsed have given a mixed picture.

The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation said that just more than half of respondents to the question of who they regarded as having the "best prospects" of winning answered Lai.

Television station ETtoday put Lai at about 35%, with Hou nipping at his heels with 33% and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je from the small Taiwan People's Party at 21%.

A split opposition gives Lai an increased chance of victory in Taiwan's first-past-the-post system. In 2020's election, the DPP won in a landslide, taking 56% of the vote, but only had to face one main opponent, the KMT's Han Kuo-yu.

Taiwan Draws Clear US-Vs.-China Battle Lines in Key Election.

Taiwan’s voters in January will have the chance to reset the island’s fraught relationship with China, and cool down one of the world’s key geopolitical flashpoints.

With less than seven weeks to go until polling day, that prospect now hangs in the balance after opposition parties that seek better relations with Beijing failed to unite behind a single candidate, despite weeks of chaotic and often acrimonious negotiations that played out in public.

The collapse of the opposition alliance makes Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stated goal of voluntary unification with Taiwan more remote, with pro-Beijing votes scattered among the challengers to the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party. That would benefit the ruling party’s candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-te, who wants to further strengthen Taiwan’s ties with Washington.

Standing in Lai’s way are the Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je, both of whom have said they plan to restart direct talks with Beijing. Foxconn Technology Group founder Terry Gou withdrew from the presidential race just hours before Friday’s registration deadline, saying he did so for the “greater good” to give the two remaining opposition candidates a better chance of unseating the DPP.

Despite the fractured opposition, an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there’s growing unhappiness with the party, especially among younger voters. Support for Lai dipped to 31.9%, leaving him just a fraction ahead of the KMT’s Hou on 30%, according to a survey by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation released Sunday. Ko trails in third place on 26%.

“There are a substantial amount of voters who want a change,” said Wei-Ting Yen, assistant professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. “So there is a higher chance for the DPP to lose the majority in the legislature.”

Geopolitical tensions with China are also giving opposition candidates something to seize on.

“Current trends look dangerous to many Taiwanese voters,” said Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University who cited concerns about “sudden economic embargoes, more diplomatic isolation and more threats of war.”

The KMT’s Hou can “credibly claim” his administration would be able to work with Beijing, Templeman said, adding that his election “could also buy time for Taiwan to implement more extensive defense reforms.“

Friday’s registration deadline for the election confirmed the final roster of candidates contesting the Jan. 13 vote. Their choices of vice presidential running mates also provided strong indications of where their priorities lie.

Lai’s vice presidential pick, Hsiao Bi-khim — Taiwan’s former de facto ambassador to the US — points to his party’s efforts to build upon its success in strengthening unofficial ties overseas, especially with Washington.

“We’ve been put in a situation where geostrategic challenges are formidable and the rock-solid partnership with the US is critically important,” Hsiao said at a press conference Thursday.

While the US doesn’t formally recognize Taiwan as a nation, it has vowed to help the island defend itself against what American officials say is an increasingly aggressive China. Beijing views Taiwan as a part of Chinese territory.

Both Lai and Hsiao assert Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign country in need of greater international recognition. China has labeled Lai a “troublemaker,” and has put Hsiao on its sanctions list of “die-hard” Taiwan independence supporters.

Their potential to win January’s vote raises the stakes for Beijing. Responding to the breakdown in opposition talks, China’s Taiwan affairs office issued a statement saying it hopes Taiwanese voters “oppose independence” and make the right choice when facing peace or war, prosperity or recession, according to a China Central Television report.

Hou selected television presenter and media owner Jaw Shaw-kong as his running mate. A former KMT legislator in the 1980s, Jaw split from the party in the early 1990s to co-found a hardline unification political party, only to rejoin the KMT in 2021.

Hou’s choice of a China-leading vice president “sends a clear signal that they aim to consolidate the blue voters,” Franklin & Marshall College’s Yen said, referring to that part of the electorate that favors Taiwan’s eventual unification with China. “If the KMT is successful in the strategic voting campaign, we can expect the poll number to go up for the KMT candidate, and it will be a much closer race,” she said.

New Taiwan Poll Shows Outsider Leading Presidential Race.

 A new poll of Taiwanese voters found the top opposition candidate for president jumped past the ruling party’s hopeful into lead position ahead of January’s election, the latest twist in a drama-filled race.

Ko Wen-je, the Taiwan People’s Party’s nominee, had an approval rating of 31.9% versus 29.2% for Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, according to the poll released Monday by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation.

The opposition Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih was third with 23.6%, according to the survey conducted November 19-21. The margin of error for the poll is 2.99%.

The timing of the poll means voters were queried about their preferences after the TPP and KMT, Taiwan’s main opposition parties which favor greater engagement with China, said they intended to form a joint ticket. The survey was conducted too early to capture the reaction to the talks later collapsing.

Ko and Hou each officially registered as presidential candidates on Friday, ending any prospect that they might share a ticket. Foxconn Technology Group’s billionaire founder Terry Gou also dropped out of the race the same day.

The collapse of the alliance should improve Lai’s chances at victory by splitting the opposition vote between two candidates. An administration under the DPP, which has sought to strengthen Taiwan’s ties with the US and its allies as a counterweight to China, would further obstruct Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stated goal of bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, and while it has pledged to seek peaceful unification, Beijing has also not ruled out the use of force.

Ko’s emergence as the leading candidate in this latest poll, the first time that he’s beat Lai in a survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, underscores how unpredictable the race has been. Positioning himself as an outsider looking to topple the traditional parties, Ko has been especially popular among young and well-educated urban voters. The foundation described him as “a horrible nightmare” for the DPP and KMT.

Underscoring how close the race is, other polls show Ko running third. According to local media reports, Wu Tsu-chia, the head of the online news outlet My-formosa.com said late Sunday that a poll conducted Nov. 20-23, showed Lai leading with 31.9%, Hou in second at 30% and Ko at 26%.

A TVBS poll conducted Nov. 24-26 showed Lai leading with 34%, Hou in second at 31% and Ko at 23%.