The question of whether Iran should depend on China to boost its armed forces is a complex one with various benefits and drawbacks.

A review of recent events and historical context can shed light on this strategic decision.

Arguments for Iran depending on China:

• Access to Modern Technology: Decades of international sanctions have severely hampered Iran's ability to modernize its military, leaving it with an aging air force and an outdated air defense network. Recent conflicts have highlighted the vulnerabilities of these systems, which were proven ineffective against modern military technology. China, with its rapidly advancing defense industry, presents a potential source for advanced weaponry, including fighter jets and surface-to-air missile systems, which could help Iran close its military technology gap.

• Alternative to Russia: While Iran has historically sought arms from Russia, Moscow's ability to deliver on these deals has become less reliable due to its own ongoing conflicts and geopolitical constraints. This has led to a growing frustration in Tehran and a trend toward reorienting its military cooperation toward China.

• Economic and Diplomatic Support: The military relationship is part of a broader strategic partnership. China is Iran's most important trading partner and a crucial source of revenue, particularly for oil exports, in the face of U.S.-led sanctions. This economic dependency provides a foundation for deeper military cooperation. Both countries are also members of international blocs like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which provides a platform for diplomatic alignment and mutual support.

Arguments against Iran depending on China:

• China's Cautious Stance: China's foreign policy in the Middle East is primarily driven by economic interests and a desire to maintain a balanced approach with all regional powers. Beijing is hesitant to become overtly entangled in military conflicts and risks alienating other key partners, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with whom its commercial ties are vast. China has shown a tendency to avoid direct military intervention and has historically taken a cautious, and sometimes neutral, stance during regional crises.

• Limited Military Assistance: While China and Iran have engaged in joint military exercises and signed a comprehensive strategic partnership, the scale of their military-technical cooperation has been limited. China has previously demonstrated a pragmatic approach, at times even voting for UN sanctions against Iran. There's a risk that Beijing's support for Iran's military modernization may not be as robust or comprehensive as Tehran would hope, especially if it jeopardizes China's broader regional or global interests.

• Sovereignty Concerns: Some in Iran, including political activists, have expressed concern that a deeper dependency on China could undermine Iran's political independence and violate the country's long-standing foreign policy of "Neither East nor West." The fear is that sanctions have weakened Iran's ability to defend its national interests in a partnership with Beijing.

• Dual-Use and Sanctions Risks: Any overt military cooperation would expose Chinese companies to a greater risk of secondary U.S. sanctions. While China has found ways to circumvent some sanctions, the potential legal and reputational costs for Chinese firms involved in defense exports to Iran could be a deterrent.

Ultimately, while China offers a potential lifeline for Iran to address its critical military needs, the relationship is fraught with strategic complexities. Iran's desire for advanced weaponry must be weighed against the potential risks of a limited and cautious partnership with China, which prioritizes its own economic and geopolitical stability above all else.

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The move by Iran to deepen its military ties with China is a significant concern for the West, particularly the United States, the European Union, and Israel. Their reactions and policies are shaped by a shared apprehension about the potential for a more militarily capable Iran, which could destabilize the Middle East and pose a greater threat to their interests.

United States-

The U.S. has a policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran, primarily through sanctions, to curb its nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. As Iran turns to China for military hardware and technology, the U.S. has responded with targeted actions.

• Sanctions: The U.S. has consistently used sanctions to disrupt the flow of military-related goods and technology to Iran. The Treasury Department has sanctioned entities in China, as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan, for procuring technology and components for Iran's military, especially its drone program. These sanctions are designed to make it difficult and costly for Chinese companies to do business with Iran's defense industry.

• Deterrence: The U.S. maintains a strong military presence in the Middle East and has demonstrated a willingness to use military force, often in coordination with Israel, to counter perceived threats from Iran. This includes striking Iranian nuclear facilities and military assets.

• Diplomacy: While maintaining a hardline stance, some U.S. officials and analysts advocate for a return to a diplomatic solution, such as reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to limit Iran's nuclear program and provide a pathway for sanctions relief, which would reduce Iran's incentive to seek closer military ties with countries like China.

European Union-

The EU's position is more complex, as it has a mix of economic interests and security concerns regarding Iran and China.

• Diplomatic Pressure: The EU has sought to use its diplomatic channels to encourage China to play a constructive role in de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. European officials have pressed China to use its influence as a major trading partner to urge Iran to curb its nuclear program and comply with international agreements.

