Citizens of Nigeria often vote along ethnic or regional lines due to a complex interplay of historical legacies, socio-economic realities, political strategies, and deeply ingrained social identities.

This phenomenon is a significant factor in Nigerian politics and has been observed consistently across various elections.

Here's a breakdown of the key reasons:

1. Historical and Colonial Legacies:

   • Regionalism and Ethnicization of Politics: The colonial administration often governed Nigeria by dividing it into regions that largely corresponded with the territories of the major ethnic groups (Northern Region - predominantly Hausa-Fulani; Western Region - predominantly Yoruba; Eastern Region - predominantly Igbo). This regionalization fostered a sense of separate political identities and competition among these groups.

   • Formation of Ethnically Based Parties: In the pre-independence era, political parties emerged along clearly delineated ethnic and regional lines. For instance, the Northern People's Congress (NPC) was dominant in the North, the Action Group (AG) in the West, and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) in the East. This historical pattern established a precedent where political allegiance became intertwined with ethnic and regional identity.

2. Fear of Domination and Marginalization:

   • Resource Distribution: Nigeria's vast oil wealth has led to a "resource curse" where access to state power is often seen as the primary means to control and distribute resources. Different ethnic and regional groups fear being marginalized or exploited by other dominant groups if "their person" is not in power. This fear fuels a strong desire to vote for candidates from one's own group to ensure a share of national resources and development projects.

   • Prebendalism: The concept of "prebendalism" (coined by Richard Joseph) describes how political offices in Nigeria are often regarded as personal benefits for those who hold them, to be used to enrich themselves and their ethnic or religious group. This expectation encourages people to vote for their "own" candidate, hoping to benefit from their access to state resources.

   • Lack of Trust in Institutions: A general lack of trust in state institutions to deliver justice, provide equitable opportunities, or fairly distribute resources outside of ethnic or regional affiliations often pushes citizens to rely on their own group for support and protection.

3. Identity and Belonging:

   • Strong Social Bonds: Ethnicity and region provide a strong sense of identity, belonging, and shared history in Nigeria's diverse society. For many, voting for a co-ethnic or co-regional candidate is an expression of group solidarity and loyalty, prioritizing communal bonds over individual policy considerations.

   • Cultural Affinity: Shared language, customs, religion (which often aligns with ethnic and regional lines, e.g., Hausa-Fulani largely Muslim, Igbo largely Christian, Yoruba a mix), and historical narratives create a powerful bond that can easily be leveraged for political mobilization.

4. Elite Manipulation and Mobilization:

   • Exploitation of Divisions: Political elites often exploit existing ethnic and religious cleavages for political gain. They use rhetoric that appeals to primordial sentiments, fostering an "us vs. them" mentality to consolidate support within their ethnic or regional base.

   • Patronage Networks: Candidates build patronage networks along ethnic and regional lines, using promises of appointments, contracts, and other benefits to secure votes from their kinsmen.

   • Campaign Strategies: Campaign strategies frequently target specific ethnic or religious groups, emphasizing the candidate's shared background and portraying opponents as outsiders or threats to the group's interests.

5. Weak Political Ideologies and Party Structures:

   • Lack of Ideological Differentiation: Many Nigerian political parties lack clear ideological stances or consistent policy platforms. They are often seen as broad coalitions of diverse interests that primarily exist to capture power, rather than represent specific ideological positions.

   • Personality and Identity over Policy: In the absence of strong, issue-based party platforms, voters often resort to identity markers (ethnicity, religion, region) as primary criteria for choosing candidates.

   • Party as Ethnic Vehicle: Historically, and even in contemporary times, many parties are perceived as having a regional or ethnic base, making it difficult for them to garner widespread support across the entire country without forming alliances.

6. Economic Hardship and "Stomach Infrastructure":

   • Vulnerability to Inducement: High levels of poverty and socio-economic hardship make many voters vulnerable to material and monetary inducements (often referred to as "stomach infrastructure") during elections. These inducements are frequently channeled through ethnic or community leaders, reinforcing group loyalty.

   • Short-term Gains: When long-term governance benefits are scarce, citizens may prioritize short-term gains from co-ethnic politicians, hoping for direct handouts or patronage.

Statistical Evidence (General Trends): While precise, recent statistics broken down by specific ethnic groups voting for specific candidates can be hard to come by due to the nature of secret ballots and data collection, historical and qualitative analyses consistently show that voting patterns in Nigerian presidential and gubernatorial elections largely reflect ethno-regional and religious cleavages.

• For instance, analyses of past elections (e.g., 2015, 2019, 2023) often highlight how major presidential candidates tend to secure bloc votes from their "home" states and geo-political zones, where their dominant ethnic or religious group resides.

• A 2015 study mentioned that in the 2015 general elections, the president and vice president-elect received almost 90 percent of their votes based on ethno-regional identity.

• A study on the 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State found a significant relationship between ethnic identity and voting behavior, with a Pearson correlation of 0.783, indicating that ethnicity influenced voter choices. Similarly, religious identity also showed a significant correlation of 0.719.

• Research on the 2023 Presidential Election often concluded that the outcomes continued to reflect patterns where ethno-religious and regional affiliations significantly determined how electorates chose their president, despite efforts by some candidates to appeal across divides. The All Progressive Congress (APC), for example, tended to win in geopolitical zones with large Muslim populations and the northern Hausa-Fulani group, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) generally attracted more votes in areas with Christian and southern ethnic groups.

These trends underscore that while other factors like candidate personality, party affiliation, and socio-economic issues play a role, ethnicity and region remain powerful determinants of voting behavior in Nigeria.