Despite more than three years of conflict and international sanctions that have hurt its economy and defense manufacturing, Russia may be poised to induct a nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile, signaling an expansion in its nuclear capabilities.

This was revealed in an annual threat assessment published earlier this month by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

However, Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) think tank, drew attention to the mention of this new missile in a post on X on May 21.

“Russia is expanding its nuclear forces by adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles and novel nuclear systems,” the DIA report notes.

The revelation is significant because no other country in the world currently has this capability. The US had earlier developed nuclear air-to-air missiles, such as the AIM-26 Falcon, but they were decommissioned.

In fact, even Russia has not admitted to developing any new nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles in years following the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The DIA assessment comes months after Russia deployed a long-range R-33 air-to-air missile for a “non-strategic nuclear readiness exercise” in 2024.

The R-33 is designed with a conventional high-explosive fragmentation warhead to engage high-altitude, high-speed targets like bombers and reconnaissance aircraft. However, this particular missile is believed to have the capability to carry a nuclear warhead even though Moscow has not acknowledged it. That capability, of course, remains untested. 

The DIA assessment did not publish any specific information about the air-to-air nuclear-tipped missile, including its name, its range, or its development status.

Since the missile is described as new, this has sparked speculation that it is likely to be a nuclear-tipped variant of Russia’s newest long-range R-37M air-to-air missile. For instance, Hans wrote in his post, “Potentially AA-13 (R37?) displayed in 2024 exercise.”

However, these are mere predictions made by certain reports and experts online and cannot be independently verified.

The R-37M is Russia’s most advanced operational air-to-air missile, designed for long-range engagements. With a range of about 300 to 400 kilometres, it has been extensively used by Russia to launch stand-off attacks against Ukraine.

It is powered by a dual-pulse solid-propellant rocket motor, which accelerates it toward its target as the launch aircraft provides mid-course updates. According to publicly available information, it is designed for high precision against agile targets.

The R-37M is compatible with MiG-31, Su-30SM, Su-35S, and Su-57. Notably, the R-37 M-armed MiG-31 has been the main threat against the battered Ukrainian Air Force since October 2022.

Back in 2022, there were reports that Russia was launching six R-37M missiles a day, endangering Ukrainian fighter jets and coercing them to fly away from the frontline or incorporate new techniques to survive the missile barrage.

While it is more convenient to believe that Russia would equip the existing R-37M air-to-air missile with nuclear capability, there is no evidence to corroborate this. Additionally, the possibility of an all-new long-range air-to-air missile can also not be dismissed.

Interestingly, this revelation comes as the US President Donald Trump has said he wants to engage Russia and China in nuclear arms reduction talks.

Speaking at the Davos Summit shortly after taking office in January 2025, Trump said: “Tremendous amounts of money are being spent on nuclear, and the destructive capability is something that we don’t even want to talk about today, because you don’t want to hear it.” “We want to see if we can denuclearize, and I think that’s very possible,” he added.

He reiterated the need to reduce nuclear stockpiles again in February 2025, emphasising that there was “no reason” to build new nuclear weapons as the US, Russia, and China already collectively possess enough to destroy the world 50 times, or 100 times over. The President has since proposed trilateral discussions to potentially halve military budgets, proposing that those resources could be redirected to more productive uses.

On its part, Russia has been criticised for engaging in nuclear brinksmanship multiple times since it launched the invasion of Ukraine. It has threatened nuclear action against Ukraine, as well as its backers in NATO.

However, in January 2025, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated Russia’s desire to restart nuclear arms control talks with the US “as soon as possible,” particularly to address the New START treaty, which expires in February 2026. Thus, inspiring confidence.

Despite this, nuclear expansion continues. In addition to the new nuke-tipped air-to-air launched missile, the assessment sheds light on several aspects.

Meanwhile, IAF veteran Vijainder K Thakur, says the new missile could possibly be used to check an American B-21 Raider. He adds that in the 1950s and 1960s, nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles were seen as an effective way to destroy bomber formations. Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union developed such weapons. 

DIA’s Assessment Of Russian WMDs

The document states that Russia likely maintains a nuclear stockpile of about 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 non-strategic  (or tactical) warheads.

This appears to be a more conservative figure as compared to other sources.  For example, a report on Russian nuclear weapons, 2025, prepared by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists states that Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,309 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces, of which 1718 strategic warheads are deployed.

“Of the stockpiled warheads, approximately 1,718 strategic warheads are deployed: about 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, about 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly slightly over 200 at heavy bomber bases. Another approximately 1,114 strategic warheads are in storage, along with about 1,477 nonstrategic warheads,” the Bulletin report states.

Notably, previous reports indicated that Russia has not exchanged official data with the United States about the structure of its strategic nuclear forces since 2023. 

The other significant point that the DIA assessment makes is that “Russia is expanding its nuclear posture to Belarus by establishing missile and nuclear-capable aircraft capabilities, renovating a nuclear weapons storage site, and training Belarusian crews to handle tactical nuclear weapons.”

As previously reported by the EurAsian Times, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed in December 2023 that Russia had completed shipments of nuclear weapons to Belarus. In December 2024, Moscow said it plans to deploy its advanced Oreshnik nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missile to Belarus in the second half of 2025.

Belarus, however, does not control the Russian warheads on its soil, though it has adapted its military doctrine to focus on the use of tactical nuclear weapons in defense of its sovereignty.

The DIA report also mentions that Russia has launched military drills and used nuclear-related rhetoric to demonstrate its resolve and to dissuade what it sees as Western meddling in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. 

However, the DIA assessment also categorically mentions that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in the conflict unless the Russian leadership judges that it faces an existential threat to the regime.

It is pertinent to note that while China has been positioned as a bigger threat by the Pentagon in recent years, the potential development of new nuclear weapons suggests that Moscow is still pretty much in the game.