• Sanctions: The EU has its own set of sanctions against Iran, particularly in response to human rights abuses and the supply of drones to Russia. While its sanctions against China are less extensive than those of the U.S., the EU has shown a willingness to act on its own when its interests are at stake.

• Balancing Act: The EU faces a balancing act between its desire to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran and its economic ties with China. The bloc's response is often aimed at finding a middle ground that maintains diplomatic leverage without provoking a wider confrontation.

Israel-

Israel views a militarily stronger Iran, especially one with a nuclear capability, as an existential threat. The potential for China to provide advanced weaponry to Iran is a primary security concern.

• Preemptive Action: Israel has a long history of taking preemptive military action against what it perceives as threats to its security, including striking Iranian targets in neighboring countries and, on occasion, inside Iran itself. The provision of modern military technology by China to Iran would likely increase Israel's sense of urgency and potentially lead to more aggressive pre-emptive actions.

• Intelligence and Counter-Proliferation: Israel focuses heavily on intelligence gathering and covert operations to disrupt Iran's military and nuclear programs. The country is likely working to identify and target any Chinese-supplied technology or components that could enhance Iran's military capabilities.

• Alliance with the U.S.: Israel's security strategy is deeply intertwined with its alliance with the United States. Israel relies on the U.S. for military aid, advanced technology, and diplomatic support. It works closely with the U.S. to ensure a coordinated response to the threat posed by Iran and its growing ties with China.

In summary, the West's response to Iran's deepening military relationship with China is a multi-faceted approach involving sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and the threat of military action. While the U.S. and Israel tend to favor a more confrontational stance, the EU often seeks to balance its security concerns with a more diplomatic and multilateral approach. All three, however, are united in their resolve to prevent Iran from acquiring a military capability that would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East.

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After recent conflict with Israel, Iran is actively working to replenish its lost military equipment and enhance its air defense capabilities.

The war exposed significant vulnerabilities in Iran's military, particularly its air defense network and missile stockpile, and Iran is now seeking to address these weaknesses through a combination of domestic production and foreign assistance.

Key Actions by Iran:

• Rebuilding Air Defense: Iran's air defense network was heavily targeted and damaged by Israeli and U.S. strikes. State media affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have since claimed that Iran has "rebuilt and modernized" its systems, suggesting that replacements have been deployed. This is a critical focus, as establishing "air superiority" over Iran was a key goal for Israel during the conflict. Reports also indicate Iran has taken possession of new Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries, suggesting a rapid move to rebuild its capabilities with foreign help.

• Reliance on China: Iran is increasingly turning to China to bolster its military. A 25-year "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" is the framework for this cooperation. After the recent war, there have been reports of China delivering surface-to-air missile batteries to Iran, with payment allegedly being made through oil shipments. This suggests that while China may be cautious about overt military deals, it is willing to provide "defensive" weapons that can help Iran protect its sovereignty and key assets.

• Cooperation with Russia: Iran's military relationship with Russia is also a major factor. In January 2025, Iran and Russia signed a 20-year "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" treaty that covers various areas, including defense. This agreement has deepened a relationship that has already seen Iran provide Russia with drones for use in its conflict with Ukraine. While Russia's own military commitments may limit the amount of hardware it can provide, the partnership offers a framework for technology sharing and coordinated action.

• Domestic Production and Innovation: Iran's own defense industry remains a core component of its strategy. The country has long produced its own drones and ballistic missiles, and it has sought to improve these systems. Iran's actions are now likely focused on replenishing its depleted missile stockpile and enhancing the technology of its existing systems to be more effective in future conflicts. The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese, Hong Kong, and Taiwanese entities for procuring technology for Iran's military and drone programs, indicating that Iran is using a global network to acquire the necessary components.

• Strategic Re-evaluation: The war has led to a strategic re-evaluation within Iran's leadership. The creation of a new "Defense Council" under the Supreme National Security Council suggests that Iran is concerned about "fragmentation in decision-making" and is trying to develop a more efficient and coordinated process for responding to future threats. This reflects an understanding that its previous strategy, which relied heavily on a network of proxy forces, has been significantly damaged. Iran is now balancing its traditional asymmetric warfare with a renewed focus on direct conventional capabilities to deter further attacks.