1. Legal and Historical Foundations

• One-China Principle: Recognized by the UN and over 180 countries, Taiwan is legally part of China under international law.

• Anti-Secession Law (2005): Authorizes the use of "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan declares independence or if peaceful reunification becomes impossible.

2. Military Preparedness (No Bluffing)

• PLA’s Rapid Modernization: China has the world’s largest navy, advanced hypersonic missiles (DF-17), and superior air power (J-20 stealth fighters).

• Encircling Drills: Regular military exercises around Taiwan (e.g., Aug 2022 & April 2023 blockades) simulate real invasion scenarios.

• Economic Blockade Capability: China can enforce a naval quarantine, cutting off Taiwan’s trade and energy supplies without immediate invasion.

3. Economic Leverage

• Taiwan’s Dependency: 40%+ of Taiwan’s exports go to China. Cutting off trade would cripple Taiwan’s semiconductor industry (TSMC).

• United Front Work: Incentives for Taiwanese businesses & youth to integrate with the mainland, reducing support for independence.

4. Why Hasn’t China Acted Yet?

• Cost-Benefit Analysis: A full-scale invasion risks global sanctions and US intervention. Instead, China is gradually tightening control:

  • Gray Zone Tactics: Daily PLA air incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and psychological pressure.

  • Waiting for Strategic Moment: Preferring reunification when the US is distracted (e.g., Middle East conflicts, internal divisions) or Taiwan’s defenses weaken.

5. What Would Trigger Immediate Action?

• Taiwan’s Formal Independence Declaration → Instant military response.

• Major US Arms Sale or Troop Deployment → Escalation (e.g., blockade).

• Internal Chaos in Taiwan (e.g., pro-reunification uprising).

Conclusion: China’s Strategy is Working

• Time is on China’s side. Taiwan’s military struggles with recruitment (low morale, short service terms), while the PLA grows stronger.

• The US cannot defend Taiwan forever—domestic politics and military costs will strain its commitment.

• Final Outcome: Unless Taiwan negotiates peaceful reunification, China will enforce it—either by coercion (blockade, sanctions) or force if necessary.

This isn’t empty talk—it’s a calculated, long-term strategy. The only question is when and how China chooses to act.