The New Authoritarian Playbook describes how contemporary leaders consolidate power by using subtle, often legal, methods instead of traditional, violent coups.

This shift moves away from outright force and towards a strategy of gradual erosion of democratic norms and institutions, creating a system that is authoritarian in practice but maintains a veneer of democratic legitimacy.

1. Shift to Subtle Control

Modern authoritarians have learned that overt military coups or the immediate abolition of multi-party elections are more likely to provoke international condemnation and domestic resistance. Instead, they use a more sophisticated approach, often referred to as "soft authoritarianism" or "autocratization by stealth." This method involves a gradual, piecemeal dismantling of democracy, making each individual action seem minor or even justifiable. The goal is to avoid triggering alarms until it's too late. The control is not about eliminating democratic institutions but hollowing them out from the inside. They operate within the existing legal and constitutional framework, making their actions appear legitimate to both their supporters and international observers.

2. The Mechanics of "Democratic Backsliding" 

Democratic backsliding is the process by which a country shifts away from democracy. It rarely happens with a single, dramatic event. Instead, it occurs through a series of incremental steps that weaken the core institutions of a democratic state.

• Weakening of Institutions: The judiciary and legislature are key targets. The judiciary is often compromised by packing courts with loyalists, which erodes its independence and makes it a tool of the executive. The legislature is marginalized by a dominant party using its majority to pass laws that concentrate power, sideline the opposition, and prevent effective oversight of the government.

• Manipulation of Elections: While elections are still held, they are no longer "free and fair" in practice. This is achieved by gerrymandering electoral districts, using state resources to fund the incumbent party's campaign, intimidating voters, or controlling the electoral commission itself. The playing field is heavily tilted in favor of the incumbent.

• Suppression of Political Opposition: This is done through a variety of means that fall short of outright imprisonment. Opponents may face politically motivated investigations, libel lawsuits, or be targeted by state-controlled media. Civil society organizations and independent journalists are also harassed, with the goal of silencing all dissenting voices.

3. The Role of Legal and Constitutional Changes-

The new playbook heavily relies on legal and constitutional changes to legitimize the power grab. These changes are often framed as necessary reforms to improve efficiency, combat corruption, or protect national security.

• Constitutional Amendments: Rulers use their legislative majority to amend the constitution, often to remove term limits, granting the executive more time in power. They may also alter the constitution to grant the president emergency powers or weaken the powers of the other branches of government.

• Passing Restrictive Laws: New laws are passed that restrict freedom of assembly, speech, and the press. These laws are often broadly written, allowing the government to use them against any group or individual it deems a threat.

• Referendums: Sometimes, the executive will hold a referendum to legitimize its changes. This allows the leader to claim they have a direct mandate from the people, bypassing the traditional democratic processes and making it harder for the opposition to object.

By utilizing these legalistic maneuvers, leaders can centralize power and dismantle democratic safeguards while maintaining the pretense of a rule-of-law-based system.