A major armed conflict between NATO and Russia is imminent if a secret document from the German Armed Forces is to be believed, with Russia invading NATO’s Baltic states as early as July.

The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) are preparing for a potential hybrid attack by Russia on NATO's eastern flank this February, reported Bild.

An escalation between NATO and Russia is expected as early as February, a Bild source said, referencing a secret Bundeswehr document.

Army of Germany.

The confidential document details how a conflict between Russia and NATO might arise, with events unfolding month by month. The culmination involves deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the start of war in the summer of 2025.

The Bild story builds a scenario for war that focuses on security and avoids specifics regarding the number and movement of NATO troops. The Bundeswehr’s “Defense Alliance 2023” scenario predicts that Russian mobilization will begin in February 2024, followed by a Spring offensive in Ukraine and an attack on the Baltic countries in July. Cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are expected.

Tensions could peak in October with Russia moving troops and missiles to Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave in Poland — ed.).

“Border conflicts” and “unrests with numerous casualties” are possible in the “Suwalki corridor” (the small corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad that lies along the Polish-Lithuanian border — ed.) in December. 2024.  Russia could repeat its 2014 invasion of Ukraine on NATO territory with Belarusian support, after the U.S. elections, when the United States might become leaderless.

The scenario ends 30 days after “D-Day,” when NATO, including the Bundeswehr, deploys significant military forces to the eastern flank. However, whether NATO will be able to contain Russia remains an open question in the scenario.

Russian official compares media claims that NATO is preparing for Russian offensive to "last year's horoscope"

Maria Zakharova.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has responded to a leaked German plan for how the country would respond to a Russian hybrid assault on NATO’s eastern flank, which it suggests might occur in July 2024.

Details: German tabloid Bild has leaked the details of what it claims to be a secret memo by the German Defence Ministry that outlines a possible "path to conflict" between Russia and NATO. The memo outlines Russia’s actions and the West’s response month by month, with Russia expected to launch hybrid assaults on European countries in the summer of 2024 and to start a full-scale war in the summer of 2025.

The memo envisions that Russia could use clashes in the Baltic states as a pretext to deploy troops and medium-range missile systems to Kaliningrad and could invade NATO countries during the US presidential elections.

The German Defence Ministry’s Alliance Defence 2025 plan is allegedly set to be put in place in February 2024, as Germany considers it possible that Russia might launch a new offensive in Ukraine in the spring.

Quote from Zakharova: "I read Germany’s ‘secret plan’ that was leaked to Bild, an information gutter. It’s like a mighty horoscope from last year for Pisces in Cancer. I suppose that the analysis was undertaken by the German Foreign Ministry headed by [Annalena] Baerbock."

Previously: Russian officials denied Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine ahead of the full-scale invasion. For the past two years, Russia has referred to its war against Ukraine as a "special military operation". It also denies it intends to launch an attack on NATO, but NATO countries are still preparing for a possible Russian invasion on NATO’s eastern flank.