David Axe, writing for Forbes.com, also suggested that as Russian forces made advances in Avdiivka two weeks ago it simply means the frontlines are closer to Ukrainian positions. Thus as the Russians advance, they may face greater anti-aircraft fire. A surge in Russian sorties simply has resulted in greater losses.

Russia Could be Reaching an Aerial Breaking Point

Even a few downed aircraft could put greater pressure on the Kremlin – and Axe added, "The Russian air force is losing warplanes far, far faster than it can afford to lose them. Russia's sanctions-throttled aerospace industry is struggling to build more than a couple of dozen new planes a year."

Moscow doesn't have the option to head to deep storage as it has to replenish its forces with vintage tanks. Simply put, Russia doesn't have older aircraft to press into service and while Cold War-era tanks aren't ideal, few could expect vintage fighters to hold their own for long.

Moreover, even without being shot down, the surge in sorties is taking a toll on the Kremlin.

As Michael Bohnert of the RAND Corporation wrote last August, "The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, possessed roughly 900 tactical aircraft before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These included fighter, attack, and fighter-bomber aircraft. Since the invasion, it has lost between 84 and 130 of those to air defenses, fighter aircraft, and crashes. That's only a portion of total losses, however. Overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia as the war drags on."

That is a fact the United States Air Force understands as it didn't actually employ the B-1B Lancer in combat until the 1990s, but just over 25 years later those bombers are in dire need of replacement after being pressed hard in the Global War on Terror. The miles and time in the sky add up, and as Bohnert added, "Aircraft have a life span. They are designed with a total number of expected flight hours, which are used roughly evenly over the life of the aircraft and segmented with periodic maintenance and inspection."

The situation isn't likely to get better when Kyiv receives the long-promised F-16 Fighting Falcons. A few aircraft from the West won't tip the scales completely in Ukraine's favor, but Russia certainly won't have anything close to control of the skies.