Ukrainian officials say that despite media reports that the Trump administration is halting the delivery of critical air defense interceptors and other munitions, at least some U.S. arms continue to be provided and they have not been informed that these transfers will no longer be made. The news comes at a particularly critical time, as Russia has stepped up its aerial attacks. Earlier this week, Moscow launched its largest air barrage of the war, firing 477 drones and 60 missiles, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Overall, major and relatively sudden shortfalls in planned weapons deliveries could have wide-ranging impacts on the battlefield.

On Wednesday, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Patriot interceptors are still being provided.

“Deliveries are ongoing as of today,” Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, told the Ukrainian FREEDOM TV news outlet. “It would look very strange — it would look inhumane — to stop supplying interceptor missiles, especially for Patriot systems, which clearly and significantly protect civilians across Ukraine.”

Kyiv has not been officially informed about the arms cutoff, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry (MoD).

“Ukraine has not received any official notifications about the suspension or revision of the delivery schedules of the agreed defense assistance, so we proceed from the factual data and check the details for each element of the supply,” the MoD said in a statement Wednesday morning Eastern time. “The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has requested a telephone conversation with colleagues from the United States to further clarify the details. The results of contacts with our American partners will be further reported at the level of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.”

On Tuesday, National Public Radio reported Nick Schifrin said on X that the U.S. halted deliveries of PAC-3 MSE interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS ) ground-to-ground guided munitions fired by U.S.-made Army High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) and M270 MLRS, 155mm artillery rounds, Stinger man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, and Hellfire missiles.

In addition to that list, a retired high-ranking Ukrainian officer told The War Zone on Wednesday that the U.S. is also halting delivery of repurposed U.S.-supplied heat-seeking AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles Ukraine uses as an effector on some of its so-called FrankenSAM air defense systems.

We asked the White House to confirm that the U.S. would no longer send these weapons to Ukraine and received an answer provided to the media on Tuesday that the decision was based on preserving America’s weapons stocks.

“This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” Deputy White House Press Secretary Anna Kelly said. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran.”

Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO, doubled down on Kelly’s statement, telling Fox News on Wednesday that “This is what America First looks like. We first have to take care of the United States’ needs.”

The Pentagon’s policy chief Elbridge Colby drove the decision, which was made after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, leading to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles and precision munitions was sinking, Politico reported, citing three people familiar with the issue. Politico was the first to report on the arms cutoff.

There have long been concerns about U.S. stocks running low as challenges from China are increasing and the possibility of renewed hostilities with Iran remains. This is on top of the threat that looms over Europe from Russia.

It is unclear at this point how many weapons are included in the Trump administration’s decision or how quickly its effects will be felt on the battlefield, “though some U.S. officials said on Tuesday that the munitions were not scheduled to be shipped to Ukraine for several months,” according to The New York Times. “Only last week, after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in The Hague, Mr. Trump said he was open to selling more weapons to Ukraine. But by that time, the pause was already being planned at the Pentagon.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry told U.S. Charge d’Affaires John Ginkel that any delays in U.S. military aid would only prolong the war, the Foreign Ministry said, according to the Kyiv Independent. Ginkel met Deputy Foreign Minister Mariana Betsa at the request of Ukraine‘s chief diplomat, Andrii Sybiha. The Ukrainian side warned that “any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities will only encourage Russia to continue war and terror, rather than pursue peace.”

Not surprisingly, the news of the arms cutoff was greeted with glee in Moscow.

“As far as we understand, the reason for this decision was empty warehouses, lack of these weapons in warehouses. But in any case, the fewer weapons are supplied to Ukraine, the closer the end of the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a phone call, using the Kremlin moniker for Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine.

Analysis:

Aside from coming at a time when Russian drones and missiles are being launched at Ukraine in record numbers, the Trump administration’s decision to stem the flow of arms to Ukraine was made as Russia is pressing a big push at the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy in addition to continuing its slog in the east.

Earlier this year, U.S. officials announced a temporary pause on providing arms and some intelligence products to Ukraine in the wake of the blowout between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an Oval Office press conference called to discuss the peace process. Given Russia’s intent to keep fighting on the ground and attacking Ukrainian cities from the air, this cutoff could have far more devastating implications for Ukraine than the previous Trump administration move.

