And the Winner is .....................?

India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, started an armed conflict this month that could have led to unprecedented annihilation.

The war lasted only three days — it ended with President Trump jauntily announcing on TruthSocial, “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Indians were furious, with at one member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party saying, “Trump appeared suddenly out of nowhere and pronounced his verdict.” In Pakistan, however, there were mass celebrations in the streets. Trump was declared a hero.

The difference in the reactions is telling. It reveals the new geostrategic balance in the region, and how a war between India and Pakistan ended with the latter on top.

The story of this latest conflict began with a terrorist attack on Indian tourists in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir on Apr. 22. The attack left 26 dead at a time when Modi had been promoting the area as safe for tourists and no longer an embattled zone. India immediately — literally within an hour — blamed the strike on Pakistani-sponsored terror groups and vowed to avenge the attack.

In the two weeks that followed, the two armies remained on high alert. In India, the mood was angry, with Indian media demanding Pakistan’s total destruction. The government closed 8,000 social media accounts and blocked numerous YouTube channels.

Pakistanis took to social media, flooding Instagram with memes and reels making fun of Indians — and often their own country as well.

By the time India attacked on May 7, anchors on Indian television shows had worked themselves and the Indian public into a war frenzy. Indian media — which has largely been coopted by the Modi government — made unverified and false claims that much of Pakistan had been destroyed, that Islamabad was taken over and the Karachi port decimated.

In reality, when the attack began, Pakistan made unexpected and shocking gains within the first few hours of fighting. Pakistani officials claimed to have downed five Indian warplanes, notably including the French-built Rafale fighter jets that India had only recently purchased for a whopping $7.4 billion dollars. India’s strikes claimed to have targeted nine sites that the Indian government said were terrorist training camps.

Then, on May 8, India claimed to have struck several military bases deep inside Pakistan, including one just miles from the Pakistani military’s General Headquarters. Within hours of those attacks, Pakistan launched a retaliatory offensive that it claimed took out India’s Russian-made S-400 air defense system and several Indian military storage depots, border posts and parts of military bases.

This is where things stood when Trump stepped in and announced that the two sides had called it quits, at his urging.

In the aftermath, Pakistan held a press conference of its military top brass and played intercepted radio communications from one of the Rafales in which a pilot in the formation is heard reporting an explosion in the air, likely from a plane in his squadron. Pakistan’s claim of bringing down India’s Rafale jets was eventually verified by the Washington Post.

There are many reasons for Pakistan to claim victory. First, it was able to show the strength of its strategic partnership with China, which has been supplying Pakistan with military hardware such as the PL-15 missiles that downed the Rafales with AI-guided precision, without ever having to leave their own territory.

Second, Trump intervened at a time when Pakistan had just finished its retaliatory operation against India and successfully caused damage to Indian military targets. This allowed it to claim that India had capitulated because of the strength of these strikes.

Third, the fight brought the issue of the embattled Kashmir region — a Muslim-majority area that has been occupied by Indian forces since 1947 and whose residents deplore the excesses of the tens of thousands of Indian troops stationed there — back on the international stage.

Fourth, the intervention by the U.S. as a mediator weakened India’s claim that America was backing its fight against Pakistan and would look away while India slammed Pakistan with strikes under the pretext of eradicating terrorism.

In a May 11 press conference, India’s military top brass was asked again and again about the downed planes — queries that were not met by denials, but with the Air Force chief noting that “losses are part of combat” and that details would be revealed at appropriate times. In Parliament, Rahul Gandhi, the main opposition leader, questioned the rationale of Modi’s ruling party, calling the whole operation a massive foreign policy blunder that had succeeded in uniting Pakistan and China to create a formidable front against India.

Terrorist camps, as some commentators noted, can be set up almost anywhere, and a few drone attacks would not make a difference. America, after all, still lost in Afghanistan despite thousands of drone strikes.

In Pakistan, the military — whose popularity had waned in recent years following its involvement in the arrest and detention of former Prime Minister Imran Khan — is ascendant again, feted and festooned with praise from the people. It was a David versus Goliath match up, given that the Indian military has five times the budget and military might as Pakistan. David appears to have won.