During India’s daring Operation Sindoor to target terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, Islamabad claimed shooting down five Indian jets, including three Rafale aircraft, all of which were in Indian airspace at the time. 

Rafale maker Dassault did not comment, and India has not officially acknowledged losses.

Analysts suggest that Indian aircraft were shot down by a Chinese air-to-air missile, the PL-15E, with a range of 145 kilometres in the version acquired by Islamabad, and whose debris was found in Indian territory.

According to a European military source quoted by AFP, it is “very unlikely” that three Rafales were destroyed.

India might have lost one Rafale to a Pakistani J-10C firing a PL-15 air-to-air missile in an ultra-long-range air engagement, said Carnegie’s Tellis.

According to a French fighter pilot interviewed by AFP, this type of missile can target a position while remaining undetected “until its own radar is activated a few dozen kilometres away, or a few seconds” from its target.

But then again, Pakistan has not provided any credible evidence to support its claims other than citing unverified images on social media.

One such image is below from Wuyan village, the Indian part of Jammu and Kashmir.

These images were clicked shortly after the clashes of May 6. According to social media users, they appear to show Rafale debris near a school in Wuyan village in the Indian part of Kashmir.

Many pro-Pakistan netizens claimed that inscriptions visible on the wreckage confirm the aircraft’s identity. They also say the writing includes the name of a French company, Le Bozec et Gautier, and the RFL acronym, commonly used to refer to Rafales.

However, Xavier Tytelman, an aviation and defence expert, says this interpretation is faulty, according to France24.

“[These images] are not proof that a plane was shot down. It shows a drop tank. When a jet goes on a mission, once it has used its fuel, it will lighten its load and drop its tank. It’s something planes intentionally release during their missions.”

It is also likely that the fuel tank belongs to a Mirage 2000, another French aircraft also used by the IAF. A higher-resolution image reveals that a part of the tank was manufactured in December 1984. This is a year and a half before the first test flights of the Rafale demonstrator.

Additionally, contrary to claims made by some Pakistani social media users, the tank’s acronym RPL (for “réservoir pendular large,” meaning jettisonable external tank) is written on it, not RFL, which is associated with the Rafale, the expert said.

EurAsian Times Editor and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda argues that what matters is who won the war instead of counting minuscule losses. He says, combat losses are part and parcel of any war.

During the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. lost 28 fixed-wing aircraft in combat and 12 in non-combat situations. Additionally, 23 U.S. helicopters were lost, with 5 in combat and 18 in non-combat situations. The US was reported to have lost 75 aircraft, with 63 U.S. aircraft and 12 allied aircraft.

During the 1999 air campaign over Serbia, the US and NATO lost two combat jets. One was a USAF F-16C fighter jet, and the other was a cutting-edge F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter.

Against this background, Professor Amit Gupta, Senior Fellow at the National Institute of Deterrence Studies, USA, suggests India must strongly counter Pakistan’s information war.

“Islamabad got al-Jazeera to announce that an Indian woman pilot had been shot down and captured, and this forced India to ask for a ceasefire. How difficult is it to put this officer on TV and to then tell Al-Jazeera that they are an incompetent and biased news outlet?”.

Nanda argues, India must fight Pakistan’s disinformation war.