Putin’s long history of brutal warfare is coming back to haunt him

0
2χλμ.

It is no secret that the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) group, identified as being behind the recent Moscow terror attack, hates Vladimir Putin and Russia. Russian military campaigns in Syria, Dagestan and Chechnia and Wagner Group actions in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (as well as Mozambique and many other places) have positioned Russia as an enemy of these militant Islamists – and yet one of their more vulnerable foes. Putin’s (predictable) attempt to somehow blame the Ukrainians for the attack will fool very few at home or abroad.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with election campaign activists at Kremlin in Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin 

This war between radical Islamists and Russia is not new at all, though the West has to some degree forgotten it with the arrival of the wider conflict in Ukraine. The Russian war with the Islamists goes way back to the breakup of the Soviet Union, which sparked several civil wars across former Soviet republics including Tajikistan – where the four arrested suspects are supposedly from.

Initially the Islamists were brutally suppressed by the Tajik authorities using their ‘OMON’ special police forces (many other post-Soviet countries including Russia have OMON units).  The commander of the Tajikistan OMON, Gulmurod Khalimov, defected to ISIS in 2015 and went on to become their Minister for War. While Khalimov was reportedly killed in a Russian strike in 2017, some sources believe he is still alive and active. With the arrest of four Tajik suspects, the attack may well have been directly inspired by Khalimov or his successors.

The nature of the attack has all the hallmarks of an ISIS atrocity, like the one in Paris in November 2015 which claimed the lives of 134 concert goers. Other attacks in Russia have included the Moscow theatre assault in 2002 which saw 132 hostages killed (mostly by a botched Russian attempt to gas the terrorists). Some 334 people – including 186 children – died in the Beslan school attack of 2004. More recently attacks on Moscow airport in 2011 and the St Petersburg Metro in 2017 again show a pattern and modus operandi typical of ISIS.

The intent is, as always, to goad the Russians into a disproportionate response against Muslims with the intent of further radicalising the sizable Russian Muslim minority – which will soon make up a third of Russia’s population. This will be one reason why Putin, after a period of silence, has chosen to blame Ukraine for the attack. Putin needs to galvanise support for his failing war at home and is currently engaged in a near frenzied recruitment drive in Muslim majority former USSR states, including Tajikistan. He cannot blame Tajikistan for the atrocity, despite the evidence being clear.

Crocus City Hall burns on March 22. The deadly terror attack on the edge of Moscow came just days after Vladimir Putin's sham re-election as Russian President
Crocus City Hall burns on March 22. The deadly terror attack on the edge of Moscow came just days after Vladimir Putin's sham re-election as Russian President - Sergei Vedyashkin/Moscow News Agency via AP

This attack also represents a catastrophic failure in intelligence for the Russian FSB security agency, with warnings of the attack having been published weeks ago by US and UK intelligence agencies, amongst others. Then there is a realisation that such a complex attack could not have been the work of four Tajiks in isolation.

Together, these facts make Putin and his regime look weak and vulnerable even as he casts around looking for more enemies – real or imagined – in order to rally an increasingly war-weary Russian public and maintain his grasp on power.

The attack is also a timely reminder to the rest of us that Putin’s crimes are not only of the last two years: he has been fighting brutal wars in many other places than Ukraine for decades and he must be stopped. As his opponents learned many times in Syria, any compromise will simply give him time to regroup and rearm before he re-starts the fight at a time and place of his choosing.

If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, Putin will soon be back, much stronger than he is now. Confronting him then will come at a price that we in the unprepared and self-indulgent West will be unwilling to pay.

Αναζήτηση
Κατηγορίες
Διαβάζω περισσότερα
Music
Dumping Syndrome Market Top Players, Size, Share and Forecast to 2028
Global Dumping Syndrome Market, By Treatment (Medication, Surgery, Others), Diagnosis...
από sumitm18 2023-07-21 11:00:12 0 3χλμ.
Health
Vasopressors Size, Trends, Opportunities, Demand, Growth Analysis and Forecast By 2029
The universal Global Vasopressors Market research report gives detailed market insights with...
από hemantb 2023-11-22 06:44:52 0 3χλμ.
άλλο
Trends Shaping Industries: A Deep Dive into Blockchain Distributed Ledger Market and Growth Analysis
The global blockchain distributed ledger market size is expected to reach USD 228.31 Billion in...
από ishadeshpande 2024-02-01 12:54:14 0 3χλμ.
άλλο
Discover Magic Hour's AI-Powered Solution
  Are you tired of spending hours trying to perfect a face swap in your photos? Look no...
από katiegloria 2024-12-28 04:24:09 0 2χλμ.
Film/Movie
每一集都是烧脑挑战!《九部的检察官》到底有多扣人心弦?
《九部的检察官》作为2024年上映的国产剧,由著名导演梁昊执导,以其紧张刺激的剧情和扣人心弦的情节迅速吸引了大批观众。这部剧不仅展现了检察官的日常工作,更深入挖掘了法律与人性的复杂关系。作为一名...
από ahr147 2024-08-27 01:30:22 0 1χλμ.