Just over a week after a ceasefire with India was struck, Pakistan’s foreign minister is visiting his country’s largest arms supplier, China, with the performance of the weapons they supplied a matter of burning interest for analysts and governments alike.

The most striking claim from four days of fighting earlier this month was Islamabad’s contention that its Chinese-supplied jets had shot down six Indian aircraft — including three French-made Rafale fighters — with some observers seeing this as a symbol of Beijing’s rising military might.

Experts who spoke to AFP cautioned that a lack of confirmed information and the limited scope of fighting made it difficult to draw solid conclusions about the Chinese equipment’s prowess.

Still, “this was a rare opportunity for the international community to gauge Chinese military hardware on the battlefield against Western (Indian) hardware”, said Lyle Morris from the Asia Society Policy Institute.

While China pours hundreds of billions of dollars into defence spending each year, it lags far behind the United States as an arms exporter.

China’s drones are used in counter-terrorism operations, and its weapons have been deployed by Saudi Arabia in Yemen and against rebel forces in African countries, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) senior researcher Siemon Wezeman told AFP.

“But this is the first time since the 1980s that a state has used large numbers of Chinese weapons of many types in action against another state,” said Wezeman, referencing the Iran-Iraq war when they were used on both sides.

Primary Option

Pakistan accounts for around 63 percent of China’s arms exports, according to SIPRI.

In the recent fighting, Pakistan used the J10-C Vigorous Dragon and JF-17 Thunder planes, armed with air-to-air missiles.

It was the first time the J10-C has been used in active combat, said the Stimson Center’s Yun Sun.

Islamabad’s air defences also used Chinese kit—including the HQ-9P long-range surface-to-air missile system—and deployed Chinese radar as well as armed and reconnaissance drones.

“This was the first sustained fight where the bulk of Pakistan’s forces used Chinese weapons and, basically, relied on them as their primary option,” said Bilal Khan, founder of the Toronto-based Quwa Defence News & Analysis Group.

India has not officially confirmed that any of its aircraft were lost, although a senior security source told AFP three jets had crashed on home soil without giving the make or cause.

Rafale maker Dassault has also not commented.

James Char from Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University said the Rafale is considered one of Europe’s most high-tech jets, while the J-10C “is not even China’s most advanced.”

But if Pakistan’s claims are true, “this should not be surprising… considering that the Rafale is a multirole fighter, whereas the J-10C was built for aerial combat and is also equipped with a stronger radar,” Char said.

However, the Chinese air-defence systems “do not appear to have been as effective as the Pakistan Air Force would have hoped”, said Quwa’s Khan, after India said it had neutralised one near the eastern border city of Lahore.

If true, said SIPRI’s Wezeman, that “would be a bigger success and more than balance the loss of some aircraft in the process”.

Chinese Media On Indonesia 

Meanwhile, Chinese media, SCMP, said that Indonesia’s bet on Rafale jets is facing scrutiny after Pakistan claimed to have shot down three of the same aircraft used by India, raising questions in Jakarta about the cost, capability, and strategic logic behind the US$8.1 billion deal.

It adds that the reports have triggered an alarm in Indonesia, which last year concluded an order for 42 Rafales from Dassault Aviation.

Dave Laksono, a member of Commission I at the House of Representatives, which oversees defence, defended the government’s decision to buy Rafales, saying that any “unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system”.

“In modern military history, even the most advanced jets such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22 have experienced incidents of being shot down or crashed due to certain tactical conditions,” Laksono said. Therefore, the performance of the Rafale cannot be measured by just one incident that has not even been fully confirmed.”

The Indonesian official appeared to have punctured the unconfirmed reports on Rafale jets.

Significant Reorientation

In the days after the dogfight reports, J10-C maker Chengdu Aircraft Company’s stock soared over forty percent.

“We most likely will see more orders going to Chinese contractors,” said the Stimson Center’s Sun.

However, Jennifer Kavanagh from the US think tank Defense Priorities said, “It will take time and significant reorientation by Chinese arms manufacturers for the country to be a big arms exporter.”

She noted that China “cannot mass-produce certain key inputs, including aircraft engines”.

Wezeman said he thought the stock markets “overreacted” because “we still have to see how well all the weapons used worked and if it really means much.”

The analysts said that even if more data emerges, the conflict still does not reveal much about the Chinese military’s capabilities.

China’s own systems and weapons are much more advanced than what it exports.

While having high-tech hardware is important, “much more important is how those weapons are used,” said Kavanagh.

Brian Hart of CSIS cautioned against “reading too much” into recent developments. “I don’t think you can make direct comparisons to how these Chinese-made systems would fare in different environments against more advanced adversaries like the United States,” he explained.

“Since the number of data points is small and since we don’t know much about the proficiency and training of the personnel on either side, it is hard to draw definitive conclusions,” said Kavanagh.