After tumultuous relations with then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Indian PM Narendra Modi is set to visit Canada for the G7 summit, and he would be hoping to ‘fix’ derailed India-Canada ties. 

Analysts hope it is a step towards repairing ties that soured in 2023, after Trudeau pointed the finger at New Delhi’s involvement in murdering Hardeep Singh Nijjar, claims India vehemently rejected.

But an invitation by Ottawa’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney to Modi to attend the Group of Seven (G7) leaders summit in Canada offers a chance to “reset” relations, said India’s former top diplomat Harsh Vardhan Shringla.

“This is a new moment,” Ashok Malik of business consultancy The Asia Group told AFP. “A gesture has been made by Canada, and it has been reciprocated by India.”

India is not a member of the G7 — which comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — but the world’s most populous nation and fifth biggest economy has been invited to summits since 2019.

The invitation is also a pragmatic reflection of India’s role in global supply chains as an alternative to China, and with markets rocked by threats of punishing US tariffs.

“India is being called to the G7 because of its weight and size as an economy,” Malik said.

Trade

India and Canada trade stood at around $9 billion in 2023, with India exporting electrical machinery, pharmaceuticals, and iron products, and Canada exporting fertiliser and pulses.

Canadian pension funds have also cumulatively invested around $55 billion in India.

Shringla said it was India’s “window of opportunity”.

“We are expected to grow for the next two decades,” he told AFP.

“From that perspective, we will offer greater demand, a larger market, talent, technology, and services in the coming years.”

Modi’s visit — his first to Canada since 2015 — comes as Ottawa seeks to insulate its economy from trade policies of US President Donald Trump, who is also expected at the June 15-17 summit in Kananaskis, Alberta.

Modi will have his own eye on Trump, with an expected meeting to push a trade deal with the United States — India’s largest trading partner — before the July 9 deadline when Washington’s punishing 26 percent tariffs are set to resume.

“For Canada, mutually beneficial ties with India make sense today given how the Trump administration has upended Washington-Ottawa ties,” the Times of India wrote in an editorial.

“Add to this Trump’s propensity to weaponise tariffs, and both India and Canada have enough reasons to cooperate on trade.”

Sense Of Betrayal

But the unsolved investigation into the 2023 assassination of 45-year-old naturalised Canadian citizen Nijjar remains.

Canada is home to the largest Sikh community outside India.

That community includes activists for “Khalistan”, a fringe separatist movement seeking an independent state for the religious minority carved out of Indian territory.

The Khalistan campaign dates back to India’s 1947 independence and has been blamed for the assassination of a prime minister and the bombing of a passenger jet.

It has been a bitter issue between India and several Western nations with large Sikh populations.

New Delhi demands stricter action against the Khalistan movement, which is banned in India, with key leaders accused of “terrorism”.

Nijjar was a prominent supporter of the Khalistan movement.

Canada has accused India of directing a broad campaign targeting Sikh activists on Canadian soil, which Ottawa says has included intimidation, threats, and violence.

Protests are expected during Modi’s visit.

Carney’s invitation inflamed fringe Canadian Sikh groups who expressed “anger and a sense of betrayal”.

In an apparent reference to the tensions, Canada has stated that there was an “agreement to continue law enforcement dialogue and discussions addressing security concerns.”

But India sees Carney’s new leadership as a chance to put aside the fury that was directed at Trudeau, and discuss both the Nijjar probe and Indian concerns over criminal gangs linked to fringe groups that operate in both countries.

“India has always offered that, with these issues on the table, we need to increase cooperation to ensure mutual interests and security concerns are protected,” Shringla said.

He called Carney “a very mature individual” who views issues “from a larger perspective”.

Still, Modi’s trip is only a first step, The Hindu newspaper noted.

“It would be naive to imagine that these issues can be resolved in a summit,” the Indian newspaper wrote in its editorial on Thursday, but said it was “imperative” that ambassadors were restored and trade talks restarted.

“India and Canada must use every opportunity to reset ties,” it added.