After nearly three and a half years of continuous large-scale fighting following Russia’s invasion and tens of billions of dollars in hardware transferred, as well as supplying Israel’s war against Hamas, Hezbollah, and later Iran, and dealing with the Houthi crisis around the Red Sea, American weapons stockpiles are under extreme pressure. Chronically underestimating stockpile requirements, very limited production capacity that is challenging to rapidly expand, and the unique nature of many of the components that go into advanced weapons means that restocking America’s munitions dumps will take time. Clearly the depletion rate is vastly outstripping even a growing production rate for many of these weapons as large investments have been poured into expanding the industrial base. Having transferred many legacy systems that had been held in reserve means that there is no fallback should more advanced munitions inventories run dry in a sustained conflict, and especially one of large scale. And this is becoming a glaring worry in regards to China.

What we don’t know is what these stockpiles actually look like at this point and what logic is behind the inventory levels being set for them. While the U.S. messaged repeatedly under the Biden Administration that the weapons would continue to flow without end as long as Russia continues its assault, that statement never matched reality. Nor did it take into account the subsequent conflicts that have since come and gone putting additional pressure on the stockpile. As we have stated for years, America’s weapons coffers are not a bottomless pit. Far from it in fact. And replenishing it takes many years or even decades, not just a matter of months, and huge amounts of money. Biden chose not to leverage the Defense Production Act in order to force industry to produce critical weapons at a faster pace after the war in Ukraine broke out. As many warned, that may have been a major misstep in retrospect. But still, Trump hasn’t done it either.

At the same time, there is major distrust with the current administration among many of Ukraine’s staunchest advocates. Without knowing what the stockpile actually looks like at this time, and getting independent analysis on its status, many will accuse the White House of turning its back on Ukraine when doing so isn’t necessary, at least from an American military logistical standpoint.

With major increases in production of key weapons still in the process of being realized and the world’s available surplus arms cabinet having already been raided to sustain the war, it isn’t clear what Ukraine will be able to do. Europe could step up even further, but they are scrambling to build up its own weapons inventories after decades of notorious neglect. The U.S. has long been viewed as the default supplier that will step in once many NATO countries’ shallow inventories are depleted. All the warning signs were there that this was the case, so it’s not like this is some new revelation. Now, with the U.S. being a less reliable or at least less generous security partner, European allies are trying to snap up whatever they can while building out new infrastructure for expanded local production. Once again, this will all take years to realize.

Based on the list of weapons we have seen so far, the biggest issue for Ukraine will be defending its skies from the constant onslaught of Russian missiles and drones. Massive barrages are soaking up throngs of effectors. While Ukraine has become more restrained in its use of its most capable and expensive missiles, in addition to coming up with new methods for dealing with long-range drones and some cruise missiles, it’s simply a numbers game — one that Russia will be increasingly capable of winning.

Russia has spun-up its industrial base to a wartime level. Supplies from China have helped greatly in this manner. Russia’s ability to produce Shahed-136 drones — which were originally imported from Iran — has exploded and will only continue to grow. The Shahed-136 has also become the primary standoff munition used to attack Ukrainian population centers. Russia is also doing all it can to provide a stream of more advanced cruise and ballistic missiles to rain down on Kyiv and other locations. As such, a pairing back of missile supplies to Ukraine is clearly a very welcome revelation in Moscow.

The potential drawdown or even halt of 155mm artillery rounds and M31 guided artillery rockets is also very concerning. While artillery is critical to providing consistent fire support along the front — a capability in which Russia already has a large advantage in volume — the GMLRS rounds give Ukraine the ability to make rapid precision strikes 50 miles from the rocket’s launch point. These weapons have become a staple of the conflict and Ukraine uses them for surgical destruction of everything from air defense sites to gatherings of personnel to artillery emplacements to bridges to command nodes.

We will have to see how this all plays out and just how big of a drop-off in deliveries Ukraine will face in the long term. Europe’s response will also be of great interest. But whatever the case may be, it seems clear that the lifeline the U.S. was providing to Ukraine in the form of weapons — especially advanced types — is not going to be what it once was.