Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing fears that President Donald Trump will withdraw US security guarantees that have protected Europe for decades have forced the continent to confront tough choices on defence.

According to NATO figures, Spain dedicated 1.28 percent of its annual economic output to defence last year, well short of the alliance’s longstanding two-percent benchmark and less than all other members.

And in the new geopolitical scenario, with the European Commission looking to turbocharge defence spending to achieve greater security independence, the two-percent target agreed by NATO members in 2014 may prove insufficient.

Trump has repeatedly demanded that other NATO countries bear a greater burden for Europe’s defence, and floated the idea of raising the spending target to five percent of GDP.

Felix Arteaga, senior researcher in security and defence at the Elcano Royal Institute think tank, explains why Spain invests “little in defence” because of a consistent pattern in its budgets.

“When the economy does well, the defence budget increases, but less than the other budgets. And when it does badly, it is cut more than the others,” he told AFP.

“Licking” American Boots

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told a press conference on Thursday that he was prepared to bring forward a 2029 target date for achieving the two percent mark.

But his minority coalition government faces an uphill battle as it relies on an array of separatist and fringe parties to pass legislation.

Pro-independence Catalan and Basque formations are unwilling to bolster the Spanish army, while far-left groups traditionally hostile to NATO and US policy fear increased military spending will slash funds for social programmes.

Ione Belarra, spokeswoman for the hard-left Podemos party, said Wednesday that her party would not help the Socialists continue “licking the boots of the United States”.

Sanchez on Thursday hosted talks at his official Madrid residence with leaders and senior figures from opposition parties, except the far-right Vox, in a bid to reach a consensus.

Trying to assuage the concerns of his left-wing allies, he said “not a cent” would be cut from social policies. “We will not enter an arms race and I will not participate in a war-mongering discourse,” he added.

Alberto Nunez Feijoo, head of the conservative Popular Party, the main opposition group, described his meeting as an “informal conversation” that did not reveal how Sanchez intended to open the spending taps.

Defence Spending ‘Viewed Differently’

The 36-year dictatorship of General Francisco Franco long shaped Spanish perceptions of the military, but public opinion towards it improved after the return of democracy, with the army participating in international peacekeeping missions and domestic emergencies.

But that has not translated into full support for more military spending.

In a November survey by national polling institute CIS, only 14.2 percent of participants backed raising the military budget “a lot more”, with health and education emerging as the main priorities.

Spain stayed out of both World Wars and remained relatively isolated during the Cold War, which “has inspired our collective culture and led to defence spending being viewed differently”, Arteaga wrote in an article.

Spain earned a place at recent summits on the Ukraine war in Paris and London, which involved a select group of European leaders. But if Spain “does not stand with the rest” on spending, the country will “lose influence in the decisions relating to defence and security”, Arteaga said.